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5% off the high - are we done yet ?
Old 06-20-2013, 03:29 PM   #1
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5% off the high - are we done yet ?

I was expecting a pull back. Seeing it happen proves to me (once again) that I am not ready to ER. I could probably pull it off financially, but if I can't sleep at night its not worth it.

Unfortunately I'm cash poor at the moment, owning two houses outright (one of which will go on the market soon), so I can't buy the dip.

I am however thinking of selling all my bond ETFs (which are showing losses), and buying an S&P index. Market timing - how dare I ! Dumb move ?
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Old 06-20-2013, 03:38 PM   #2
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I am staying the course with my AA - I'll opportunistically rebalance if necessary, but that's it.
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Old 06-20-2013, 03:39 PM   #3
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I raised some cash the last two weeks selling some winners and lightening up on some bond etf's in case Uncle Ben dropped the hammer. I'm going to sit on the cash for a while to see where things shake out then will probably start nibbling at a few things on my "want to own" list. I think we could fall another 4-5% before things settle down.

You want to buy when everyone else is selling! Question is when.
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Old 06-20-2013, 03:51 PM   #4
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I don't think buying a little more of something on sale is market timing. Closing out a positon entirely on a well reasoned AA due to a drop is.

Historically I have always bought on dips. Didn't care really if it was the bottom or not. I was a devoted advocate of DCA. I would just put a little more in the envelope if the trend was down. Served me very well.

What is hard mentally now that I am close to pulling the trigger on ER (2014 hopefully) is sitting on the sidelines preserving enough cash for multiple years of living expenses. I want to jump on this and am bitting my tongue! I am finding preservation mode vs accumulation mode is a very strange change....
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Old 06-20-2013, 03:56 PM   #5
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I sure hope the pullback is not done. I Got funds to invest and need to see quality stocks at sale prices.
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Old 06-20-2013, 03:59 PM   #6
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I am staying the course with my AA - I'll opportunistically rebalance if necessary, but that's it.
+1

Meanwhile I see the DMT's are beginning to poke their heads out of their burrows and look for their shadow.
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Old 06-20-2013, 04:00 PM   #7
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Might be a slightly lazy question....when you buy some more shares of something like Vanguard Total Stock.....where does in lock the price in? If I did it now...would it lock in a todays price, or in 3 days or so when the switch from money market to that fund is finalized? I was thinking about moving some cash to stocks as well. Although I am thinking it will go up a bit tomorrow.....if it doesn't, then I really want to buy.
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Old 06-20-2013, 04:01 PM   #8
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I sure hope the pullback is not done. I Got funds to invest and need to see quality stocks at sale prices.
Yup, me too! We've been stockpiling cash for the past two years instead of adding to our bond allocation. Wouldn't mind at all if equities dropped a bit more.
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Old 06-20-2013, 04:05 PM   #9
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Might be a slightly lazy question....when you buy some more shares of something like Vanguard Total Stock.....where does in lock the price in? If I did it now...would it lock in a todays price, or in 3 days or so when the switch from money market to that fund is finalized? I was thinking about moving some cash to stocks as well. Although I am thinking it will go up a bit tomorrow.....if it doesn't, then I really want to buy.
The trade for a mutual fund will happen at the close for the day (if you get in during the allowable trading hours). The settlement date is what happens later, but by then the price is a done deal.

Edit: Just noticed your post was 4:00. So if you did it then, you'd get tomorrow's closing price.
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Old 06-20-2013, 04:09 PM   #10
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The trade for a mutual fund will happen at the close for the day (if you get in during the allowable trading hours). The settlement date is what happens later, but by then the price is a done deal.

Edit: Just noticed your post was 4:00. So if you did it then, you'd get tomorrow's closing price.
Thanks....any idea what those trader hour limits are? (eastern time). I thought about moving a little today....but I am no big hurry. If things don't go up tomorrow though I will likely buy another $10-20k of total stock.
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Old 06-20-2013, 04:20 PM   #11
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I am staying the course. I expect another 10-20% drop though.
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Old 06-20-2013, 04:21 PM   #12
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Thanks....any idea what those trader hour limits are? (eastern time). I thought about moving a little today....but I am no big hurry. If things don't go up tomorrow though I will likely buy another $10-20k of total stock.
It's probably 4pm Eastern. Just go on your fund's web site and "pretend" to buy something now. It should be pretty obvious when "click that matters" show up. But before then, you might learn something about when orders need to be in by. It will probably say that you can submit the order now, and you'll get tomorrow's close. Btw, you probably can cancel the order even if you execute "the click that matters".
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Old 06-20-2013, 04:52 PM   #13
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I am staying the course. I expect another 10-20% drop though.
Better sell your 1% allocation to Wellesley and lock in your gains!

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Old 06-20-2013, 04:54 PM   #14
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I sold half of my LQD at $118 on 6/6, and the other half yesterday at $115. Closed at $113.14 today. It's looking like a smart move right now, but I have no real good idea what to do with the cash.
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Old 06-20-2013, 05:02 PM   #15
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I'm going to stay the course. I need to stick with the plan. But, I must say that for 2012, we put our Roth accounts in CD's...a bit of market timing, but I'm OK with that.
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Old 06-20-2013, 05:03 PM   #16
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Don't know if we are done yet or not, but after running a portfolio x-ray I see no need to take action.
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Old 06-20-2013, 05:04 PM   #17
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I am staying the course. I expect another 10-20% drop though.
Good job. One nice feature about Wellesley is it rebalances automatically, so as equities fall, more are purchased at a lower price. This is an excellent conservative fund and over long periods should do a superior job of maintaining purchasing power compared with typical fixed income options.
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Old 06-20-2013, 05:07 PM   #18
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I am staying the course with my AA - I'll opportunistically rebalance if necessary, but that's it.
+2. I have a 30-40 yr horizon...
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Old 06-20-2013, 05:21 PM   #19
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+2. I have a 30-40 yr horizon...
+ 3 - I HOPE I have a 30-40 yr horizon ( That would put me on the shady side of 100 - nothing wrong with positive thinking!
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Old 06-20-2013, 05:25 PM   #20
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I just looked back, and my nestegg after today's drop is still greater than it was at the first of the year, and considerably higher than it was a year ago, despite being in the decumulation phase and living on it. This is probably true for most of us.

I wasn't upset then, and I am not upset now.

Also I am not yet anywhere close to the percentages that would trigger rebalancing. I did rebalance on May 20th due to the tremendous surge in the stock market at that time, which required rebalancing (according to the specific rebalancing criteria which I follow).
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