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A quick mock 15% ytd portfolio
Old 10-20-2014, 09:13 PM   #1
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A quick mock 15% ytd portfolio

I was playing around with some stocks / funds I was watching and decided to see how these funds would have faired with a hypothetical 65,000 investment at the beginning of the year. It looks like I would have been diversified enough for a 15% growth...too bad I'm only up 1/2 that this year in real life. Next year I will be a bit more risk tolerant. Of course this doesn't include fees and dividend yields.

Looks like you can get the job done with 17 different funds as I show in this quick little spreadsheet:
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File Type: gif fifteen-percent.gif (22.9 KB, 59 views)
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AA (Stock/Bond/Cash ): 99/0/1% MIX (Small/Mid/Large): 50/25/25% BLEND(US/Foreign): 100/0%, (Value/Growth/Blend): X/X/X% REIT (Real Estate Equity): 50% of Assets

FIRE in 2031 @ 50yrs old (+/- 2yrs) w/ a hypothetical $2.5mil portfolio, 3 appreciated homes worth $1.0mil and rental income to fund my gap years until RMD. Assets will go to an inherited IRA where I plan on watching the investments grow until I die or the trust gets executed.
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Old 10-21-2014, 05:54 AM   #2
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SEVENTEEN funds? For a portfolio of just 65 grand? That's way too complicated. The transaction costs to rebalance that portfolio will eat you alive.

Also, backtesting what would have worked well YTD is pointless. If you want to do that, here's a handy list to pick from: Stocks - Performance | YTD Percent Change (Stocks ranked by YTD percent change)
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Old 10-21-2014, 06:35 AM   #3
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Old 10-21-2014, 06:41 AM   #4
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What was the 3, 5 and 10 year performance?
Easy to pick the winners after the fact, picking before the starting gun is the trick. Next year it will be a different set of players, I'd expect.
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Old 10-21-2014, 07:52 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kgtest View Post
I was playing around with some stocks / funds I was watching and decided to see how these funds would have faired with a hypothetical 65,000 investment at the beginning of the year. It looks like I would have been diversified enough for a 15% growth...too bad I'm only up 1/2 that this year in real life. Next year I will be a bit more risk tolerant. Of course this doesn't include fees and dividend yields.

Looks like you can get the job done with 17 different funds as I show in this quick little spreadsheet:
I'd check all of the entries, as I noticed a few symbols don't agree with the etf category.

They say almost every spreadsheet has at least one error...
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Old 10-21-2014, 08:08 AM   #6
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Hindsight is 20/20. ....
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What was the 3, 5 and 10 year performance?
Easy to pick the winners after the fact, picking before the starting gun is the trick. Next year it will be a different set of players, I'd expect.
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Old 10-21-2014, 09:27 AM   #7
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I'd check all of the entries, as I noticed a few symbols don't agree with the etf category.

They say almost every spreadsheet has at least one error...

I can agree there. This was done in like 15minutes so I wouldn't bring this list to your financial planner or anything. Just a fun little "puzzle' if you will when I was messing around last night with some symbols I had lieing around.

This is by no menas representative of what I have going on, however I do have 13 funds acrosss way too many accounts that I will be rolling over here as soon as I close on this latest property. Hopefully vanguard will simplify my life a lot.

I really don't make too many trades, mainly rebalances. Although I did pick up some AAPL when it dropped a while back.
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AA (Stock/Bond/Cash ): 99/0/1% MIX (Small/Mid/Large): 50/25/25% BLEND(US/Foreign): 100/0%, (Value/Growth/Blend): X/X/X% REIT (Real Estate Equity): 50% of Assets

FIRE in 2031 @ 50yrs old (+/- 2yrs) w/ a hypothetical $2.5mil portfolio, 3 appreciated homes worth $1.0mil and rental income to fund my gap years until RMD. Assets will go to an inherited IRA where I plan on watching the investments grow until I die or the trust gets executed.
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My 15minute mock portfolio would have returned over 25%
Old 01-02-2015, 11:03 AM   #8
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My 15minute mock portfolio would have returned over 25%

Soo,
Not that I am this risk tolerant, but had I been this year this mock portfolio a few people disagreed on, actually would have performed quite well and returned over 25% with dividends reinvested. I am no Warren Buffet, but perhaps a close second lol

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File Type: png mock-25%portfolio.png (19.5 KB, 19 views)
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AA (Stock/Bond/Cash ): 99/0/1% MIX (Small/Mid/Large): 50/25/25% BLEND(US/Foreign): 100/0%, (Value/Growth/Blend): X/X/X% REIT (Real Estate Equity): 50% of Assets

FIRE in 2031 @ 50yrs old (+/- 2yrs) w/ a hypothetical $2.5mil portfolio, 3 appreciated homes worth $1.0mil and rental income to fund my gap years until RMD. Assets will go to an inherited IRA where I plan on watching the investments grow until I die or the trust gets executed.
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Old 01-02-2015, 11:25 AM   #9
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Your ROI is only slightly higher than mine with Wellington, S&P 500 index fund, Realty Income Corp and a small salting of international (looser) with a lot less work.
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Old 01-02-2015, 08:16 PM   #10
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If 1 year were the entire investing lifetime...
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Old 01-02-2015, 09:30 PM   #11
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Or you could just buy Berkshire 1 year 27% 3 years 25%, 5 years 17.8% 10 years and 15 years 9.8% all handily beating the S&P and all with less volatility than 75% all stocks and less than many mutual funds.

If we count Warren's $100,000/year salary as an investment expense that works out to be an ER of .0027%
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