Here's an interesting quote from Arthur Schopenhauer supplied by by John Tierney in NYT that helps to show how these wrong headed ideas (that saturated fat is deadly) get adopted and grow. It's a favorite topic of mine also, as it illustrates the haplessness of public judgment, and by extension modern mass democratic processes.
Schopenhauer on Cascades
By John Tierney
The last post generated some excellent nominations for cascades, and I welcome more, as well as suggestions for stopping mistaken cascades.
To inspire you, here’s a great description of the phenomenon from the 19th-century German philosopher, Arthur Schopenhauer. (Hat tip: Vladimir Lojen.) Although the math of cascades wouldn’t be worked out for another century or two, Schopenhauer beautifully described both the informational cascade and the reputational cascade. Here’s the excerpt from chapter 3 of the “The Art of Controversy”:
When we come to look into the matter, so-called universal opinion is the opinion of two or three persons; and we should be persuaded of this if we could see the way in which it really arises.
We should find that it is two or three persons who, in the first instance, accepted it, or advanced and maintained it; and of whom people were so good as to believe that they had thoroughly tested it. Then a few other persons, persuaded beforehand that the first were men of the requisite capacity, also accepted the opinion. These, again, were trusted by many others, whose laziness suggested to them that it was better to believe at once, than to go through the troublesome task of testing the matter for themselves. Thus the number of these lazy and credulous adherents grew from day to day; for the opinion had no sooner obtained a fair measure of support than its further supporters attributed this to the fact that the opinion could only have obtained it by the cogency of its arguments. The remainder were then compelled to grant what was universally granted, so as not to pass for unruly persons who resisted opinions which every one accepted, or pert fellows who thought themselves cleverer than any one else.
When opinion reaches this stage, adhesion becomes a duty; and henceforward the few who are capable of forming a judgment hold their peace. Those who venture to speak are such as are entirely incapable of forming any opinions or any judgment of their own, being merely the echo of others’ opinions; and, nevertheless, they defend them with all the greater zeal and intolerance. For what they hate in people who think differently is not so much the different opinions which they profess, as the presumption of wanting to form their own judgment; a presumption of which they themselves are never guilty, as they are very well aware. In short, there are very few who can think, but every man wants to have an opinion; and what remains but to take it ready-made from others, instead of forming opinions for himself?
Since this is what happens, where is the value of the opinion even of a hundred millions? It is no more established than an historical fact reported by a hundred chroniclers who can be proved to have plagiarized it from one another; the opinion in the end being traceable to a single individual.
Schopenhauer on Cascades - TierneyLab Blog - NYTimes.com
Actually, I've got to do more walking. I was doing pretty good the last few years but my walking buddy(dog) has slowed in her senior years so looks like I have to go it alone. Probably do some today. It will be sad not having her at my side.
