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anybody going to play twitter IPO
11-04-2013, 09:54 AM
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#1
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 11,078
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anybody going to play twitter IPO
I never had played an IPO(except Megacorp). So I did apply for a block of twitter shares, no idea if I'll even get in. Anybody else trying to get in?
MRG
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11-05-2013, 08:50 AM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 7,677
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I will wait for the market to decide the price. At $15, I was confident in upside. At $23, it is looking like Facebook. The days of dotcom speculations are back!
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For the fun of it...Keith
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11-05-2013, 09:59 AM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,366
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The Twitter IPO is looking a lot like the Facebook IPO. I'll sit this one out.
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11-05-2013, 10:03 AM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 1,994
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Sitting out....but watching it.
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11-05-2013, 11:41 AM
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#5
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Sac suburb
Posts: 437
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11-05-2013, 09:31 PM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,588
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by MRG
I never had played an IPO(except Megacorp). So I did apply for a block of twitter shares, no idea if I'll even get in. Anybody else trying to get in?
MRG
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Are you nuts? 
__________________
I have outlived most of the people I don't like and I am working on the rest.
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11-06-2013, 07:12 AM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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I only participated in a dot-com IPO once, at the peak of the bubble in 1999. Turned $1900 into $6100 in a matter of a few minutes. It was pure "mad money" so I was willing to take the chance, though in the mania at the time it seemed pretty close to a (very) short-term "sure thing".
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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11-06-2013, 10:04 AM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Chattanooga
Posts: 3,891
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I'll stick with my boring index funds.
__________________
Earning money is an action, saving money is a behavior, growing money takes a well diversified portfolio and the discipline to ignore market swings.
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11-06-2013, 12:43 PM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 1,570
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Who are the underwriters? Usually, they reserve supposedly hot deals for clients who either do lots of IPOs or are really big revenue generators. I doubt that describes anyone on this board.
__________________
You know that suit they burying you in? Thar aint no pockets in that suit, boy.
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11-06-2013, 12:48 PM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 11,078
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I got a notice from Fidelity, think it's being underwritten by G.S. So I know that I may get zero shares. Won't know the final price till after 6PM. Then I have to re confirm interest.
MRG
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11-06-2013, 05:52 PM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Chicago
Posts: 1,008
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They bumped up the price range from $17-20 to $23-25 and then gets priced at $26.
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11-06-2013, 06:15 PM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 11,078
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Yep, probably won't get a share. But what the heck.
MRG
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11-06-2013, 07:20 PM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,733
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Forget buying the stock that is too boring. I am going to buy a $1 million dollars worth of twitter call options or maybe puts or both. That is the ticket to getting rich 
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11-06-2013, 07:38 PM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 2,179
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#+1
#wouldratherdrive50mphinfogontheinterstate
The current valuation is something like $14Billion, and a user base of roughly 225 million.
So that means each user is 'worth' $75 or so. How will they commercialize it enough to have any net earnings anywhere near $75/user?
And that's earnings - not revenue! Granted, they should have high net margins from a low cost structure....but advertisers paying THAT much for it?
At least with Facebook, with a user base of, what, 1 Billion people and 250 million active users, at least they're "only" valued at maybe twice that for each user - but at least there is ad revenue coming in. Twitter - I just don't see being able to convert that user base to enough revenue from ads or anything else.
__________________
Dryer sheets Schmyer sheets
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11-07-2013, 02:23 AM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,733
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I don't have much of an opinion on twitter, other than to point out that while their are plenty of story stocks which are miserable failures (Zynga). Some are monster success. When Amazon public, I remember figuring out that even if they got 1/3 of all the book sales in the country (they were only a few percent at the time) there was no way you could justify the price. ( Amazon went public at $18/share ($1.50 after stock splits) didn't do great its first couple of months, but at 356 today it is up almost 240 times. I even shorted Amazon in at times in 1999.
I've had a twitter account for 5 years but only really being using in the last couple of year, and I have seen ads on it. Like all social media it has good and bad features.
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11-07-2013, 03:18 AM
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#16
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 2,984
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I don't buy individual stocks, IPO or otherwise. However my wife might go to the casino, which still puts me in a risky position today
__________________
Took SS at 62 and hope I live long enough to regret the decision.
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11-07-2013, 07:42 AM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 11,078
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My allocation a big zero, maybe that's a good thing.
MRG
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11-07-2013, 07:59 AM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,797
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kcowan
I will wait for the market to decide the price. At $15, I was confident in upside. At $23, it is looking like Facebook. The days of dotcom speculations are back!
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^^^
Looking more like $44-45 open this AM.
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11-07-2013, 09:23 AM
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#19
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clifp
...When Amazon public, I remember figuring out that even if they got 1/3 of all the book sales in the country (they were only a few percent at the time) there was no way you could justify the price...
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I never traded Amazon, but same as you, thought it was overpriced. About book sales, we both did not have the imagination to think it could be selling more than books later. Of course, so many e-commerce companies crashed and burned.
I still do not know what to expect, so buy no IPOs nor companies that do not yet make money. Well, I do occasionally buy companies that lose money but only companies with a long history, in the hope that they will turn around.
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11-07-2013, 09:34 AM
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#20
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 226
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Anybody thinking about shorting it now that it's already up about 92%??
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