Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 01-30-2016, 07:18 AM   #21
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 3,695
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fedup View Post
I was not looking at those countries. I've been to Paris, but not the whole of France. So far I'm only looking at hotels at several countries and they are not cheap.


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
I think the tangental point of this thread was that IF the USD gained a dramatic gain in value and became the most powerful currency, that things in the rest of the world would be cheap to buy with USD
__________________

__________________
Living well is the best revenge!
Retired @ 52 in 2005
marko is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 01-30-2016, 07:45 AM   #22
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Gone4Good's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
Quote:
Originally Posted by marko View Post
I think the tangental point of this thread was that IF the USD gained a dramatic gain in value and became the most powerful currency, that things in the rest of the world would be cheap to buy with USD
That's absolutely been the case. We've been living overseas in different parts of the world for the past two years and everything is basically on sale compared to when we started.

Here in Mexico my USD purchasing power has increased by about 7% in just the month since we arrived.

From a portfolio management perspective, USDs buy more foreign earnings now tool.
__________________

__________________
Retired early, traveling perpetually.
Gone4Good is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-30-2016, 07:53 AM   #23
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,412
The US$ is already the dominant currency and has gained significantly in value over the past 4 years. As a net importer and also the global reserve currency, it's natural trend is to decline relative to the trade-weighted index. If so, it is probably closer to a peak in value now.
.
Attached Images
File Type: jpg US$ graph.jpg (141.0 KB, 13 views)
__________________
MichaelB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-30-2016, 08:45 AM   #24
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Senator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Eagan, MN
Posts: 3,042
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
The US$ is already the dominant currency and has gained significantly in value over the past 4 years. As a net importer and also the global reserve currency, it's natural trend is to decline relative to the trade-weighted index. If so, it is probably closer to a peak in value now.
I agree, but if the Fed has another 3-4 rate increases this year, another 1-2%, we will likely be higher than the highest peak.

I think we are done with rate increases until inflation starts. The Fed had to raise rates to save face, and allow banks to have higher profits.
__________________
FIRE no later than 7/5/2016 at 56 (done), securing '16 401K match (done), getting '15 401K match (done), LTI Bonus (done), Perf bonus (done), maxing out 401K (done), picking up 1,000 hours to get another year of pension (done), July 1st benefits (vacation day, healthcare) (done), July 4th holiday. 0 days left. (done) OFFICIALLY RETIRED 7/5/2016!!
Senator is offline   Reply With Quote
Another Sign of Global Deflation
Old 01-30-2016, 09:06 AM   #25
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Mulligan's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 7,369
Another Sign of Global Deflation

Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
The US$ is already the dominant currency and has gained significantly in value over the past 4 years. As a net importer and also the global reserve currency, it's natural trend is to decline relative to the trade-weighted index. If so, it is probably closer to a peak in value now.
.

My how things change. That second peak in early 2000's was when US was running budget surpluses. They had projections showing the US being debt free about now. Also, they were worried about how all US debt being paid off would affect world economies and dollar value. Well, I guess we don't have to worry about that scenario for a while.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
__________________
Mulligan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-30-2016, 09:18 AM   #26
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
kcowan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 5,705
Send a message via Skype™ to kcowan
Much of the lack of inflation is helped by the oil supply from Saudi Arabia, Iran and Venezuela. Once OPEC has bankrupted all the fracking companies, expect a return to higher prices. But we are probably talking about 3+ years.
__________________
For the fun of it...Keith
kcowan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-30-2016, 11:39 AM   #27
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,412
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mulligan View Post
My how things change. That second peak in early 2000's was when US was running budget surpluses. They had projections showing the US being debt free about now. Also, they were worried about how all US debt being paid off would affect world economies and dollar value. Well, I guess we don't have to worry about that scenario for a while.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
No expertise here, but I think currency has less to do with budget surplus and more to do with the relative economic performance among countries, at least when dealing with strong currency.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator View Post
I agree, but if the Fed has another 3-4 rate increases this year, another 1-2%, we will likely be higher than the highest peak.

I think we are done with rate increases until inflation starts. The Fed had to raise rates to save face, and allow banks to have higher profits.
I gave my policy recommendation to Janet but she asked me not to share it.

The Fed is usually in a no-win situation, and this is no different. They must act with certainty of that which has not yet happened, yet will be judged based on the history of what did happen.

- It is never the right time to raise rates. That moment is either not yet come or already past.
- There are always important constituencies that benefit while others suffer no matter what the Fed does.
- While the Fed has two mandates, they are liable for and judged by a third, which is the misallocation of capital that takes placce when money is too easy for too long.
- Many of the financial issues we face today are due to past policies that attempt to minimize the downside of economic cycles.
- Most of us have benefited enormously from the asset appreciation over the past decade, and decades.

If other policy makers around the world developed and implemented their policies with the same care, skill, and forethought, I think most of the world would be in better shape.
__________________
MichaelB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-30-2016, 11:45 AM   #28
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Mulligan's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 7,369
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
No expertise here, but I think currency has less to do with budget surplus and more to do with the relative economic performance among countries, at least when dealing with strong currency.


I gave my policy recommendation to Janet but she asked me not to share it.

The Fed is usually in a no-win situation, and this is no different. They must act with certainty of that which has not yet happened, yet will be judged based on the history of what did happen.

- It is never the right time to raise rates. That moment is either not yet come or already past.
- There are always important constituencies that benefit while others suffer no matter what the Fed does.
- While the Fed has two mandates, they are liable for and judged by a third, which is the misallocation of capital that takes placce when money is too easy for too long.
- Many of the financial issues we face today are due to past policies that attempt to minimize the downside of economic cycles.
- Most of us have benefited enormously from the asset appreciation over the past decade, and decades.

If other policy makers around the world developed and implemented their policies with the same care, skill, and forethought, I think most of the world would be in better shape.

That is my general understanding as well. I just, like always, go off on a separate and unrelated tangent at the same time.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
__________________
Mulligan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-30-2016, 11:51 AM   #29
Recycles dryer sheets
winger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 250
I love predictions.
__________________
winger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2016, 08:33 AM   #30
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,356
Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator View Post
I agree, but if the Fed has another 3-4 rate increases this year, another 1-2%, we will likely be higher than the highest peak.

I think we are done with rate increases until inflation starts. The Fed had to raise rates to save face, and allow banks to have higher profits.
Yeah, I can't see the Fed raising rates further with the current global situation and inflation and growth as low as they are. Of course, I thought they should have waited longer before their first rate increase, so what do I know.
__________________
Hamlet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2016, 09:03 AM   #31
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 340
With almost $19 trillions in Debt, chronic big budget deficit, Q4 GDP sharp slow down I do not understand how the Feds are going to continue rates raising.
__________________
VFK57 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2016, 08:52 PM   #32
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: northern Michigan
Posts: 732
Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator View Post

I think we are done with rate increases until inflation starts. The Fed had to raise rates to save face, and allow banks to have higher profits.
Agreed. I don't think we will see another rate increase anytime soon either. The recent minor rate increase was not justified (based on the state of the economy), but they had to do it to save face, as you say. The Fed (and especially Janet Yellen) is in a real quandary here, because Bernanke put them in a real tough situation (with QE 1,2,3, ZIRP, etc), from which there is no easy way out now.
__________________
RAE is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2016, 10:02 PM   #33
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 18,260
Quote:
Originally Posted by winger View Post
I love predictions.
I predict that in the future, you won't.

-ERD50
__________________
ERD50 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2016, 11:36 PM   #34
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Thousand Oaks
Posts: 839
Quote:
Originally Posted by ESRwannabe View Post
I think it will be stagnation more so than deflation, at least in the US.



I think the US will go through what Japan had endured the last few decades.

People have been saying this for ten years though.


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
__________________
mh is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2016, 11:40 PM   #35
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Ed_The_Gypsy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,292
Quote:
Originally Posted by marko View Post
Pretty sure all you have to do is leave the country for a few days and return. Italy is just a short drive away and the food is good!
Schengen Zone. The drive is a little longer than that.
__________________
my bumpersticker:
"I am not in a hurry.
I am retired.
And I don't care how big your truck is."
Ed_The_Gypsy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-31-2016, 11:46 PM   #36
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Ed_The_Gypsy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,292
I am not clear where deflation may be found. In my little town, except for gasoline, the cost of most things is increasing.
__________________
my bumpersticker:
"I am not in a hurry.
I am retired.
And I don't care how big your truck is."
Ed_The_Gypsy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2016, 06:15 AM   #37
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Senator's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Eagan, MN
Posts: 3,042
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed_The_Gypsy View Post
I am not clear where deflation may be found. In my little town, except for gasoline, the cost of most things is increasing.
Sometimes, deflation is hard to see. Cars have the same list price, bu have higher discounts. Gas prices are way down. Things purchased on-line eliminate many stages of mark-ups and are cheaper. Things can be purchased directly from Hong Kong, for pennies on the dollar, and are much cheaper.

Companies in the S&P top-line revenue growth is always struggling. Consumer spending, and wages, are stagnant. Do not look to tech workers wages, look to the average worker, without an education.

Deflation is here. When people cannot spend more, or refuse to do so, it happens.
__________________
FIRE no later than 7/5/2016 at 56 (done), securing '16 401K match (done), getting '15 401K match (done), LTI Bonus (done), Perf bonus (done), maxing out 401K (done), picking up 1,000 hours to get another year of pension (done), July 1st benefits (vacation day, healthcare) (done), July 4th holiday. 0 days left. (done) OFFICIALLY RETIRED 7/5/2016!!
Senator is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2016, 08:49 AM   #38
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Gone4Good's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed_The_Gypsy View Post
Schengen Zone. The drive is a little longer than that.
And then you still can't come back for 90 days.
__________________
Retired early, traveling perpetually.
Gone4Good is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2016, 08:56 AM   #39
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by ESRwannabe View Post
I think it will be stagnation more so than deflation, at least in the US.

I think the US will go through what Japan had endured the last few decades.
While stagflation is a horrible thing for economy, not a bad thing for retirees who already have their $$$$
__________________
highlow65 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-01-2016, 09:53 AM   #40
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Chuckanut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 6,318
Quote:
Originally Posted by highlow65 View Post
While stagflation is a horrible thing for economy, not a bad thing for retirees who already have their $$$$
In the short run I might agree. In the long run we need profitable businesses and working people making a descent wage to buy our investments when we sell them, help investments throw off increasing dividends, as well as contribute to our pensions, SS, Medicare, etc.
__________________

__________________
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
Chuckanut is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
The Specter of Global Deflation IndependentlyPoor FIRE and Money 13 07-11-2010 01:50 PM
CAVS sign another piece to the puzzle...Jamison! thefed Other topics 5 02-19-2010 08:45 AM
Global Deflation Pandemic Begins to Brew Helena FIRE and Money 37 08-02-2009 10:53 PM
Campaign will raise awareness on Global Warming & Global Health Wags Other topics 13 04-03-2008 07:33 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:51 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.