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Anyone play the sell Intel in the upper 20s and buy in the lower 20s game?
Old 01-15-2014, 02:26 PM   #1
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Anyone play the sell Intel in the upper 20s and buy in the lower 20s game?

I bought 500 shares this past winter around 21 as my sole fun stock to buy. I have since read some people over the years do this with Intel. It has jumped a lot the past few days and is now in that territory. Just curious if anyone who owns this does, or will just hold on to it riding it up and down and just collect the dividend.
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Old 01-15-2014, 02:27 PM   #2
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I bought it a year or twp ago (forget when) around 20. If it starts to approach 30 I will sell some covered calls.
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Old 01-15-2014, 02:34 PM   #3
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I bought it a year or twp ago (forget when) around 20. If it starts to approach 30 I will sell some covered calls.
Looking at it's 10 year chart, it seems like it never wants to quite get to 30 before sliding back down again. Of course it could be different this time. I wouldn't have anything to buy with it, if I sold, and the profits are insignificant to my livelihood, but I sure would love to prove to myself I was a "smart stock trader" one time in my life! The trouble is the capital gains won't be considered long term for another 3 weeks, and I don't want to pay 25% plus 6% state.
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Old 01-15-2014, 03:03 PM   #4
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I wrote some covered call at 25 which looks like will be exercised for stock I bought at $20.25 . The rest of my Intel is at the less than $1 and I hate to pay that much tax so I'll hang on.

There were many times in the past decade I thought it might get above $30. It would be ironic with more headwinds facing Intel (slumping PC demand, difficulty in breaking into mobile, no dividend increase in a couple of years) now than anytime this century if it made it this year.
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Old 01-15-2014, 03:10 PM   #5
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I do not own Intel shares, nor follow it. But at dividend yield of 3.4%, it has resigned to be a stodgy dividend-paying stock and not a growth one.

They have just postponed indefinitely the opening a $3B plant not too far from where I live, due to lack of demand.
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Old 01-15-2014, 03:19 PM   #6
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There are about 5 or 6 stocks worth buying in the stock market:

Apple, Microsoft, Cisco, Corning, Intel, and maybe Exxon

Those five stocks have a lower PE and more cash than almost any other company. By coincidence, they all pay a nice sustainable dividend (based on the ultra low payout ratios...I think Apple's is like 28%).

Everything else in the market is a gamble, but those six are my go to stocks when they get oversold (like Corning for $12 last year, Microsoft for $26, Apple for $380, etc.) I can buy any one of the six and sleep at night knowing they will not do a Lehman Bros on me.
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Old 01-15-2014, 03:29 PM   #7
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Looking at it's 10 year chart, it seems like it never wants to quite get to 30 before sliding back down again. Of course it could be different this time. I wouldn't have anything to buy with it, if I sold, and the profits are insignificant to my livelihood, but I sure would love to prove to myself I was a "smart stock trader" one time in my life! The trouble is the capital gains won't be considered long term for another 3 weeks, and I don't want to pay 25% plus 6% state.
I have a very small position. I bought it around 20 because it looked cheap. If it gets to 30 it will no longer be cheap so I will sell. Never even looked at a chart and generally don't care about them.
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Old 01-15-2014, 03:32 PM   #8
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I wrote some covered call at 25 which looks like will be exercised for stock I bought at $20.25 . The rest of my Intel is at the less than $1 and I hate to pay that much tax so I'll hang on. There were many times in the past decade I thought it might get above $30. It would be ironic with more headwinds facing Intel (slumping PC demand, difficulty in breaking into mobile, no dividend increase in a couple of years) now than anytime this century if it made it this year.
And this is why I do not understand stock movement.. It would appear to me with only what I read on the net that the stock should be at its 52 low, not high! That is why I was thinking maybe sell, and buy again later. I did think about Cisco like Femion mentioned, but it has crawled back up a bit too. The humorist part of this all with my little stock purchase of Intel, is after this run up, in have made about the same amount of money the past 11 months if I had just put the money in an S&P 500 fund. Of course that defeats the purpose of having a little fun.
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Old 01-15-2014, 03:40 PM   #9
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Intel makes things like 3D tri-gate transistors. Coming up with stuff like that every few years...somehow I don't think they will be going the way of Kodak.
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Old 01-15-2014, 03:58 PM   #10
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I sold mine sometime in 1986, I think, in the low '20s. Adjusted for splits, that's somewhere around $0.35 in today's money.
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Old 01-15-2014, 04:02 PM   #11
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I sold mine sometime in 1986, I think, in the low '20s. Adjusted for splits, that's somewhere around $0.35 in today's money.
My earliest stock options are from almost exactly that time 1986. They are either $.625 or $.3125 I lost track of the splits. I don't normally pay attention to "yield on cost', but in this case for bragging rights with $.90 annual dividend...
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Old 01-15-2014, 04:12 PM   #12
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INTC has tended to follow (or lead, depending on your POV), the broader semi sector for some time. Highly cyclical and seasonal, chip companies tend to have 4-6 quarters of growth followed by 1-3 quarters of abysmal results ... and it has more or less been repeatable for about 20 yrs.

That doesn't explain the INTC movement in detail at all, but it is at least some indication of why the stock seems to have boundaries. IIRC that $18 or $19 is close to book for INTC, so it will have technical support there no matter what.

All semis and the SOXX index have been up the past 2-3 months and this week in particular as modest long term econ improvement has historically been very good for chip businesses that are capital intensive and benefit from long lead time orders.

Many like INTC and other semis if you want to 'ride the cycle'
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Old 01-15-2014, 04:17 PM   #13
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I would think Intel might be a sell if you think the world is becoming more isolated and less dependent on technology.
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Old 01-15-2014, 04:39 PM   #14
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Bot my 1st lot of INTC @ $78 and change back in '98 pre-tech bubble in non taxable account........16 years and a couple of splits later still own the lot which has a 3.84% annualized total return (paid much smaller, split adjusted divvy back then).
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Old 01-15-2014, 07:53 PM   #15
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Around 1999, I have a choice to buy MSFT, INTL and AAPL. I bought MSFT and INTL, but not AAPL. I have been kicking myself since the first iPhone was out...
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Old 01-15-2014, 08:29 PM   #16
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Around 1999, I have a choice to buy MSFT, INTL and AAPL. I bought MSFT and INTL, but not AAPL. I have been kicking myself since the first iPhone was out...
That was the line I was thinking... For over 10 years the stock has been a dog, but if you constantly bought in the low 20s and sold in the upper 20s quite a bit of money could have been made on it, as that has been its range. Of course a person could say that about a lot of stocks I suppose.
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