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Unrealistic life expectancy?
Old 11-05-2013, 03:27 PM   #1
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Unrealistic life expectancy?

In anticipation of FIRE at age 59 Ĺ, I have been doing a lot of calculations to see if Iíve saved enough. Iíve noticed this is a very normal and popular thing to do when nearing retirement. Anyway most of the calculators out there want you to choose a life expectancy. I have used various ages from 85 to 100 and I think Iíll do ok as long as I donít break any world longevity records. But realistically Iíve been taking notice of how old famous people are when they die, Iíve seen ranges from 60ís to 90ís sometimes there is a abnormally young or old death but most seem to fall somewhere in the 70 Ė 85 range. Makes it obvious why you get the promise of a big monthly SS check if you wait till 70. My own life expectancy is about 83 according to one insurance calculator I used, and I have to say I think the insurance companies are pretty good at figuring this as their bottom line is at stake. So why do FA want to make it seem like you will live to be 100 and need enough savings to take you 10 years beyond that? Perhaps Iím just imagining that people seem to think they are going to live to very ripe old ages or maybe I just have too much time to think about this stuff. Anyway excuse my rambling. On a personal note: my father died at 60 ( WWII wounded vet, many outside health issues, smoking etc.) my mother made it to 88, although the last 5 years were not very good, Iíll consider myself lucky to make 85. So as the saying goes, when I retire I figure Iíll have 20 good years left.
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Old 11-05-2013, 03:30 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chief04010 View Post
So as the saying goes, when I retire I figure I’ll have 20 good years left.
+1

Problem is, we still have to figure on financing the however many "not-so-good" years that may follow.
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Old 11-05-2013, 03:38 PM   #3
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+1

Problem is, we still have to figure on financing the however many "not-so-good" years that may follow.
That is when I start spending the kids/grand kids inheritance.
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Old 11-05-2013, 03:51 PM   #4
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In my case, I do not want to show up at my daughter's house, hat in hand, if/when I am 83 (or whatever my actual life expectancy may be).

My present financial plan goes to age 95, and if I get to my 80's I will re-vamp my financial plan at that time to take me over 100. That will mean some cutting back but I will still have enough to be 100% self sufficient.

As for how long I will actually live, an expectation unrelated to financial planning, that is a different matter. I have a family history of longevity, but then one can never tell. I guess I expect I would probably die in my 80's? but I will always have hope for a few more years.
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Old 11-05-2013, 03:51 PM   #5
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Even tho I don't know what tomorrow will bring, I finally chose the 'termination date' at 90 years old.

That's my story and I'm stickin' to it.
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Old 11-05-2013, 03:56 PM   #6
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I obviously understand that I cannot be immortal, but I run a non-amortizing perpetual portfolio plan. There is just something I do not like about a drop dead date.

Ha
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Old 11-05-2013, 04:32 PM   #7
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I wouldn't rule out the possibility that there may come a point where medical science can halt or reverse the aging process. I've heard people in the field discussing that we may see something like this in our lifetimes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indefinite_lifespan


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I obviously understand that I cannot be immortal, but I run a non-amortizing perpetual portfolio plan. There is just something I do not like about a drop dead date.

Ha
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Old 11-05-2013, 04:55 PM   #8
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I wouldn't rule out the possibility that there may come a point where medical science can halt or reverse the aging process. I've heard people in the field discussing that we may see something like this in our lifetimes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indefinite_lifespan
Hot dog, I'll be the first to sign up! So the rest of you will just have to form a line behind me....
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Old 11-05-2013, 04:59 PM   #9
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Hot dog, I'll be the first to sign up! So the rest of you will just have to form a line behind me....
No way! Once I'm done, I'm done. And I don't want to be reincarnated either.

Now get off my lawn!
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Old 11-05-2013, 05:07 PM   #10
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No way! Once I'm done, I'm done. And I don't want to be reincarnated either.

Now get off my lawn!
Oh goodie, does that mean I get an extra reincarnation? No such thing? Oh well. But when I go it will be only with a whole lot of kicking, screaming, and protests on my part.

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Old age should burn and rave at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light. - - D. Thomas
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Old 11-05-2013, 05:11 PM   #11
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Now there's a thought experiment: What happens with all those COLA'd DB pension plans that are counting on their beneficiaries to die on an actuarial schedule?

Hey, a deal's a deal, right?
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Old 11-05-2013, 05:21 PM   #12
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The good news is even if you live to 100 (or 200!!) it doesn't change by a lot how much you need to retire now (due to the power of compounding).
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Old 11-05-2013, 05:24 PM   #13
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My own life expectancy is about 83 according to one insurance calculator I used, and I have to say I think the insurance companies are pretty good at figuring this as their bottom line is at stake.
The insurance company doesn't need to figure out your life expectancy, just the average of a bunch of people like you. Your job is much more difficult with much less certainty and much more variability.
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Old 11-05-2013, 05:32 PM   #14
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I wouldn't rule out the possibility that there may come a point where medical science can halt or reverse the aging process.
I've been hearing that kind of stuff for decades. I'm pretty skeptical.

Otoh, perhaps I need to figure "head freezing" into my retirement plan budget.
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Old 11-05-2013, 05:44 PM   #15
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Old 11-05-2013, 06:04 PM   #16
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Old 11-05-2013, 06:17 PM   #17
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Many people have been comforted by this site:
https://www.livingto100.com

But let's face it: for 99.99% of us, we have no idea when we might go.

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I'll eat when I'm hungry and drink when I'm dry, and if whiskey don't kill me I'll live till I die.
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Old 11-05-2013, 06:24 PM   #18
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Many people have been comforted by this site:
https://www.livingto100.com

But let's face it: for 99.99% of us, we have no idea when we might go.
My grandfather knew exactly when he was going to die. The judge told him.
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Old 11-05-2013, 07:06 PM   #19
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Interesting. I saw an article on this subject just a few weeks ago. It seems the human body is made so that it can't survive more than 120-some years at the outside. In other words, we all have a built in expiration date.
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Old 11-05-2013, 08:17 PM   #20
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Two points that most on this board probably already know.

Actuarial life expectancy is a median number. I read somewhere that the increase in SS payment for each delayed year (around 8%) is "actuarially" sound. So if you think you'll live longer than the median life expectancy, it pays to wait.

Also, as you age, your actuarial expected age at death also increases. ie. my life expectancy today at age 53 is 29.3 yearsn for an age of 82.3, but if I was 70, it would be 16.4 for an age of 86.
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