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Old 08-04-2011, 05:15 PM   #61
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With apologies to cat lovers, tomorrow ought to at least "dead cat bounce."
How high the feline flys, may depend on the jobs report.
It's actually Monday I worry about.
In any case, I'll no doubt take another dose of DVY.
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Old 08-04-2011, 06:02 PM   #62
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With apologies to cat lovers, tomorrow ought to at least "dead cat bounce."
How high the feline flys, may depend on the jobs report.
It's actually Monday I worry about.
In any case, I'll no doubt take another dose of DVY.
This is not a prediction, but it remains true that once the public changes course they tend to presist in that new course for a while.

It might be instructive to review the threads right here on this board after the market had started down in late fall of 2007. Lot's of announcements of "blue plate specials" that turned out to be not so special, at least when the offer price is compared to what it might be 12 or 18 months later.

Without QE (1), we might still be looking for a bottom. And although I have no doubts BigBen would make QE(3,4,5...i), the current political situation may make it hard for him to do, or make the results different if it were done.

It is tempting to bite at a "bargain", but many quality stocks were cheaper as recently as last August , even after the setback of the last few days.

Ha
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Old 08-04-2011, 06:10 PM   #63
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I've been aggressively buying...

July 29th - NLY, 220 @ $15.97 & 600 @ $16.51 Now @ $17.93 & 15% divy on top.
Aug 1 - ABT, 200 @ $50.48 and VSVIX 2000 @ $16.13 (small value fund)
Aug 2 - VFINX, 142 @ $115.63 (s&p index fund)

8 days down is my signal to buy in...NLY was a gift that day...just like all the mREITS.

My TGT, CTL, TOT & PNRA has been suckin' wind though...still up appx. 5% for the year vs. 0 to down for Nas & Dow.
Shows what I know...added to my PNRA and bought some CMG today...
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Old 08-04-2011, 06:11 PM   #64
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Without QE (1), we might still be looking for a bottom. And although I have no doubts BigBen would make QE(3,4,5...i), the current political situation may make it hard for him to do, or make the results different if it were done.
We really did back ourselves into a corner by not getting serious about the debt when we could most afford it -- when the economy was strong, tax revenues were more robust and 95% of the people had jobs.

Had we done those things, maybe we wouldn't feel the urgency to push toward austerity at the worst possible economic time to do so. But we are now faced with two very unpleasant options; tax hikes and spending cuts in a terrible economy (the worst time to do either) or continue to pile up a debt which is bordering on completely out of control.

I suspect Ben's helicopter would be flying a lot more if we could have generated some surpluses (or even balanced budgets) in stronger economic times. But the sheer size of the debt today is causing it to be grounded more than it would otherwise be.
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Old 08-04-2011, 06:21 PM   #65
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Sitting here listening to Cramer and my mind wandered back to a discussion I had years ago on an airplane. The guy worked for Realty Income Corp. He spoke highly of the company and their leadership, their criteria for investment. Does anyone have an opinion about O today?
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Old 08-04-2011, 09:12 PM   #66
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Sitting here listening to Cramer and my mind wandered back to a discussion I had years ago on an airplane. The guy worked for Realty Income Corp. He spoke highly of the company and their leadership, their criteria for investment. Does anyone have an opinion about O today?

O is a core holding of mine, although I did sell a large chunk in the low 30s when my covered calls got exercised. I have written puts for the stock at 30 and I will not be at all upset if they get exercised in Dec.

To me it is one of the ultimate dividend stocks, in that management is really focused on how can I make money for our long-term shareholders. You can't read their wonderful annual reports and not get a feeling that these guys understand the importance of dividends. Now I freely admit that I've bought into the story of the company and that colors my evaluation of the stock price. So I'm probably paying at at least 10% more than its worth due to management/story, but still at $30/share it yielding 6% and has long long history of raising dividends.
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Old 08-04-2011, 09:30 PM   #67
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I have to say today was a quite a shock. I didn't even realize the market was done until 30 minutes before a volunteer activity. So I missed all of the excitement, I remember the days of 6 figure losses in my portfolio, so since I missed that today I don't feel horribly bad.

I shorted a couple of stocks a couple of weeks ago including Neflix which suffered a gratifying $14 loss today. I also had open order for puts, most all of which got executed. Most of these don't expire until Dec or Jan. if the market is still down at the time I won't be upset to pick up Cisco at $12 Microsoft @24, Abbott Labs or $48. I am less thrilled with Pfizer at $16 and GE @$17. I also bought small positions in the Schwab broad market and international index funds since they are commission free.

The only position which bothers me is I had put Aug 34 put outstanding for USO the oil ETF, and the price of USO dropped to 33.74.
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Old 08-04-2011, 11:56 PM   #68
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Sitting here listening to Cramer...
Well, I think we're beginning to zero in on the problem.

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Does anyone have an opinion about O today?
Here's a good starting point:
Dividend Growth Investor: Realty Income (O) Dividend Stock Analysis
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Old 08-05-2011, 12:15 AM   #69
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It was all I could do to resist exchanging some Stable Value for S&P 500 in my 401k today. Watching CNBC from 3 to 4 was like watching a horror movie, the speed and magnitude of the decline was breathe taking. We were at -350 on the DJIA at 11:45 from -250 just a few minutes earlier but that last hour made that look tame.

I figured Friday will be down again so I held off but it was hard, at 3:58 I was still trying to decide.

I exchanged some on 7/29 which now looks like a huge mistake and again on 8/3 as that looked like a good point but after today I question that. I'm not so sure another exchange before 1150 makes sense now. Maybe 1100?

This is looking scary again. The problem is you have no idea just how low this will go, a good entry point now may be a terrible one in a week if we drop another 10%. My exchanges have been just 5% so they aren't big but do 3 or 4 and that starts to really shift AA.
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Old 08-05-2011, 07:10 AM   #70
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Well, I think we're beginning to zero in on the problem.


Here's a good starting point:
Dividend Growth Investor: Realty Income (O) Dividend Stock Analysis
A decent analysis. It is worth noting that the payout ratio from FFO dropped from almost 95% to a more sustainable 90% ratio in the latest quarter.


Also I highly recommend that you check out the Realty Income website which is probably more investor friendly than any I've seen. The 2010 Annual report is only ok, but several of the past years have been fun and very educational.
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Old 08-05-2011, 10:25 AM   #71
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To me it is one of the ultimate dividend stocks, in that management is really focused on how can I make money for our long-term shareholders. You can't read their wonderful annual reports and not get a feeling that these guys understand the importance of dividends... So I'm probably paying at at least 10% more than its worth due to management/story, but still at $30/share it yielding 6% and has long long history of raising dividends.
Sorry for a dumb question but I saw that they announced a dividend of $.144875 payable August 15th. I don't see how this squares with the reference to a 6% dividend yield. What am I missing?

Thx
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Old 08-05-2011, 10:41 AM   #72
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Sorry for a dumb question but I saw that they announced a dividend of $.144875 payable August 15th. I don't see how this squares with the reference to a 6% dividend yield. What am I missing?

Thx
.144 per month = about $1.73 per year

For a $31 stock, that equates to approximately 5.5% (of course this changes as the stock price changes)
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Old 08-05-2011, 12:09 PM   #73
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Took a liitle out of VFSUX today and put it into my VWIAX holding.Boring,not very daring,but it felt good.
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Old 08-05-2011, 01:24 PM   #74
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I am patiently waiting for the S&P to drop to around 1120. That's where it was on 3/3/10 when I rebalanced into a more conservative AA. The only problem was that I did it in a Key West bar and my napkin calculations were a little off.
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Old 08-05-2011, 03:58 PM   #75
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.144 per month = about $1.73 per year

For a $31 stock, that equates to approximately 5.5% (of course this changes as the stock price changes)
I was suggesting a buy price of $30, and reinvesting the monthly dividends (compounding) which makes the yield at $30 5.92%. O closed today at $30.01
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Old 08-05-2011, 07:42 PM   #76
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I was suggesting a buy price of $30, and reinvesting the monthly dividends (compounding) which makes the yield at $30 5.92%. O closed today at $30.01

I have owned the O preferred shares, O-E and O-D, for some time now. If I include dividends received, my cost basis is well below the $25 liquidation value if O were to retire the two issues.

I look at these 2 issues like an ultra long term CD, with a maturity value of $25 and monthly payments. The only real risk is the issuing company going belly up, which is a low probability IMO.

Today's carnage took the two issues close to par. If I did not already have a full allocation, I would have bought more O-E at $25.00.
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Old 08-05-2011, 08:09 PM   #77
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I am curious why the preferred vs the common. It look like you get an additional 100 to 125 basis point of yield but if O continues to increase dividends at 4-5% a year that difference is erased in 4 or 5 years.
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Old 08-05-2011, 09:05 PM   #78
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CNBC will be holding a special on the mkt at 9:00 this Sunday night. They will be discussing what they think will be happening and what to do.

I'm waiting to see if Europe does take care of their monetary problems next week, or just talking. Some analysts say Europe can't afford it.

But then too, S&P just downgraded us to AA+, so I can't talk. Analysts were suggesting buying stocks that concentrate on the U.S. only....VZ, T, WM...etc

None of the funds in my 401K are U.S. oriented only. They all have multi-national stocks, so I'm sticking to Stable Value and PTTRX.
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Old 08-05-2011, 09:36 PM   #79
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I am curious why the preferred vs the common. It look like you get an additional 100 to 125 basis point of yield but if O continues to increase dividends at 4-5% a year that difference is erased in 4 or 5 years.
What you say is quite true; but I do like knowing that if the company ever calls the issue I will get $25 for each preferred share. So long as I do not sell, I will enjoy the monthly dividends indefinitely. The only real risk of loss is if O ever becomes insolvent, which I do not believe will happen.

I do have other dividend paying stocks and MLPs ( eg, LINE & DUK ) so I'm covering the area of steadily increasing dividends, as well.
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Might be time to buy now??
Old 08-08-2011, 01:30 PM   #80
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Might be time to buy now??

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