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powerplay · 05-04-2016, 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by qt333

I got docked the same because I drink alcohol.

Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum

I think there is a sweet spot in there, maybe 1 drink a day. Or maybe it is all random and they are just messing with us to get us interested in those annuities.

txtig · 05-04-2016, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MichaelB

My guess is this is the calculator they give to the sales critters, and the actuaries use a different one.

+1

Totoro · 05-04-2016, 03:02 PM

Got 90y in both calculators. Has to do with my current age, 35.

Funnily enough the biggest factor to determine how old you'll get is how old one already is ..

What I find interesting is that the variation in life spans has been dropping alot. Most health advances gave us a better chance of reaching a certain minimum age (say, 75) but don't extend the maximum age by much.

So you still have >100y old as something that happens very rarely, while 80y olds are pretty common now.

NW-Bound · 05-04-2016, 07:49 PM

For me, life expectancy = 92.

But what is this? 75% chance of living to 83. I may just fall into that unlucky 25% who do not make it to 83.

PS. A life expectancy of 92 means there's a 50/50 chance for me to get there. There's no 100% at any age. I may just drop dead next week because of a heart attack, or a stroke. Or I may get diagnosed with cancer and die next year despite all the treatments available.

**rodi** · 05-04-2016, 08:52 PM

First calculator said 92. Second one said 82. I think one of the issues with the 2nd calculator was that I admitted to not going in for regular checkups. I go for a checkup about every 5 years....

My mom died at age 67. My dad at age 77. Grandparents died at 67, 72, 71, and 91. I'm hoping to be like Gram (91). My brother died at 48... Cancer runs strong in our family - all of those deaths except Gram were cancer.

I plan for 95. I hope for 85 unless cancer gets me sooner.

Sunset · 05-04-2016, 09:04 PM

Darn, I have to get busy and plan some trips..... before I pop

Moemg · 05-04-2016, 09:07 PM

The first calculator was 79 and the second was 93 . My Mom just died at 99 and all the women in my family live long lives . My Aunt is 82 and looks like 70 .I would settle on 85.

NW-Bound · 05-04-2016, 10:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound

For me, life expectancy = 92.

But what is this? 75% chance of living to 83. I may just fall into that unlucky 25% who do not make it to 83.

PS. A life expectancy of 92 means there's a 50/50 chance for me to get there. There's no 100% at any age. I may just drop dead next week because of a heart attack, or a stroke. Or I may get diagnosed with cancer and die next year despite all the treatments available.

OK, I just saw the 2nd calculator posted by imoldernu. It says 93 for me.

Should I believe these, and lower my WR further?

I will believe it when I get there. Heck, if I get there I will not remember anything about any longevity calculator.

dixonge · 05-05-2016, 07:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by imoldernu

Here's a different site, with a few more health questions.

I gave me three more years... from 95 to 98... I simply can't afford that!..

Lifespan Calculator â€“ Test Your Life Expectancy || NM

And that one is from an insurance company, which probably sells annuities as well...

I found a different one and it told me 98. Lots of good questions, but also provided a referral link to an investing site (Betterment).

Danmar · 05-05-2016, 07:46 AM

Calculator says 92 my personal goal is 90. Have a younger wife and want to leave a substantial legacy, so financially I'm planning for the stash to never run out. Based on 90 I'm about 30% through retirement. So far so good.

NW-Bound · 05-05-2016, 08:12 AM

The life expectancy thinggy is mainly to encourage people to have good habits. Yes, one should be encouraged to do healthy things, but there is never any guarantee.

Steve Jobs died at 56. Andy Grove died recently at 79. I would think their life expectancy was much higher using these calculators, but they probably fell into the group of the unlucky 5 or 10%. Our number may be up anytime.

Totoro · 05-05-2016, 08:26 AM

Steve Jobs was unlucky, but also an idiot.

Quote:

According to Steve Jobs’ biographer, Walter Isaacson, the Apple mastermind eventually came to regret the decision he had made years earlier to reject potentially life-saving surgery in favor of alternative treatments like acupuncture, dietary supplements and juices

photoguy · 05-05-2016, 10:28 AM

I tracked down some more details on the model and they can be found here: How Long Will you Live?

I was mistaken and it's not strictly a pure regression model. They do use a cox PH regression but it appears that they have a whole bunch of manual fudge factors: How Long Will I Live? - The numbers . This is disappointing to me.

It's not clear what variables are in the regression vs a fudge factor. I suspect there's double counting of some effects leading to the really high life expectancies (as noted by others in this thread). And it's a linear model so there's no diminishing returns.

W2R · 05-05-2016, 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Totoro

Steve Jobs was unlucky, but also an idiot.

That is really sad. I did not know it but apparently he had a type of pancreatic cancer that wasn't as difficult to treat as most.

Quote:

"he had a very slow growing type of pancreatic cancer, and that his was one of the 5% "that can actually be cured"

https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...surgery-regret

Unfortunately, he apparently delayed surgery in favor of alternative treatments until it was too late.

Koogie · 05-05-2016, 10:39 AM

No male on my fathers side has ever lived past their early fifties(cancers mostly)

I'm watching my elder brothers health with interest. He's apprehensive...

Mind you he resembles my mum and I am the spitting image of my dad.

The calculator told me 89. I base my estimates on 83.

I guess if the calculator is correct, during those last 6 years I'll just have to mooch off someone young, rich and dumb... takers ? lol

HFWR · 05-05-2016, 02:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Koogie

I guess if the calculator is correct, during those last 6 years I'll just have to mooch off someone young, rich and dumb... takers ? lol

I'm only one of those three, so off the hook!

I'm assuming mid-80s or so, calculators be damned, but I don't plan my finances around that.

robnplunder · 05-05-2016, 03:08 PM

91 & 90 on both tests, respectively. Voted for 90 though. My parent's generation (uncles, aunts, parents) are in 70 - 80 year old age group and still relatively healthy. Perhaps, I may live to 90 as the test result says. I will revise my expectation if my parent's generation don't make it past 80. Here's to their health!