45 years old, 3 teenage kids, recent $$ windfall, can i retire?

Well I'm back to All Cash after riding the pop in the markets up 40k and back down yesterday/today I went back to cash -- it's just such a precarious market right now that we NEED a significant enough pullback to keep moving higher.


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Pullback continues - thinking way lower - talk of global Recession being past around...

If this scenario continues to play out - would you guys suggest sticking to cash and drawing down until there seems to be a bottom forming or move into TIPs / TLT / GLD?


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Pullback continues - thinking way lower - talk of global Recession being past around...

If this scenario continues to play out - would you guys suggest sticking to cash and drawing down until there seems to be a bottom forming or move into TIPs / TLT / GLD?
I'd suggest you reinvest in index funds, turn off your computer and TV, and forget about trying to time the market. But that's just me... :)
 
I'd suggest you reinvest in index funds, turn off your computer and TV, and forget about trying to time the market. But that's just me... :)
Me too .. 'cept the computer part. That stays on..:)
 
Well... Not so easy for me to buy and close my eyes unfortunately :)

Had I not sold yesterday would be down $100k today ... Would rather let this settle down before rebuilding a portfolio. Particularly since ex-div date is weeks away...


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I do intend to "get back in" prior to the next Div ex-date (mid Sept?) to at least be positioned as if I was depending on it for living expenses.

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Why would you get back in prior to ex div date? If you do, yes you get the div and also the tax iability. I wait till after ex div date and buy the div diluted shares and don't pay the taxes.
 
I'd suggest you reinvest in index funds, turn off your computer and TV, and forget about trying to time the market. But that's just me... :)


Same opinion today?


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Your a better man than me! I can't stomach a 20% drawdown for the sake of staying invested.
The S&P is down around 3% YTD. This is normal volatility.
 
The S&P is down around 3% YTD. This is normal volatility.


There is nothing normal about what is occurring right now. 3% I'm afraid is just a start....


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There is nothing normal about what is occurring right now. 3% I'm afraid is just a start....
This is why you should follow this advice. The world economy is growing right now, and will continue to do so with total disregard to the blather and fuss coming from pundits and talking heads.
 
There is nothing normal about what is occurring right now. 3% I'm afraid is just a start...

Not at all, this is normal variation. One of the best explanations I've read is this:

Bear in mind that what drives stock prices is company profits after their expenses. So think about it - has anything happened that will dramatically affect, long term, the number of bottles of Coca Cola, John Deer tractors, Toyota cars, rolls of toilet paper or any other product that is sold? If there is I am unaware of it so those companies will continue to sell their products and earn profits.

Imagine a guy walking at a steady pace through a grassy field with a 10-month-old Labrador on a long leash. The puppy is running ahead, then finds something interesting and stops or even runs back to where he was, behind the guy holding the leash. But the average speed of the puppy is going to be exactly the same as the guy holding the leash.

The guy walking is company profits, slow and steady. The puppy is stock prices, affected by no one knows what, and that's going to be volatile. And that's what we're seeing now.

I can't give credit to the author because I forgot what book I read it in.
 
On the contrary, the S&P has dropped 5% or more 92 times since 1960. So, pretty normal.


Still thinking this is normal variation?


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Your a better man than me! I can't stomach a 20% drawdown for the sake of staying invested.

I don't have the stomach for that either. The older we became and the closer to retirement we neared the absolute dollar value of the drops became too horrifying to me.

We had annual expenses like yours are now a few years ago and just decided to cut back on the excess and live on what we had available (savings, pensions, future SS and maybe some part-time work) and not have to work unless we wanted to. (Maybe you have enough to live on a $200K run rate as it is - I don't know much about real estate as an investment.)

We kept the house since that has been an appreciating asset most years, stayed in a high cost of living area because we like the climate, scenery and things to do and just cut out a lot of stuff like cable channels no one was watching, started keeping a price book and stopped shopping at over-priced stores.

Our young adult kids didn't seem to get the memo on our new, lower annual budget so that has been a challenge. But in a way I think it was good we became more frugal before they were completely off the payroll because they still have been forced to be a lot more budget conscious than they had been if we had stayed on the same spending trajectory we were on when we worked more.
 
Still thinking this is normal variation?


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Yes, but I gave up my paranoia after October 1987;)

Having stayed invested through Oct. 1987, 2000-2001, the 2008-09 meltdown (35% haircut on values across the board on that one) and still finding myself in a place where I no longer need to work, I'm not sweating this.

Having some margin in your income/expense/net worth calculation helps, as does having enough liquidity to sit back and just watch the emotional market participants do what they're going to do.
 
Still thinking this is normal variation?


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While I think selling before each downturn and buying before each uptick would yield great results, I'm just a little hazy on exactly when those events are going to be (the future ones I mean). So I'll stick with the market and its volatile but proven-in-the-long-term returns.

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Wow that's lots of $$$. Well, I must admit that the recent dip did have me re-checking my spreadsheet to determine how many years of expenses I have in cash and bonds. I guess I have enough and am more or less on my target AA. I know this because I had NO desire to chase equities in the dip.

Well, it's good that I'm lazy because I'm not too bright about this market stuff. Hopefully, I'm too lazy to get into trouble...

What's really got me worried... Well, I was invited to record an electric guitar track for someone on Bandhub (online music collaboration & band jam). The trouble is that I don't know the song very well and the style is outside of my comfort zone. I'm determined to do it, but this could me a bit w*rk, playing electric guitar all day... Life's tough in ER!
 
As of the close of the market today - I have spared myself a $400k drawdown. I am considering getting back in tomorrow AM as i expect a bounce before heading lower again.
 
Good luck! (You'll need it.)


With futures popping again this morning I will not be a buyer here - I'm expecting another rug pull unless Yellen takes a Sept hike off the table.


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Agree with others - this is still normal variation. In fact, at least so far, it seems a lot like August 2011. I think there are three points to consider
1. If you had a well diversified (stock/bond) portfolio in 2008/9 and had just ridden it through, you would have been in great shape just a few years later.
2. There is always Marbene Faber's method of momentum trading where one moves in and out of assets periodically when the adjusted price drops below the 200SMA or, for a little less noise, when the 50SMA crosses the 200SMA. It does work, no it's not always perfect and yes, you may trigger more taxable events by doing this in a taxable account. It can whipsaw or trigger you to get in/out later than you would have desired. For fun, I do this in a very small account I have - it keeps my hands busy and away from doing anything in my "real" accounts.
3. Finally, if you are getting close to retirement or in retirement and don't think you stomach large drops in stocks, then perhaps you're too aggressively invested in equities to begin with and you might want to reconsider your asset allocation. But you have to honestly ask yourself what sort of drops from the historical record you could have stomached.

As for me: Being a relative newbie at the time, when close to the bottom in 2008/9, I panicked and sold. A couple of months later, I un-panicked and bought back in. It was still close to the bottom so I didn't fall very far behind. But I still have a loss carryover in my taxes from that event for my taxable account.

What do I do now? I have two account categories: my taxable accounts (40%) and my tax deferred accounts (60%). My desire is that when I quit w*rk, that I can live on my taxable accounts for a number of years before turning on SS and starting to withdraw from my deferred accounts. I tend to follow a glide-path. Since I'm single-digit-years away from FIRE, my taxable account is more conservatively invested than my deferred account. It's at currently around 55% equities. My deferred account is around 70% equities and I will drop over the coming years to around 50-55%. Some people go farther than that - lots of literature on glide-paths and "to" vs "through" glidepaths on the web.
 
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The purple line is the guy who stayed invested. The green line is the guy who jumped out at a 5% drop and back in after a 3% recovery. I'd rather be on the purple line. :)

Source: Worried About The Stock Market? Whatever You Do, Don’t Sell. | FiveThirtyEight

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