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Old 09-26-2013, 02:16 PM   #21
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See, I always make the mistake of going back and checking on these things a few months after I sold.

GENC trading at $8.76 today...
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Old 09-26-2013, 02:56 PM   #22
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So what's the take away from this? You found a sure thing and made money? You sold too soon and could have made more? You made 6% for a month, but what to do with that money for the next month? I appreciate the update but not sure what to make of it.
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Old 09-26-2013, 03:19 PM   #23
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So what's the take away from this? You found a sure thing and made money? You sold too soon and could have made more? You made 6% for a month, but what to do with that money for the next month? I appreciate the update but not sure what to make of it.
No real point except I think it was one of those net-net rare opportunities that I did not take full advantage. Now that it is near actual cash value there is not as much attraction as when you could buy $20 bills for $16.
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Old 10-22-2013, 04:07 PM   #24
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Sorry I came so late to the "sure thing" party, but I do have an example - albeit a rather piddly one. 50 plus years ago (certainly before 1965) my home town still had a "down town" where most of the business and shopping took place. We had only relatively recently started the "shopping center" craze, so the downtown merchants held a "sidewalk sale" to try to keep their share of the shopping/business trade.

One of the local banks was offering an instant 2% return. They were selling silver dollars (yep, actual silver) for $0.98. The only catch was that you could only buy two. As a lad of perhaps 14 at the time, I was amazed that there was no line at the booth. My pea-sized investor's brain told me that making 2 cents in two days (this was a Saturday and banks would not open until Monday) on an investment of a dollar was, was... - well it was virtually infinite!

Slyly, I bought my 2 coins and then waited a respectable period (maybe 30 minutes) and went back for 2 more. I continued this "game" until I had 10 coins (my total "wad" at the time - easily the profit and left-overs of a couple of weeks of mowing lawns). All the way home I congratulated myself on my amazing investment skills. I pitched the coins in the bottom of my sock drawer and probably never noticed nor thought about them until I moved out for university several years later. By that time, I could have turned a truly handsome profit (silver was maybe 4 times face value then because of the halting of silver-content coinage). But, I lost track of the coins and didn't think of them for many more years.

Moral of the story - if there is one - Any plan for a "sure thing" has to be followed. I lost my bragging rights to "near infinite" return through simple neglect. Of course, I still have those coins in a lock box and current silver content alone suggests they are worth perhaps near $18 each. I'm too lazy to figure the return of 50+ years. I'm sure it's not that fantastic (not compared to "near infinite" anyway). For all I know those individual coins could now be worth quite a bit more to some collector, but I'm too satisfied (lazy) to try to sell them. Plus they are an enduring reminder about the fallacy of the "sure thing". How about that? A valuable lesson learned and (nominally, at least) making a profit. YMMV
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Old 10-22-2013, 04:36 PM   #25
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All the way home I congratulated myself on my amazing investment skills.
You STILL got about 6% IRR ($10 in 1964 to now at $180).
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Old 10-22-2013, 04:42 PM   #26
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You STILL got about 6% IRR ($10 in 1964 to now at $180).
Trying to figure out a good stock he could have bought in 1964 instead. How about Coca Cola? $10 would have gotten you about 4 shares? It has split a billion times since then, plus dividends.
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Old 10-22-2013, 05:10 PM   #27
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Trying to figure out a good stock he could have bought in 1964 instead. How about Coca Cola? $10 would have gotten you about 4 shares? It has split a billion times since then, plus dividends.
True enough. But for whatever reason, I don't look at things that I (or someone) didn't do, only things I (or someone) might wish they did more of. In other words "I shoulda put $50 on that horse instead of $2", rather than "Malabar in the 4th race paid 60 to 1", but I didn't get to the track until the 5th race. But neither of the two kinds of scenarios are really all that helpful unless you have a time machine. And then you'd go with the Malabar scenario, hehe.
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