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08-12-2015, 03:49 PM
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#21
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 34
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by 45th Birthday
The other problem with moving in and out of the market, even if you were a great market timer, is that taxes (even at capital gains rates) can be punishing. The better you are at timing, the more painful the taxes.
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Definitely a good point - (fortunately) this year I have several offsetting losses that I've been waiting to take so I was able to minimize my tax burden.
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08-12-2015, 03:54 PM
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#22
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 34
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To be honest - with my recent request to step down from my director position and subsequent request to possibly take on a new challenge elsewhere in the company ; the reality of potentially not having the regular cash flow from work is becoming a bit concerning: particularly with my cash not being in the markets at the moment. I do intend to "get back in" prior to the next Div ex-date (mid Sept?) to at least be positioned as if I was depending on it for living expenses. There is not much fat I am interested in trimming on our monthly expenses which worrisome.
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08-13-2015, 10:14 AM
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#23
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 34
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Well -- I'm back in the market this AM. Looked like a fair place to jump back in albeit without the larger expected drop. Mostly SPY , with tilt
to QQQ and IWM along with VNQI (in IRA).
These positions are up $15k since purchased so off to a reasonably good start 
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08-13-2015, 03:23 PM
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#24
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bnk1
Well -- I'm back in the market this AM. Looked like a fair place to jump back in albeit without the larger expected drop. Mostly SPY , with tilt
to QQQ and IWM along with VNQI (in IRA).
These positions are up $15k since purchased so off to a reasonably good start |
End of day reversal took back most of the gains today -- Ugh! I know, I know .... buy and hold 
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08-13-2015, 06:17 PM
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#25
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Portland, Oregon
Posts: 7,113
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One of the biggest barriers, IMHO, is that your kids (and maybe wife) may believe that you are a bottomless source of cash. Were I you I would start with the wife to develop a 'spending plan' that anticipates a change in your cash flow. Once the two of you are on the same page set the kid's expectations. Maybe they don't ski at Aspen or Davos but take the ski bus to Whiteface Mountain this year.
__________________
Duck bjorn.
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08-19-2015, 02:29 PM
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#26
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 34
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Well I'm back to All Cash after riding the pop in the markets up 40k and back down yesterday/today I went back to cash -- it's just such a precarious market right now that we NEED a significant enough pullback to keep moving higher.
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08-20-2015, 10:45 AM
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#27
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 34
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Pullback continues - thinking way lower - talk of global Recession being past around...
If this scenario continues to play out - would you guys suggest sticking to cash and drawing down until there seems to be a bottom forming or move into TIPs / TLT / GLD?
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08-20-2015, 10:49 AM
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#28
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bnk1
Pullback continues - thinking way lower - talk of global Recession being past around...
If this scenario continues to play out - would you guys suggest sticking to cash and drawing down until there seems to be a bottom forming or move into TIPs / TLT / GLD?
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I'd suggest you reinvest in index funds, turn off your computer and TV, and forget about trying to time the market. But that's just me...
__________________
Numbers is hard
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08-20-2015, 10:51 AM
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#29
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,714
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Me too .. 'cept the computer part. That stays on..
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08-20-2015, 02:16 PM
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#30
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 34
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Well... Not so easy for me to buy and close my eyes unfortunately
Had I not sold yesterday would be down $100k today ... Would rather let this settle down before rebuilding a portfolio. Particularly since ex-div date is weeks away...
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08-20-2015, 03:11 PM
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#31
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: North Scottsdale
Posts: 1,545
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bnk1
I do intend to "get back in" prior to the next Div ex-date (mid Sept?) to at least be positioned as if I was depending on it for living expenses.
Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
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Why would you get back in prior to ex div date? If you do, yes you get the div and also the tax iability. I wait till after ex div date and buy the div diluted shares and don't pay the taxes.
__________________
FIRE'D in July 2009 at 51...Never look back!
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08-21-2015, 04:40 PM
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#32
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 34
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Same opinion today?
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08-21-2015, 04:54 PM
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#33
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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Yep.
__________________
Numbers is hard
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08-22-2015, 07:50 AM
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#34
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo
Yep.
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Your a better man than me! I can't stomach a 20% drawdown for the sake of staying invested.
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08-22-2015, 07:57 AM
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#35
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,714
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bnk1
Your a better man than me! I can't stomach a 20% drawdown for the sake of staying invested.
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The S&P is down around 3% YTD. This is normal volatility.
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45 years old, 3 teenage kids, recent $$ windfall, can i retire?
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08-22-2015, 08:05 AM
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#36
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 34
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45 years old, 3 teenage kids, recent $$ windfall, can i retire?
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB
The S&P is down around 3% YTD. This is normal volatility.
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There is nothing normal about what is occurring right now. 3% I'm afraid is just a start....
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08-22-2015, 08:17 AM
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#37
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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"This time is different"
I think I've heard that before...
__________________
Numbers is hard
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08-22-2015, 08:18 AM
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#38
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: Bonita (San Diego)
Posts: 1,795
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On the contrary, the S&P has dropped 5% or more 92 times since 1960. So, pretty normal.
__________________
"So we beat to our own drummer in the sun;
We ask for nobody's permission to run.
I just wanna live in a world like that;
Now I'm gonna live in a world like that!" - World Like That, O.A.R.
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08-22-2015, 08:46 AM
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#39
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,714
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bnk1
There is nothing normal about what is occurring right now. 3% I'm afraid is just a start....
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This is why you should follow this advice. The world economy is growing right now, and will continue to do so with total disregard to the blather and fuss coming from pundits and talking heads.
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08-22-2015, 02:14 PM
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#40
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Eastern WV Panhandle
Posts: 25,340
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bnk1
There is nothing normal about what is occurring right now. 3% I'm afraid is just a start...
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Not at all, this is normal variation. One of the best explanations I've read is this:
Bear in mind that what drives stock prices is company profits after their expenses. So think about it - has anything happened that will dramatically affect, long term, the number of bottles of Coca Cola, John Deer tractors, Toyota cars, rolls of toilet paper or any other product that is sold? If there is I am unaware of it so those companies will continue to sell their products and earn profits.
Imagine a guy walking at a steady pace through a grassy field with a 10-month-old Labrador on a long leash. The puppy is running ahead, then finds something interesting and stops or even runs back to where he was, behind the guy holding the leash. But the average speed of the puppy is going to be exactly the same as the guy holding the leash.
The guy walking is company profits, slow and steady. The puppy is stock prices, affected by no one knows what, and that's going to be volatile. And that's what we're seeing now.
I can't give credit to the author because I forgot what book I read it in.
__________________
When I was a kid I wanted to be older. This is not what I expected.
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