Any POT heads on here?

Trapshooter · 04-23-2008, 08:02 PM

Down 5% today. Earnings announcement tomorrow morning. Any predictions?

I think there is a good chance we have a huge "sell the news" even if the earnings are outstanding. This because it has run up so fast. I didn't sell any though because I think this thing goes much higher in the long run. I messed up a few weeks ago and lightened up before MOS earnings. Thought I could buy back cheaper. MOS crushed the earnings and I ended up having to buy back higher. This time I'll bite the bullet and hold. If POT and MOS crashes (I hope it happens) tomorrow I'll load up on LEAPS.

Good luck

kumquat · 04-23-2008, 09:41 PM

I have way too much POT (and I can't smoke any of it), small upswing in price (< $10). My guess on earnings is $1.7 -$1.9. The real story will be:

- raise in annual earnings predictions to ~$10
- double the ~~paltry~~ dividend
- possible split

Second and 3rd 1/4 will have the serious earnings increases.

Tomorrow will tell

Enjoy

Trapshooter · 04-24-2008, 04:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kumquat

I have way too much POT (and I can't smoke any of it), small upswing in price (< $10). My guess on earnings is $1.7 -$1.9. The real story will be:

- raise in annual earnings predictions to ~$10
- double the ~~paltry~~ dividend
- possible split

Second and 3rd 1/4 will have the serious earnings increases.

Tomorrow will tell

Enjoy

You nailed it! EPS $1.74. Guidance full year $9.50-10.50

Will be interesting to see how market reacts. The avg estimate was $1.52. I have too much POT also. It's my largest holding, way overweight. Good luck

Tiger · 04-24-2008, 01:33 PM

kumquat · 04-24-2008, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trapshooter

You nailed it! EPS $1.74. Guidance full year $9.50-10.50

Will be interesting to see how market reacts. The avg estimate was $1.52. I have too much POT also. It's my largest holding, way overweight. Good luck

Other than my prediction of a small gain in price, OUCH.

Trapshooter · 04-24-2008, 06:53 PM

I thought we might get hit pretty hard today. So many momentum players who don't realize what they have. Down 5% today and 5% yesterday. I'm actually glad because I got some Jan 2010 190 calls that I had been wanting.

Hope we don't go too much lower before sanity is restored.

kumquat · 04-25-2008, 01:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Trapshooter

I thought we might get hit pretty hard today.

You nailed it.

wildcat · 05-10-2008, 05:44 PM

I have been trying to read up on fertilizer shortages and supply/demand, etc. This is a pretty cool site for historical data:

ERS/USDA Data - U.S. Fertilizer Use and Price

04-23-2008, 08:02 PM	#1
Trapshooter Dryer sheet aficionado Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 29	Any POT heads on here? Down 5% today. Earnings announcement tomorrow morning. Any predictions? I think there is a good chance we have a huge "sell the news" even if the earnings are outstanding. This because it has run up so fast. I didn't sell any though because I think this thing goes much higher in the long run. I messed up a few weeks ago and lightened up before MOS earnings. Thought I could buy back cheaper. MOS crushed the earnings and I ended up having to buy back higher. This time I'll bite the bullet and hold. If POT and MOS crashes (I hope it happens) tomorrow I'll load up on LEAPS. Good luck

04-23-2008, 09:41 PM	#2
kumquat Full time employment: Posting here. Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 693	I have way too much POT (and I can't smoke any of it), small upswing in price (< $10). My guess on earnings is $1.7 -$1.9. The real story will be: - raise in annual earnings predictions to ~$10 - double the ~~paltry~~ dividend - possible split Second and 3rd 1/4 will have the serious earnings increases. Tomorrow will tell Enjoy __________________ Life's a bitch and then you come back - Hindu proverb

05-10-2008, 05:44 PM	#8
wildcat Thinks s/he gets paid by the post Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 1,872	I have been trying to read up on fertilizer shortages and supply/demand, etc. This is a pretty cool site for historical data: ERS/USDA Data - U.S. Fertilizer Use and Price __________________ "These walls are kind of funny. First you hate 'em, then you get used to 'em. Enough time passes, gets so you depend on them"

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04-24-2008, 01:33 PM	#4
Tiger Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 221

04-24-2008, 06:53 PM	#6
Trapshooter Dryer sheet aficionado Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 29	I thought we might get hit pretty hard today. So many momentum players who don't realize what they have. Down 5% today and 5% yesterday. I'm actually glad because I got some Jan 2010 190 calls that I had been wanting. Hope we don't go too much lower before sanity is restored.

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