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Old 07-16-2008, 10:15 AM   #21
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Thanks for at least trying to make me feel better
You are welcome. That's a fellow forum member's for.

I just read some of your past posts. Yes, indeed, you are enamored with financial stocks, being employed in that industry. Just like me and my semis and telecoms stocks in the bull market of 1995-2000. But I repented, and read, and read. Particularly Malkiel, which I read again and again.

The case I am seeing with financial stocks is this. The price won't go to zero, same as most of my past semiconductor stocks. These are real companies, with brick-n-mortar buildings, factories, not like some ridiculuous dotcoms. BUT, if their reputations have been damaged, and they have lost the trust of the investors, they may have a tough time. Sure, in the short term, there will be bargain hunters like yourself who buy on dip, then get out on some bounces. Since I do no short-term trades, I do not even look at financials right now.
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Old 07-16-2008, 10:24 AM   #22
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the difference is that you can't just replace all your Intel chips overnight, but you can clear out all your accounts from Lehman or another bank very fast.

and they have a lot of debt they took out to buy all their assets. if the assets don't perform they still have to pay the entire debt.
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Old 07-16-2008, 10:34 AM   #23
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the difference is that you can't just replace all your Intel chips overnight, but you can clear out all your accounts from Lehman or another bank very fast.

and they have a lot of debt they took out to buy all their assets. if the assets don't perform they still have to pay the entire debt.
Thank you for pointing out the difference. Like I said, I paid no attention to financials, other than seeing that even veteran value mutual fund managers got blindsided too.
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Old 07-16-2008, 11:46 AM   #24
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The case I am seeing with financial stocks is this. The price won't go to zero, same as most of my past semiconductor stocks. These are real companies, with brick-n-mortar buildings, factories, not like some ridiculuous dotcoms. BUT, if their reputations have been damaged, and they have lost the trust of the investors, they may have a tough time.
I think the reason that people have been investing in financials is pretty ingenuous*: that's where the money is.

And that's probably among the first places the money will come back to.

But if it doesn't, then that's what asset allocation & rebalancing are all about...


*No, I really did spell that correctly.
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Old 07-16-2008, 02:49 PM   #25
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Yes, you spell ingenuous correctly, but I have to look it up. Without the hint, one would have thought otherwise.

Sure, it's fun to take a little gamble sometimes. But why empty all your rounds in one burst? I like to joke around with my friends: "How many shots have you left?", after knowing they have done some bargain hunting, trying to "catch the falling knife".

I like to picture a foot soldier going into battle. Don't you want to conserve your rounds, not firing from the hip, but waiting for the best opportunity? You still miss often, but your chance is much improved. Seems to work for me so far.

By the way, I forgot that the REASON I have never followed financials was that my wife worked for one. She has plenty in her 401k, which I liquidated earlier this year. I did a right thing once in a while.
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Old 07-16-2008, 02:56 PM   #26
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I like to picture a foot soldier going into battle. Don't you want to conserve your rounds, not firing from the hip, but waiting for the best opportunity? You still miss often, but your chance is much improved. Seems to work for me so far.
Don't shoot until you see the greens of their dividends!

Damn the torpedoes and full DCA ahead!

I only regret that I have but one portfolio to manage for my retirement.

Ask not what your portfolio can do for you, ask what you can do for your portfolio.

The only thing we have to fear is greed itself.

That's one small investment for me, one giant DRIP for my kind.
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Old 07-16-2008, 03:06 PM   #27
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Very funny! That's the spirit!

Since I have liquidated my wife's company stock, we have no financials, except what's in our MFs. Time for me to look around, to be ready to pick among the rubble. I don't know if it's time yet though.

The situation is similar to what happened after Enron. All utility companies were tossed out with the bad boy. I picked up a few afterwards, such as TXU (no longer public), and Excelon. Nice, nice gains... Made up for all my past sins with semis such as Conexant.
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Old 07-16-2008, 07:16 PM   #28
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Well VA I hope you bought more BAC had a nice jump to day, and it seems to be holding in after hours trading.
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Old 07-16-2008, 07:18 PM   #29
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Well VA I hope you bought more BAC had a nice jump to day, and it seems to be holding in after hours trading.
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Old 07-16-2008, 10:47 PM   #30
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I picked up some more BAC and WFC as the market was opening...today was a nice day!
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Old 07-17-2008, 01:06 PM   #31
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Don't shoot until you see the greens of their dividends!

Damn the torpedoes and full DCA ahead!

I only regret that I have but one portfolio to manage for my retirement.

Ask not what your portfolio can do for you, ask what you can do for your portfolio.

The only thing we have to fear is greed itself.

That's one small investment for me, one giant DRIP for my kind.
Marquette, you are a fast thinker. It took you 7 min to think of 6 lines.

Here's one more:

"I don't know but I've been told ... Buying low is good for me...".

Congratulations to those who bought BAC yesterday. I saw that Wells Fargo reported good earnings, and that lifted the entire sector.

PS. When would you sell? Seriously, these financials look tempting, but as they say, you always need an "exit strategy".
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Old 07-17-2008, 01:37 PM   #32
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Staying the course, except for some play money that bought NM at $9.30. It promptly dropped into the eights...

But back even today!
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Old 07-17-2008, 08:08 PM   #33
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Marquette, you are a fast thinker. It took you 7 min to think of 6 lines.

Here's one more:

"I don't know but I've been told ... Buying low is good for me...".
Well, if it helps, it took so long because I got distracted and didn't check back for a few minutes. My poor, poor coworkers.... I'm way more annoying in person. They get a laugh now and then at least.
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