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06-24-2018, 03:01 PM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 1,961
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anybody smell smoke?
Had an odd feeling this morning.
I've been watching short term brokered CD rates and bank savings rate climb steadily... Oct 2017 a 1yr CD was 1.5%, today its 2.4%... .1% increase a month on average. As a ratio, thats a pretty steep climb.
Since everything is interconnected, something else has got to be starting to crack.
I'll admit to a significant bias to an implosion. If things were so great, central banks would not be printing money and propping up the stock market with the funds.
But... today something just feels "funny".
Anybody else smell smoke?
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06-24-2018, 03:08 PM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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"Feelings" are dangerous when it comes to investing.
__________________
Numbers is hard
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06-24-2018, 03:11 PM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 10,252
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I am told that the economy is just smokin' along nowadays.
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06-24-2018, 04:47 PM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Western US
Posts: 1,214
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Central banks can remain solvent longer than markets can remain rational.
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06-24-2018, 07:51 PM
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#5
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Dec 2012
Posts: 94
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That's a lot of intuition and feelings for someone who calls himself Spock. 
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06-24-2018, 07:58 PM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Moscow
Posts: 1,572
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It's his human side, Jim. 
__________________
You can't enlighten the unconscious.
But you can hit'em upside the head a few times to make sure they are really out...
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06-24-2018, 08:01 PM
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#7
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gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by Spock
Had an odd feeling this morning.
I'll admit to a significant bias to an implosion.
... today something just feels "funny".
Anybody else smell smoke?
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Nope. Maybe you are thinking too hard?
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06-24-2018, 08:46 PM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Tellico Village
Posts: 2,622
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No smoke, just mirrors 
__________________
Retired May 13th(Friday) 2016 at age 61.
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06-24-2018, 09:37 PM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2016
Posts: 8,968
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I smell the smoke from my lump charcoal slow cooking the pork spare ribs in the big green egg.
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06-25-2018, 05:48 AM
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#10
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Miami
Posts: 337
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If interest rates are going up because of an improving economy then it may not be as bad as it sounds. But you are right, everything is interconnected. You have to watch the dollar and emerging markets.
I am staying the course.
__________________
FIRE July 2015
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06-25-2018, 06:09 AM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,373
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spock
.... Anybody else smell smoke?
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Not at all... in fact, as others have pointed out, interest rates are behaving as expected, the economy improves, inflation is a concern and the Fed increases rates, lifting off the accelerator. Perhaps the speed of the impact on 1 year CDs is more than expected, but that is a nuance.
If you smell smoke, perhaps you are looking for fire.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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06-25-2018, 06:31 AM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,145
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I think the market ran up too fast recently, but I’ve been rebalancing on the way up, and I expect to rebalance on the way down. I tend to expect the market to go down. Even if the market drops steeply, things would go back to where they were a few years ago well after the 2009 recovery.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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06-25-2018, 06:38 AM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,373
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+1 I did do a number of small rebalancings last year to "lock in" equity gains as it seemed to me that equities were rising too fast... and did a small one just last week but that one was just between dometic and foreign equities.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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06-25-2018, 07:30 AM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Hog Mountian
Posts: 2,077
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Sniff.
Sniff-sniff.
Sniff-sniff-sniff.
Nope. No smoke, but maybe some market timing or speculation.
__________________
Never let yesterday use up too much of today.
W. Rogers
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06-25-2018, 09:45 AM
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#15
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 1,961
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Its Pon Farr week... 
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06-25-2018, 02:06 PM
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#16
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: North
Posts: 4,043
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LOL!
I am told that the economy is just smokin' along nowadays.
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Especially in Canada eh? Oh that's just a skunk I smell.
__________________
Time > $$$ ~ 100% equities ~ FIRE @2031
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06-29-2018, 03:00 PM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 10,252
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The 2nd quarter ended, so maybe there was a bit of so-called "window dressing" here at the end.
Today was odd to me with the fade only in US equities here in the late afternoon, but foreign equities kept on smokin'.
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06-30-2018, 06:37 PM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 3,085
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The Fed balance sheet roll off is sucking 30 billion a month, increasing to 50 billion in Q4, out of the banking system. Don't fight the Fed.
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06-30-2018, 08:55 PM
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#19
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 17,265
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More inflation = people demanding higher interest rates.
Inflation is currently pushing 2.5% for the last 12 months.
__________________
Comparison is the thief of joy
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
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06-30-2018, 09:40 PM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 11,299
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chuckanut
More inflation = people demanding higher interest rates.
Inflation is currently pushing 2.5% for the last 12 months.
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If the Fed's guideline is 2%, then why keep raising the Fed rates?
__________________
TGIM
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