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anybody going to play twitter IPO
Old 11-04-2013, 10:54 AM   #1
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anybody going to play twitter IPO

I never had played an IPO(except Megacorp). So I did apply for a block of twitter shares, no idea if I'll even get in. Anybody else trying to get in?

MRG
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Old 11-05-2013, 09:50 AM   #2
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I will wait for the market to decide the price. At $15, I was confident in upside. At $23, it is looking like Facebook. The days of dotcom speculations are back!
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Old 11-05-2013, 10:59 AM   #3
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The Twitter IPO is looking a lot like the Facebook IPO. I'll sit this one out.
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Old 11-05-2013, 11:03 AM   #4
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Sitting out....but watching it.
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Old 11-05-2013, 12:41 PM   #5
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Might be of interest (from Mashable)

Can You Get Rich by Investing $1,000 During an Internet IPO?
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Old 11-05-2013, 10:31 PM   #6
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I never had played an IPO(except Megacorp). So I did apply for a block of twitter shares, no idea if I'll even get in. Anybody else trying to get in?

MRG
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Old 11-06-2013, 08:12 AM   #7
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I only participated in a dot-com IPO once, at the peak of the bubble in 1999. Turned $1900 into $6100 in a matter of a few minutes. It was pure "mad money" so I was willing to take the chance, though in the mania at the time it seemed pretty close to a (very) short-term "sure thing".
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Old 11-06-2013, 11:04 AM   #8
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I'll stick with my boring index funds.
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Old 11-06-2013, 01:43 PM   #9
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Who are the underwriters? Usually, they reserve supposedly hot deals for clients who either do lots of IPOs or are really big revenue generators. I doubt that describes anyone on this board.
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Old 11-06-2013, 01:48 PM   #10
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I got a notice from Fidelity, think it's being underwritten by G.S. So I know that I may get zero shares. Won't know the final price till after 6PM. Then I have to re confirm interest.

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Old 11-06-2013, 06:52 PM   #11
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They bumped up the price range from $17-20 to $23-25 and then gets priced at $26.
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Old 11-06-2013, 07:15 PM   #12
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Yep, probably won't get a share. But what the heck.

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Old 11-06-2013, 08:20 PM   #13
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Forget buying the stock that is too boring. I am going to buy a $1 million dollars worth of twitter call options or maybe puts or both. That is the ticket to getting rich
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Old 11-06-2013, 08:38 PM   #14
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Are you nuts?
#+1
#wouldratherdrive50mphinfogontheinterstate

The current valuation is something like $14Billion, and a user base of roughly 225 million.

So that means each user is 'worth' $75 or so. How will they commercialize it enough to have any net earnings anywhere near $75/user?

And that's earnings - not revenue! Granted, they should have high net margins from a low cost structure....but advertisers paying THAT much for it?

At least with Facebook, with a user base of, what, 1 Billion people and 250 million active users, at least they're "only" valued at maybe twice that for each user - but at least there is ad revenue coming in. Twitter - I just don't see being able to convert that user base to enough revenue from ads or anything else.
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Old 11-07-2013, 03:23 AM   #15
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I don't have much of an opinion on twitter, other than to point out that while their are plenty of story stocks which are miserable failures (Zynga). Some are monster success. When Amazon public, I remember figuring out that even if they got 1/3 of all the book sales in the country (they were only a few percent at the time) there was no way you could justify the price. ( Amazon went public at $18/share ($1.50 after stock splits) didn't do great its first couple of months, but at 356 today it is up almost 240 times. I even shorted Amazon in at times in 1999.

I've had a twitter account for 5 years but only really being using in the last couple of year, and I have seen ads on it. Like all social media it has good and bad features.
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Old 11-07-2013, 04:18 AM   #16
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I don't buy individual stocks, IPO or otherwise. However my wife might go to the casino, which still puts me in a risky position today
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Old 11-07-2013, 08:42 AM   #17
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My allocation a big zero, maybe that's a good thing.

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Old 11-07-2013, 08:59 AM   #18
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I will wait for the market to decide the price. At $15, I was confident in upside. At $23, it is looking like Facebook. The days of dotcom speculations are back!
^^^
Looking more like $44-45 open this AM.
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Old 11-07-2013, 10:23 AM   #19
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...When Amazon public, I remember figuring out that even if they got 1/3 of all the book sales in the country (they were only a few percent at the time) there was no way you could justify the price...
I never traded Amazon, but same as you, thought it was overpriced. About book sales, we both did not have the imagination to think it could be selling more than books later. Of course, so many e-commerce companies crashed and burned.

I still do not know what to expect, so buy no IPOs nor companies that do not yet make money. Well, I do occasionally buy companies that lose money but only companies with a long history, in the hope that they will turn around.
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Old 11-07-2013, 10:34 AM   #20
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Anybody thinking about shorting it now that it's already up about 92%??
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