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Old 08-12-2015, 04:49 PM   #21
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The other problem with moving in and out of the market, even if you were a great market timer, is that taxes (even at capital gains rates) can be punishing. The better you are at timing, the more painful the taxes.

Definitely a good point - (fortunately) this year I have several offsetting losses that I've been waiting to take so I was able to minimize my tax burden.


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Old 08-12-2015, 04:54 PM   #22
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To be honest - with my recent request to step down from my director position and subsequent request to possibly take on a new challenge elsewhere in the company ; the reality of potentially not having the regular cash flow from work is becoming a bit concerning: particularly with my cash not being in the markets at the moment. I do intend to "get back in" prior to the next Div ex-date (mid Sept?) to at least be positioned as if I was depending on it for living expenses. There is not much fat I am interested in trimming on our monthly expenses which worrisome.


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Old 08-13-2015, 11:14 AM   #23
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Well -- I'm back in the market this AM. Looked like a fair place to jump back in albeit without the larger expected drop. Mostly SPY , with tilt
to QQQ and IWM along with VNQI (in IRA).

These positions are up $15k since purchased so off to a reasonably good start


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Old 08-13-2015, 04:23 PM   #24
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Well -- I'm back in the market this AM. Looked like a fair place to jump back in albeit without the larger expected drop. Mostly SPY , with tilt
to QQQ and IWM along with VNQI (in IRA).

These positions are up $15k since purchased so off to a reasonably good start
End of day reversal took back most of the gains today -- Ugh! I know, I know .... buy and hold
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Old 08-13-2015, 07:17 PM   #25
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One of the biggest barriers, IMHO, is that your kids (and maybe wife) may believe that you are a bottomless source of cash. Were I you I would start with the wife to develop a 'spending plan' that anticipates a change in your cash flow. Once the two of you are on the same page set the kid's expectations. Maybe they don't ski at Aspen or Davos but take the ski bus to Whiteface Mountain this year.
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Old 08-19-2015, 03:29 PM   #26
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Well I'm back to All Cash after riding the pop in the markets up 40k and back down yesterday/today I went back to cash -- it's just such a precarious market right now that we NEED a significant enough pullback to keep moving higher.


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Old 08-20-2015, 11:45 AM   #27
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Pullback continues - thinking way lower - talk of global Recession being past around...

If this scenario continues to play out - would you guys suggest sticking to cash and drawing down until there seems to be a bottom forming or move into TIPs / TLT / GLD?


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Old 08-20-2015, 11:49 AM   #28
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Pullback continues - thinking way lower - talk of global Recession being past around...

If this scenario continues to play out - would you guys suggest sticking to cash and drawing down until there seems to be a bottom forming or move into TIPs / TLT / GLD?
I'd suggest you reinvest in index funds, turn off your computer and TV, and forget about trying to time the market. But that's just me...
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Old 08-20-2015, 11:51 AM   #29
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I'd suggest you reinvest in index funds, turn off your computer and TV, and forget about trying to time the market. But that's just me...
Me too .. 'cept the computer part. That stays on..
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Old 08-20-2015, 03:16 PM   #30
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Well... Not so easy for me to buy and close my eyes unfortunately

Had I not sold yesterday would be down $100k today ... Would rather let this settle down before rebuilding a portfolio. Particularly since ex-div date is weeks away...


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Old 08-20-2015, 04:11 PM   #31
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I do intend to "get back in" prior to the next Div ex-date (mid Sept?) to at least be positioned as if I was depending on it for living expenses.

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Why would you get back in prior to ex div date? If you do, yes you get the div and also the tax iability. I wait till after ex div date and buy the div diluted shares and don't pay the taxes.
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Old 08-21-2015, 05:40 PM   #32
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I'd suggest you reinvest in index funds, turn off your computer and TV, and forget about trying to time the market. But that's just me...

Same opinion today?


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Old 08-21-2015, 05:54 PM   #33
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Yep.
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Old 08-22-2015, 08:50 AM   #34
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Yep.

Your a better man than me! I can't stomach a 20% drawdown for the sake of staying invested.


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Old 08-22-2015, 08:57 AM   #35
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Your a better man than me! I can't stomach a 20% drawdown for the sake of staying invested.
The S&P is down around 3% YTD. This is normal volatility.
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45 years old, 3 teenage kids, recent $$ windfall, can i retire?
Old 08-22-2015, 09:05 AM   #36
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45 years old, 3 teenage kids, recent $$ windfall, can i retire?

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The S&P is down around 3% YTD. This is normal volatility.

There is nothing normal about what is occurring right now. 3% I'm afraid is just a start....


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Old 08-22-2015, 09:17 AM   #37
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"This time is different"

I think I've heard that before...
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Old 08-22-2015, 09:18 AM   #38
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On the contrary, the S&P has dropped 5% or more 92 times since 1960. So, pretty normal.
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Old 08-22-2015, 09:46 AM   #39
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There is nothing normal about what is occurring right now. 3% I'm afraid is just a start....
This is why you should follow this advice. The world economy is growing right now, and will continue to do so with total disregard to the blather and fuss coming from pundits and talking heads.
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Old 08-22-2015, 03:14 PM   #40
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There is nothing normal about what is occurring right now. 3% I'm afraid is just a start...
Not at all, this is normal variation. One of the best explanations I've read is this:

Bear in mind that what drives stock prices is company profits after their expenses. So think about it - has anything happened that will dramatically affect, long term, the number of bottles of Coca Cola, John Deer tractors, Toyota cars, rolls of toilet paper or any other product that is sold? If there is I am unaware of it so those companies will continue to sell their products and earn profits.

Imagine a guy walking at a steady pace through a grassy field with a 10-month-old Labrador on a long leash. The puppy is running ahead, then finds something interesting and stops or even runs back to where he was, behind the guy holding the leash. But the average speed of the puppy is going to be exactly the same as the guy holding the leash.

The guy walking is company profits, slow and steady. The puppy is stock prices, affected by no one knows what, and that's going to be volatile. And that's what we're seeing now.

I can't give credit to the author because I forgot what book I read it in.
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