Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Any chartists, you bailing while you can.
Old 10-19-2018, 10:08 AM   #1
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 93
Any chartists, you bailing while you can.

Gonna get me flamed, but I see a reversion to the mean within months that will make 2008 look like a good year.

I don't claim amazing math skills, nor clairvoyance, but this simple look should cause caution, no, no panic.

Go to market watch.com and select advanced chart.
Plot 5 years of Dow, then plot 10 years and then plot All Data. First two are not scary, third is terrifying, at least to me. Does anyone believe the market will continue the growth that the 2008-2018 timeframe shows?

Do your own assessment, but note that if you use a ruler and do: dbl tops/dbl bottoms, things are deceiving, if you look at the actual curve in Excel, do you think a large reversion is coming. It is unsustainable in my amatuer opinion.

Would love to hear opinions, especially countering views and reasoning.

Hoping this is considered as a "time to think it anew".
__________________

misterantsypants is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 10-19-2018, 11:23 AM   #2
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: Fargo
Posts: 237
If you have the correct mix of stocks/bonds for your age, risk tolerance and progress on your goals, then just stop looking and researching.

You may be right. You may be wrong. You have to guess correct now to get out and you have to guess correct later when you "feel" the bottom.

A similar thread was likely posted in 2015, 2016, 2017 and now 2018. At some point you will be right to some degree or another. Fear and feelings are no way to invest.
__________________

bloom2708 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2018, 11:33 AM   #3
Full time employment: Posting here.
flintnational's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Atlanta Suburb
Posts: 952
So, when do you get out of the market?
When do you get back in the market?
You have to be correct twice for timing to be of any value.

Or, you can pick an asset allocation and stick with it through the market cycle. No decisions required.
__________________
"Oh, twice as much ain't twice as good
And can't sustain like one half could
It's wanting more that's gonna send me to my knees" - John Mayer
flintnational is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2018, 11:48 AM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
sengsational's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,567
Now is the time to adjust your exposure so you can stomach a real bear. If there's a chance you'll bail before the recovery or won't live long enough for the recovery, correct your allocation "permanently".
Attached Images
File Type: jpg IMG_20181019_123208059.jpg (490.3 KB, 81 views)
sengsational is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2018, 12:09 PM   #5
Recycles dryer sheets
kite_rider's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 77
I'm no 'chartist', but there seem to be plenty of red flags out there for people with lots of exposure to US equities and real estate. This article has plenty of charts to keep you up at night.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jesseco...inable-bubble/

I'll break with the other advice you've been given so far and suggest that you take some gains (if you have them) and put it into something safe.

For the record; I felt the same way last year and you could point out all of the gains you would have had if you hadn't sold. But the way I see it is that 2017 was a good year anyway. If you sell more now, 2018 will also go down in the books as another good year.
kite_rider is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2018, 12:15 PM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 1,720
Quote:
Originally Posted by misterantsypants View Post
Gonna get me flamed, but I see a reversion to the mean within months that will make 2008 look like a good year.
Sounds bad.

I see dead people.
__________________
Old enough to know better.
joeea is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2018, 01:02 PM   #7
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 93
Quote:
Originally Posted by flintnational View Post
So, when do you get out of the market?
When do you get back in the market?
You have to be correct twice for timing to be of any value.

Or, you can pick an asset allocation and stick with it through the market cycle. No decisions required.
I did not have enough money to matter at the time, but did notice the charts.

Post was offered as opinion to consider, I am not heavily in the market, mostly "other" assets. Do own lots of ETF index funds and that is my dilemma, not pulling the plug yet.
But my crystal ball says early 1919 will be unlike now.
misterantsypants is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2018, 01:04 PM   #8
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 93
Quote:
Originally Posted by sengsational View Post
Now is the time to adjust your exposure so you can stomach a real bear. If there's a chance you'll bail before the recovery or won't live long enough for the recovery, correct your allocation "permanently".
Dang, you continue to shred dude, vagabond and awareness, good combo!
misterantsypants is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2018, 01:10 PM   #9
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 93
Quote:
Originally Posted by kite_rider View Post
I'm no 'chartist', but there seem to be plenty of red flags out there for people with lots of exposure to US equities and real estate. This article has plenty of charts to keep you up at night.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jesseco...inable-bubble/

I'll break with the other advice you've been given so far and suggest that you take some gains (if you have them) and put it into something safe.

For the record; I felt the same way last year and you could point out all of the gains you would have had if you hadn't sold. But the way I see it is that 2017 was a good year anyway. If you sell more now, 2018 will also go down in the books as another good year.
Exactly, riding the wave is great, but when we have to bail, leash tight as hell, and hit the coral reef and the board is shattered and we swim to the nearest distant shore, the joy of the ride is over big-time.
misterantsypants is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2018, 01:30 PM   #10
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Location: Fargo
Posts: 237
Quote:
Originally Posted by misterantsypants View Post
I am not heavily in the market, mostly "other" assets. Do own lots of ETF index funds and that is my dilemma, not pulling the plug yet.
You are not heavily in the market but own lots of ETF index funds?

Explain how ETF index funds are not "in the market"?

Maybe it is a Friday.
bloom2708 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2018, 01:37 PM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 4,264
This thread needs input from Mark Hulbert.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...nge-2018-10-18
target2019 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2018, 01:52 PM   #12
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: Cypress
Posts: 78
I absolutely agree with you that sometime in the future there will be a huge crash. Probably absolutely devastating to the economy, peoples lives, quality of life. Problem is, I dont know when. I dont really know how to read the tea leaves. So, I can only plan for the worst and hope for the best. Best of luck to everyone.
griffithee is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2018, 01:54 PM   #13
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 93
Quote:
Originally Posted by bloom2708 View Post
You are not heavily in the market but own lots of ETF index funds?

Explain how ETF index funds are not "in the market"?

Maybe it is a Friday.
UHH, maybe I have $500 in 20 funds, so is that not pretty light in the market and yes, it is Friday.
misterantsypants is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2018, 02:00 PM   #14
Full time employment: Posting here.
dtbach's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Madison
Posts: 907
Quote:
Originally Posted by misterantsypants View Post
UHH, maybe I have $500 in 20 funds, so is that not pretty light in the market and yes, it is Friday.

Geez, I have that much in my wallet right now. Why should we listen to you? You don't have anything in the market and for all we know, not much in anything else either. No info here for me.
__________________
Wild Bill shoulda taken more out of his IRA when he could have. . . .
dtbach is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2018, 02:06 PM   #15
Moderator
braumeister's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Northern Kentucky
Posts: 11,410
Quote:
Originally Posted by misterantsypants View Post
I Do own lots of ETF index funds
I know what an ETF is, what an index is, what a fund is.

What exactly is an ETF index fund?
__________________
I thought growing old would take longer.
braumeister is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2018, 02:12 PM   #16
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 93
Quote:
Originally Posted by griffithee View Post
I absolutely agree with you that sometime in the future there will be a huge crash. Probably absolutely devastating to the economy, peoples lives, quality of life. Problem is, I dont know when. I dont really know how to read the tea leaves. So, I can only plan for the worst and hope for the best. Best of luck to everyone.
I don't know either, my post is to suggest awareness of exponential growth in the market is not possible.
misterantsypants is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2018, 02:22 PM   #17
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 93
Quote:
Originally Posted by braumeister View Post
I know what an ETF is, what an index is, what a fund is.

What exactly is an ETF index fund?
Look at VTI, it is a Vanguard ETF Index Fund, tracking:
The CRSP US Total Market Index represents approximately 100% of investable

So this ETF is by the way is much better investment than a similar Fund because is has low ER, and sells more credibly.
Hope I got that right.
misterantsypants is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2018, 02:25 PM   #18
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 93
Quote:
Originally Posted by dtbach View Post
Geez, I have that much in my wallet right now. Why should we listen to you? You don't have anything in the market and for all we know, not much in anything else either. No info here for me.
Evidently offended you, but I said "maybe" and you extrapolated, "if no info", so enjoying your goodbye, enjoy your self?
misterantsypants is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2018, 02:30 PM   #19
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 27,398
Quote:
Originally Posted by misterantsypants View Post
Hope I got that right.
An investment banker discussing stock market charts would know for sure.
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-19-2018, 02:33 PM   #20
Moderator
braumeister's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Northern Kentucky
Posts: 11,410
Quote:
Originally Posted by misterantsypants View Post
Look at VTI, it is a Vanguard ETF Index Fund,
...
Hope I got that right.
Well, you got in the neighborhood of right.

Sort of like when you get cash from an ATM machine.
__________________

__________________
I thought growing old would take longer.
braumeister is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Anyone bailing out of bond funds? roger r FIRE and Money 99 07-14-2013 02:22 PM
The time has arrived, Get out while you can! RockOn FIRE and Money 66 03-13-2008 03:21 PM
Bailing out homeowners? farmerEd Other topics 15 08-25-2007 02:25 PM
One more bailing out ...... Under FIRE Hi, I am... 10 04-16-2006 02:48 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:12 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.