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5% off the high - are we done yet ?
06-20-2013, 03:29 PM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Tampa Bay Area
Posts: 1,866
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5% off the high - are we done yet ?
I was expecting a pull back. Seeing it happen proves to me (once again) that I am not ready to ER. I could probably pull it off financially, but if I can't sleep at night its not worth it.
Unfortunately I'm cash poor at the moment, owning two houses outright (one of which will go on the market soon), so I can't buy the dip.
I am however thinking of selling all my bond ETFs (which are showing losses), and buying an S&P index. Market timing - how dare I ! Dumb move ?
__________________
"For the time being no discipline brings joy, but seems grievous and painful; but afterwards it yields a peaceable fruit of righteousness to those who have been trained by it." ~
Hebrews 12:11
ER'd in June 2015 at age 52. Initial WR 3%. 50/40/10 (Equity/Bond/Short Term) AA.
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06-20-2013, 03:38 PM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,264
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I am staying the course with my AA - I'll opportunistically rebalance if necessary, but that's it.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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06-20-2013, 03:39 PM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: North Scottsdale
Posts: 1,545
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I raised some cash the last two weeks selling some winners and lightening up on some bond etf's in case Uncle Ben dropped the hammer. I'm going to sit on the cash for a while to see where things shake out then will probably start nibbling at a few things on my "want to own" list. I think we could fall another 4-5% before things settle down.
You want to buy when everyone else is selling! Question is when.
__________________
FIRE'D in July 2009 at 51...Never look back!
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06-20-2013, 03:51 PM
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#4
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 140
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I don't think buying a little more of something on sale is market timing. Closing out a positon entirely on a well reasoned AA due to a drop is.
Historically I have always bought on dips. Didn't care really if it was the bottom or not. I was a devoted advocate of DCA. I would just put a little more in the envelope if the trend was down. Served me very well.
What is hard mentally now that I am close to pulling the trigger on ER (2014 hopefully) is sitting on the sidelines preserving enough cash for multiple years of living expenses. I want to jump on this and am bitting my tongue! I am finding preservation mode vs accumulation mode is a very strange change....
__________________
I have the nature of a polymath and the memory of a Commodore 64
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06-20-2013, 03:56 PM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 2,223
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I sure hope the pullback is not done. I Got funds to invest and need to see quality stocks at sale prices.
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06-20-2013, 03:59 PM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,004
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski
I am staying the course with my AA - I'll opportunistically rebalance if necessary, but that's it.
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+1
Meanwhile I see the DMT's are beginning to poke their heads out of their burrows and look for their shadow.
__________________
Numbers is hard
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06-20-2013, 04:00 PM
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#7
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Harrogate, UK
Posts: 921
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Might be a slightly lazy question....when you buy some more shares of something like Vanguard Total Stock.....where does in lock the price in? If I did it now...would it lock in a todays price, or in 3 days or so when the switch from money market to that fund is finalized? I was thinking about moving some cash to stocks as well. Although I am thinking it will go up a bit tomorrow.....if it doesn't, then I really want to buy.
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06-20-2013, 04:01 PM
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#8
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 465
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lakewood90712
I sure hope the pullback is not done. I Got funds to invest and need to see quality stocks at sale prices.
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Yup, me too! We've been stockpiling cash for the past two years instead of adding to our bond allocation. Wouldn't mind at all if equities dropped a bit more.
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06-20-2013, 04:05 PM
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#9
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Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 10,656
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Quote:
Originally Posted by F4mandolin
Might be a slightly lazy question....when you buy some more shares of something like Vanguard Total Stock.....where does in lock the price in? If I did it now...would it lock in a todays price, or in 3 days or so when the switch from money market to that fund is finalized? I was thinking about moving some cash to stocks as well. Although I am thinking it will go up a bit tomorrow.....if it doesn't, then I really want to buy.
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The trade for a mutual fund will happen at the close for the day (if you get in during the allowable trading hours). The settlement date is what happens later, but by then the price is a done deal.
Edit: Just noticed your post was 4:00. So if you did it then, you'd get tomorrow's closing price.
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06-20-2013, 04:09 PM
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#10
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Harrogate, UK
Posts: 921
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sengsational
The trade for a mutual fund will happen at the close for the day (if you get in during the allowable trading hours). The settlement date is what happens later, but by then the price is a done deal.
Edit: Just noticed your post was 4:00. So if you did it then, you'd get tomorrow's closing price.
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Thanks....any idea what those trader hour limits are? (eastern time). I thought about moving a little today....but I am no big hurry. If things don't go up tomorrow though I will likely buy another $10-20k of total stock.
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06-20-2013, 04:20 PM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: midwestern city
Posts: 4,061
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I am staying the course. I expect another 10-20% drop though.
__________________
Very conservative with investments. Not ER'd yet, 48 years old. Please do not take anything I write or imply as legal, financial or medical advice directed to you. Contact your own financial advisor, healthcare provider, or attorney for financial, medical and legal advice.
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06-20-2013, 04:21 PM
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#12
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Moderator
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 10,656
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Quote:
Originally Posted by F4mandolin
Thanks....any idea what those trader hour limits are? (eastern time). I thought about moving a little today....but I am no big hurry. If things don't go up tomorrow though I will likely buy another $10-20k of total stock.
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It's probably 4pm Eastern. Just go on your fund's web site and "pretend" to buy something now. It should be pretty obvious when "click that matters" show up. But before then, you might learn something about when orders need to be in by. It will probably say that you can submit the order now, and you'll get tomorrow's close. Btw, you probably can cancel the order even if you execute "the click that matters".
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06-20-2013, 04:52 PM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,821
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Quote:
Originally Posted by obgyn65
I am staying the course. I expect another 10-20% drop though.
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Better sell your 1% allocation to Wellesley and lock in your gains!
-ERD50
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06-20-2013, 04:54 PM
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#14
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Administrator
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 22,973
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I sold half of my LQD at $118 on 6/6, and the other half yesterday at $115. Closed at $113.14 today. It's looking like a smart move right now, but I have no real good idea what to do with the cash.
__________________
Living an analog life in the Digital Age.
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06-20-2013, 05:02 PM
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#15
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Northern California
Posts: 549
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I'm going to stay the course. I need to stick with the plan. But, I must say that for 2012, we put our Roth accounts in CD's...a bit of market timing, but I'm OK with that.
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06-20-2013, 05:03 PM
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#16
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 12,894
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Don't know if we are done yet or not, but after running a portfolio x-ray I see no need to take action.
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06-20-2013, 05:04 PM
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#17
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,586
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Quote:
Originally Posted by obgyn65
I am staying the course. I expect another 10-20% drop though.
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Good job. One nice feature about Wellesley is it rebalances automatically, so as equities fall, more are purchased at a lower price. This is an excellent conservative fund and over long periods should do a superior job of maintaining purchasing power compared with typical fixed income options.
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06-20-2013, 05:07 PM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: NC
Posts: 21,204
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pb4uski
I am staying the course with my AA - I'll opportunistically rebalance if necessary, but that's it.
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+2. I have a 30-40 yr horizon...
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57
Target AA: 50% equity funds / 45% bonds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 1.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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06-20-2013, 05:21 PM
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#19
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 2,525
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack
+2. I have a 30-40 yr horizon...
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+ 3 - I HOPE I have a 30-40 yr horizon ( That would put me on the shady side of 100 - nothing wrong with positive thinking!
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06-20-2013, 05:25 PM
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#20
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,473
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I just looked back, and my nestegg after today's drop is still greater than it was at the first of the year, and considerably higher than it was a year ago, despite being in the decumulation phase and living on it. This is probably true for most of us.
I wasn't upset then, and I am not upset now.
Also I am not yet anywhere close to the percentages that would trigger rebalancing. I did rebalance on May 20th due to the tremendous surge in the stock market at that time, which required rebalancing (according to the specific rebalancing criteria which I follow).
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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