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2 year market outlook?
Old 09-01-2015, 04:37 PM   #1
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2 year market outlook?

Hey readers, I was recently looking over my brokerage account to determine my exposures since many of the talking heads are saying expect more market declines. I mainly saw no issues not to stay the course, except for two things. I have some money in HSBC notes and Goldman Sachs notes that both expire in the summer of 2017. Neither offers interest, they are notes that return on principle, and the principle is guided by the Dow (GS note) and the S&P low volitility (HSBC note). I bough these in 2010 (GS) and 2012 (hsbc) so even with markets down now, I still have an overall profit of 7.8% a year average at this time. Essentially, where do the gurus on here estimate the markets in the near term of two years? Worth it to let mature, or collect my profits and invest in something else?

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Old 09-01-2015, 05:35 PM   #2
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If talking heads actually could predict anything, they would be fabulously rich and long ago retired.

Yes, I have achieved work / life balance.
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Old 09-01-2015, 06:25 PM   #3
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I'm a buy and generally hold kind of guy. So my kind of investor would probably leave things as is unless I was excited about placing that money somewhere or if the original basis for making that investment was no longer valid. Bottom line is don't have any idea what the market will be like in 2 yrs but if I didn't expect a general trend upward, wouldn't be invested in the first place. For example, my only recent changes caused by this recent market dip have been to sell some bond funds that weren't producing any income (price drops more than dividends add to fund) and buy some stocks that were low priced and had long history of paying dividends. Didn't sell anything else.
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Old 09-01-2015, 08:05 PM   #4
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All you can do is assume that the market will follow the trends of the last 130+ years.

Of course, if we are in a deflation spiral, all bets are off. You can look to Japan's market at that point. I think we have deflation on the horizon, not inflation.
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Old 09-01-2015, 10:28 PM   #5
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Right now you have 7.8% profit.

This will not go up if things stay the same, does not even pay dividends.

If the markets go further down, you get less (like having an etf you are forced to sell in 2 years.), you cannot hold onto it until things go back up.

If the markets go up, you will get more profit (but you could do this by selling this and buying some broad etf as well).

Therefore I say sell, buy something like VTI and VXUS and sit on them collecting dividends and wait for the markets to go up.
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Old 09-02-2015, 04:22 AM   #6
Confused about dryer sheets
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What would a deflation spiral entail?

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