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Old 11-07-2013, 02:16 PM   #21
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Anybody thinking about shorting it now that it's already up about 92%??
Afraid I don't have the (ahem) testosterone levels for that. The market can stay irrational for much longer than I can stay solvent
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Old 11-07-2013, 02:27 PM   #22
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Anybody thinking about shorting it now that it's already up about 92%??
Not sure that can be done yet. Sure am glad I got that zero allocation though. That makes playing it very simple, not going near it now!

If I'd have received an allocation I'd probably would sell 1/2 here. That would mean I violated Fidelity's no flipping rule (15 day hold). Didn't dig into what the penalty for flipping is.

MRG
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Old 11-07-2013, 04:49 PM   #23
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Not sure that can be done yet. Sure am glad I got that zero allocation though. That makes playing it very simple, not going near it now!

If I'd have received an allocation I'd probably would sell 1/2 here. That would mean I violated Fidelity's no flipping rule (15 day hold). Didn't dig into what the penalty for flipping is.

MRG
I think you're excluded for a while, then banned if you do it again.
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Old 11-07-2013, 05:49 PM   #24
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I never traded Amazon, but same as you, thought it was overpriced. About book sales, we both did not have the imagination to think it could be selling more than books later. Of course, so many e-commerce companies crashed and burned.

I still do not know what to expect, so buy no IPOs nor companies that do not yet make money. Well, I do occasionally buy companies that lose money but only companies with a long history, in the hope that they will turn around.
One of the things I learned this century is the same skills that make me an above average value investor, are of no use in trying to pick winning growth stocks. Even in the late 90s when I was heavily involved in the internet and had access to lots of info the average investor didn't, I still couldn't pick winners better than average and possibly even worse.

I knew Tesla was going to be an awesome car before the general public, and ordered one before the price hike and glowing reviews. But I thought Tesla stock was richly priced at $30 so I didn't really consider buying it.

I did make some money in 99 flipping internet IPOs,but that is like shooting fish in barrel with a shotgun, no skill required.

I'll own some Twitter stock as soon as the folks at Vanguard Total Stock Market buy it.
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Old 11-07-2013, 06:08 PM   #25
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A couple of coworkers bought small blocks (one bought 40 shares, one bought 50 shares). Both are underwater at the end of the day.
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Old 11-07-2013, 06:46 PM   #26
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Three Words - "Green Shoe Option"

Make sure you understand how this works and why you may not want to be long in the stock going into the 30 day point.

Hint Underwriting broker artificially supports the stock price without risk to them during the first 30 days. All upside for the underwriter, but no downside risk.

But only for 30 days. After that point, the market decides the price.

-gauss
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Old 11-07-2013, 07:41 PM   #27
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Got allocated 100 shares through Schwab at the IPO price. First time Schwab has come through for me on an IPO.

Was tempted to dump it today when it was trading close to 50 but resisted the temptation. I think I will hold on for a while now to see where it goes.
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Old 11-12-2013, 05:25 AM   #28
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Cramer was talking about these tech IPO's back when everyone was gung ho about Facebook. Avoid these website IPO's! They always drop in price going out a few months. Only Goldman Sach's makes money by pushing them on unsavy investors who didn't get Cramer's memo.
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Old 11-12-2013, 07:48 AM   #29
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Cramer was talking about these tech IPO's back when everyone was gung ho about Facebook. Avoid these website IPO's! They always drop in price going out a few months. Only Goldman Sach's makes money by pushing them on unsavy investors who didn't get Cramer's memo.
Jim Cramer is usually a good contrarian signal. And when I was at work, we'd have CNBC on in the background and I would break pencils and lose track of my code when he hit his buzzers and do-dads. It got to the point where I had to leave the floor from 6 PM- 7PM. But I agree with him here.

Wait for the lockups to expire. Then buy.

Big tech firms with a lot of buzz seem to do fairly well after the first six months, if Google and Facebook are any indication. But Twitter probably has a bunch of lockup agreements that will expire, people will sell, and the price, all else being equal will come down. At the same time, there won't be the huge flood of retail buyers driving up the price.
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