Items accepted by "gospel" which are not proven to improve outcomes include prostate exam, breast exam, multiple "panel" blood tests, fecal occult blood, stress tests and more. Much of this is contaminated by the nasty frequency of false positives which in turn lead to a whole new round of fruitless additional testing, etc. (the Bayes problem as you note).
Rich, with all due respect, and you know I respect your posts on this health board, I think this particular statement is misleading and potentially dangerous to some. Let me tell you why, and feel free to counter.
You might place me in the category of a rare save for prostate cancer from screening. Fine, I'm not going to argue my particular case. But I will use PC since (thankfully) that is the only condition I'm personally familiar with.
There are two misleading portions to your (well-meaning) statement. First about prostate exam not proven to improve outcomes. How about the long term research at the University of Gothenburg who conducted a long term trial of 20,000 men between 50 and 65 years old, randomized to either get PSA screening every two years or not. After 14 years of looking at these men, the study found that the PSA screened group had HALF the PC-specific mortality rate of the non-screened group. Why was that? Because those that were screened and found to be suspicious for PC had options for treatment (or not, depending on individuals). Now, you may argue that there were many false positives, that there are other studies, etc, but I think studies like these argue against the type of statement you made. Even if such a study does not absolutely prove with 100% certainty (what does) that screening is effective, tell the average guy that here is a painless blood test that has been shown to reduce PC deaths by 50% in studies of 20,000 men over 14 years. How many will say, thanks Doc but that's not enough proof for me, I don't want the blood test?
The second misleading portion of your statement is the (unintended I'm sure) implication that a PSA test leads to rounds of "fruitless" testing, with "nasty consequences" which in many minds reads as "costly," "painful," etc. Nothing could be further from the truth.
As you know, PSA testing is just another number from a blood test, and is not PC-specific. But what it allows us to do is to establish our personal baseline from which we can monitor future progress. Some increase is expected as we age, and some of us have higher numbers than others for unknown reasons. But a single suspicious PSA means very little other than, let's check it again in 6 months, in a year, whatever. Does that cause mental anguish? Yes. Is the mental anguish part of life, and something completely meaningless for someone whose life might be saved? You bet.
So the PSA is high and gets rechecked. Still, so what? Most of the time the uro will just say that we may have benign prostate enlargement, and should take some antibiotics to bring it down. I know you are the expert on this stuff, I'm just spelling it out for the average guy like myself who doesn't know. So we take pills for a month or two, the PSA comes back down, and we get on with our lives. That is the most common outcome, no big deal, no pain, not that costly, and it does help the urinary function.
Now about the man whose PSA doesn't come down with pills but keeps going up over months or years. A biopsy will probably be done. Again, no big deal, for me it was less painful than filling a dental cavity, though not pleasant from the mental perspective. In many (most?) cases the biopsy will either be negative or be PC that is so early that nothing needs to be done at that point or, possibly, ever.
It's only in the case in which PC is found at a sufficiently advanced stage that there is a high likelihood for PC specific mortality that active treatment comes into play. And there are so many treatments that the main problem at this point is deciding what to do. It's no longer a question of only open surgery as you well know. There is radiation, there are new ultrasound methods, etc. And even for surgery there is robotic pinhole surgery, which I had, with minimal side effects.
Now, you may consider that all of the above is "fruitless," and based on sheer numbers a case might be made that not that many cancers will be found. But that would not be a medical argument, it would be a statistical argument.
In summary, I believe your statement, as well-intended and as informed as it is, is also misleading and potentially dangerous because it steers men away from testing that recent studies suggest leads to cures, and does not explain the way testing is conducted.
I only addressed PC but I suspect similar stories are there for breast cancer and other types of screening.
As far as Medicare paying, that's a separate issue and even if they didn't I would gladly pay out of pocket for some of these tests.
Here is a metalink to the study I referenced:
http://prostatecancerinfolink.net/2...-suggest-that-screening-does-lower-mortality/