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AAPL: Are you jumping on a pullback?
Old 01-17-2011, 08:07 PM   #1
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AAPL: Are you jumping on a pullback?

I'm ready to back up the truck if AAPL slides 10-15% tomorrow on the Jobs news. Anyone else with me?
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Old 01-17-2011, 08:09 PM   #2
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If Jobs is really sick and doesn't come back the slide could be a lot more than 10 or 15%. But it's all a guess at this point. I'll just sit in my index funds and watch the fun.
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Old 01-17-2011, 08:10 PM   #3
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I'll just sit in my index funds and watch the fun.
Yep. You kids run along now - and have a good time.
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Old 01-17-2011, 08:20 PM   #4
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Apple without Jobs wasn't worth much the first time they tried it. Definitely risky this time.
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Old 01-17-2011, 08:49 PM   #5
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I recently sold 1/2 of my holdings in AAPL while things were going good. I will be keeping a close eye on it in the AM.
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Old 01-17-2011, 09:11 PM   #6
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I'm ready to back up the truck if AAPL slides 10-15% tomorrow on the Jobs news. Anyone else with me?
10% off would put the price at $325 or so. Apple was that price just a month or two ago. Did you get a big bonus in December or Jan that would allow purchase of said truck and the means to fill it with shares at $325? If not, what exactly has changed for the positive in less than 2 months such that Apple would be such a steal now at $325 but wasn't worth buying at $325 two months ago?
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Old 01-17-2011, 09:24 PM   #7
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I sold my AAPL around 320....and was kicking myself a bit. Steve Jobs has put up a good fight. I'd like to see him make it....but...not sure at this point.
Don't know whether or not I will buy it if it drops. I'm thinking not...until I hear more about Jobs condition....
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Old 01-18-2011, 07:17 AM   #8
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10% off would put the price at $325 or so. Apple was that price just a month or two ago. Did you get a big bonus in December or Jan that would allow purchase of said truck and the means to fill it with shares at $325? If not, what exactly has changed for the positive in less than 2 months such that Apple would be such a steal now at $325 but wasn't worth buying at $325 two months ago?
+1 - puts it in proper perspective.

AAPL often does a wild dance around earnings, even w/o this news on Steve Jobs. While I think Jobs was the only person on the planet that could have pulled Apple from where it was in 1997 (when he worked his way back after being booted out in 1985 - quite a story in itself), I think at this point he is a bit of a double edged sword. He gets focused on some things and others get ignored. I think it might be possible at this point, that a good team might have enough of the 'vision thing' and also manage more evenly overall.

At any rate, I hope things go as well as possible for Mr Jobs, but that may be very limited due to the reality of his medical situation.

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Old 01-18-2011, 08:17 AM   #9
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Well, based on the way the market in general has reacted to bad news over the past year, I'm expecting AAPL to go up 10%.

Having snarked about that, I'm not expecting a 10-15% drop. I think Apple is either priced right or overpriced right now, so even if there was a significant drop it's not like you're going to clean up assuming Jobs returns to the reins. And since the market has to correct sometime relatively soon (IMHO), you might be sitting at that lowered price for a while. If you think AAPL is going to continue to soar over the next few years, grab some on a correction. But I wouldn't be expecting to get rich off of it.
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Old 01-18-2011, 08:20 AM   #10
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Frankly I thought when Jobs returned from his liver transplant he shouldn't have continued as CEO. He could still be the "mastermind" behind a lot of the new technology and ideas, as that is what he truly excels at, and presumably with less travel and a less hectic schedule. Sort of like a "chief visionary officer," but one that doesn't have to do much reporting to shareholders or keep a backbreaking travel schedule.

His value is more in his creative ideas than in his executive prowess, IMO.
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Old 01-18-2011, 08:45 AM   #11
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His value is more in his creative ideas than in his executive prowess, IMO.
Actually, a case can be made for exactly the opposite. It's not what most people would think, but there is something to it, IMO.

Sure, he does have vision. This is apparent when his vision works. But he's had some terrible missteps with his vision. With Pixar, he kept trying to sell the hardware (computers that did animation and special effects). It was his team that kept pushing the 'shorts' (originally just used to demo the hardware) and turning Pixar into an animation studio. He fought it for a long, long time.

Once Pixar had some hits, it was his executive prowess that got Disney back to the table to renegotiate the contract ( Pixar agreed to more films, but at a much higher rate for the remaining contracted films).

With the iPhone, he had vision, but it was executive prowess that got him to wrangle big concessions from AT&T - up until the iPhone, it was the carriers that called the shots with phone design and how the software worked. Jobs turned that around.

There are more examples (NeXT), I'll suggest "The Second Coming of Steve Jobs" for some more insight.

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Old 01-18-2011, 11:33 AM   #12
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Actually, a case can be made for exactly the opposite. It's not what most people would think, but there is something to it, IMO.

Sure, he does have vision. This is apparent when his vision works. But he's had some terrible missteps with his vision. With Pixar, he kept trying to sell the hardware (computers that did animation and special effects). It was his team that kept pushing the 'shorts' (originally just used to demo the hardware) and turning Pixar into an animation studio. He fought it for a long, long time.

Once Pixar had some hits, it was his executive prowess that got Disney back to the table to renegotiate the contract ( Pixar agreed to more films, but at a much higher rate for the remaining contracted films).

With the iPhone, he had vision, but it was executive prowess that got him to wrangle big concessions from AT&T - up until the iPhone, it was the carriers that called the shots with phone design and how the software worked. Jobs turned that around.

There are more examples (NeXT), I'll suggest "The Second Coming of Steve Jobs" for some more insight.

-ERD50
ERD50 has this pretty much nailed. That's based on my experience at PIXAR, NeXT, and Apple, anyway. By the time the NeXT experience was winding down, Mr. Jobs had developed some very good executive skills, particularly in getting great results out of people, and in cutting deals.

By the time of the NeXT/Apple merger, well, I don't think the old Apple executive team knew what hit them. They thought they were buying an operating system team, and didn't realize it came with a free executive wood chipper. VRAAAAP!

The current company is largely shaped by Mr. Jobs, and it's management embodies his own approach to the business. The management team at Apple is effectively running Jobs 2.0, as their approach to product development and management is pretty much just what Mr. Jobs would be doing. This has been good for him, personally, over the last few years, as he doesn't need to be involved in all the fiddly day to day decision making within Apple, yet Apple still manages to keep producing great products.
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Old 01-18-2011, 01:05 PM   #13
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Over a couple of decades, I've always bought Apple stock whenever its price tanked. Every time people were writing off the company, I bought as much as I could, then sold it when it got back high enough to make me nervous.

Made a lot of money doing that, time after time.
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Old 01-18-2011, 03:05 PM   #14
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Over a couple of decades, I've always bought Apple stock whenever its price tanked. Every time people were writing off the company, I bought as much as I could, then sold it when it got back high enough to make me nervous.
Made a lot of money doing that, time after time.
Reminds me of the Berkshire Hathaway conundrum.

Wonder which one of us is going to "lose" that game first...
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Old 01-18-2011, 03:19 PM   #15
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Well, that opportunity was fun while it lasted.

Apple announced blowout earnings and after-hours, spiked over $353/share before settling down in the $345-346 range.
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Old 01-18-2011, 04:34 PM   #16
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I don't think Job's outlook is good. To survive pancreatic cancer this long is miraculous.

People need to value Apple without him.
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Old 01-19-2011, 04:09 PM   #17
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Apple announced blowout earnings and after-hours, spiked over $353/share before settling down in the $345-346 range.
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People need to value Apple without him.
I think they just did.

Tempting to short it, though, solely from the "sell on the good news" philosophy.
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Old 01-19-2011, 05:55 PM   #18
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If you short Apple you have some serious cojones...they have a cult of followers that will buy anything the company produces, even if they don't need it. Add to that the 60 billion cash on hand and it looks too risky to short to me.

Now if you were to say short Netflix, I could get behind that. Or maybe even Las Vegas Sands.
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Old 01-20-2011, 11:35 PM   #19
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If you short Apple you have some serious cojones...they have a cult of followers that will buy anything the company produces, even if they don't need it. Add to that the 60 billion cash on hand and it looks too risky to short to me.
Now if you were to say short Netflix, I could get behind that. Or maybe even Las Vegas Sands.
I'm just referring to the traders and emotional investors who have made this technique work so well before. The problem with the technique is margin calls waiting for the rest of the market to recognize one's prescience.
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