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View Poll Results: How would you change your equities in the next month or so?
Reduce by as much as -25% 16 7.92%
Reduce by as much as -50% 1 0.50%
Reduce by as much as -75% 1 0.50%
Reduce by as much as -100% 3 1.49%
Increase by as much as +25% 10 4.95%
Increase by as much as +50% 3 1.49%
Increase by as much as +75% 0 0%
Increase by as much as +100% 0 0%
Will not make any changes 168 83.17%
Voters: 202. You may not vote on this poll

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Are you getting ready to make major equity shifts?
Old 08-24-2019, 09:59 AM   #1
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Are you getting ready to make major equity shifts?

In the next month or so are you thinking seriously about making changes? There is a lot of angst out there.

In this poll I am not referring at all to fixed income allocation. So take whatever equities you have and consider that part in isolation for the percentage calculation.

Example:
You have a 60/40 portfolio. Equities are at $600k right now. You are nervous and want to reduce these to set the portfolio at 50/50. So you would reduce equities by $100k. The reduction in just equites is 100/600 which means a -17% reduction. You would answer "Reduce by as much as -25%".
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Old 08-24-2019, 10:19 AM   #2
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Quote:
Are you getting ready to make major equity shifts?
No.

DW is in the process of moving her IRA accounts from USAA Investments (sold to Victory Capital) to Vanguard and may end up with a small reduction in equities, but nothing major. I'm making no changes to my AA.
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Old 08-24-2019, 10:38 AM   #3
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The only asset class I am considering reducing is real estate. It's starting to look an awful lot like 2006 out there...

The only bonds I own are in Welliington and a little Wellesley. Sort of autopilot, set and forget IRA investments. T-Bills for short term cash in the inherited IRA with RMD's. I have two pensions, Social Security and a rental portfolio. I don't need no stinking bonds.
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Old 08-24-2019, 10:45 AM   #4
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Not planning on reducing my equity allocation. If there were a meaningful decline in the next month or so I might increase it by “up to 25%”
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Old 08-24-2019, 10:47 AM   #5
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I usually target 6% cash, but have allowed that to drift up to 15% over the last few months as we've climbed the wall of worry. I've since reverted to using contributions to nudge me back towards my target AA, but if there are any major dislocations I will rebalance more aggressively.
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Old 08-24-2019, 10:59 AM   #6
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No.
We (ages 71/62) have cash/short-term bonds equal to 8+ years of withdrawals.
I am working to reduce, month by month, that to 5+ years.
I really don't think about asset allocation ratios. I just want a cushion against a multi-year downturn.
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Old 08-24-2019, 11:04 AM   #7
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No changes, just like I did in 2008 thankfully. In 1987, I went all in with all the cash we had, and it paid off handsomely. I did nothing when the dotcom bubble burst either. We probably couldn’t have retired early if we had sold off or even reduced equity exposure in 1987, 2000 or 2008.

Sure I worried a little “this time might be different” in 2008, but I didn’t lose any sleep over it because I’d read The Four Pillars of Investing and other books thoroughly explaining market history/behavior/cycles. Every time there are “experts” and many more non-experts saying “this time is different,” and they’ve been wrong every time since 1871. FIRECALC includes the Depression of the 1930’s if you want to see worst case odds, along with other extended recessions. If you sold off during the 2008 recession, odds are you lost money in your portfolio, some people missed out on good returns for years. If you did nothing you had great returns just waiting (see below).

Recessions are unpleasant, seemingly necessary (due to human behavior), but they’ve always been followed by a greater expansion for most modern economies.

Market timing doesn’t work for 99% of even serious investors. Don’t let another poll spook you into thinking smart money is bailing out.
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Old 08-24-2019, 11:06 AM   #8
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Everybody knows that there's a lot of angst out there, so the angst is already reflected in current stock prices. Stay the course.
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Old 08-24-2019, 11:11 AM   #9
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Wise group here, I think.
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Old 08-24-2019, 11:16 AM   #10
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I moved enough from stock funds to cash in tax-advantaged accounts to cover my 2019 withdrawal that will happen at year-end. This was done a couple of months ago and was triggered by exceeding my rebalance bands (prior to the recent downturns).

The only unknown is how much of the withdrawal will be from tax-deferred accounts and how much from tax-free.
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Old 08-24-2019, 11:27 AM   #11
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Buy and hold. Only rebalancing based on range parameters if necessary.
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Old 08-24-2019, 11:37 AM   #12
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My planned AA is 42% equities, 58% fixed (bonds and cash). Normally I only re-balance during the first week in January. Before even considering re-balancing mid year, like this, my re-balancing bands require my equities to be either less than 39.5% or else over 44.5%.

I just recalculated my present AA.

Planned: 42.0% equities, 58.0% fixed.
Today's: 42.6% equities, 57.4% fixed.

"The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling!"
"When in Danger or in Doubt, Run in Circles Scream and Shout!"


(P.S. - - like many of us, I noticed that my nest egg has grown substantially compared with what it was on January 3rd. This whole panic is just a media driven tempest in a teapot, for now, IMO).
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Old 08-24-2019, 11:39 AM   #13
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Yes, bought some late last week and will probably buy more in the weeks to come as opportunities come up. Lot's of dry powder.
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Old 08-24-2019, 11:40 AM   #14
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I am reducing my equity AA somewhat, but not due to any discomfort with equities. Over the last few months I have taken advantage of some credit union CD specials.... Suncoast 3.5% for 5 years, Navy Federal 3.5% for 5 years and GTE Financial 3.0% for 5 years.

Given the economic situation and uncertainty, I'm finding 3.0-3.5% nominal and possibly 1.0% to 2.0% real returns with no credit risk and no interest rate risk hard to resist with brokered 5 year CDs at about 2% nominal... if I take full advantage of these opportunities then my equity percentage would drop from ~60% to ~50% and I'll then let it creep back up to 60%.

I'm well prepared for the flaming that I am a DMT.
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Old 08-24-2019, 11:43 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R View Post
My planned AA is 42% equities, 58% fixed (bonds and cash). Normally I only re-balance during the first week in January. Before even considering re-balancing mid year, like this, my re-balancing bands require my equities to be either less than 39.5% or else over 44.5%.

I just recalculated my present AA.

Planned: 42.0% equities, 58.0% fixed.
Today's: 42.6% equities, 57.4% fixed.

"The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling!"
"When in Danger or in Doubt, Run in Circles Scream and Shout!"
Is this going to have the opposite effect of "Whee"?
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Old 08-24-2019, 11:46 AM   #16
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Major change, no, but I'm considering a small move toward cash and/or PMs. The scheduled December 15th China trade deadline has caught my attention. If stock values drop toward year end, that leaves more room for the following year's year-to-date performance to look better.
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Old 08-24-2019, 11:52 AM   #17
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Is this going to have the opposite effect of "Whee"?
Dunno!!! Bear in mind that right now I am under the influence of heavy (prescription) opioids for pain from my knee replacement surgery eleven days ago....
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Old 08-24-2019, 12:16 PM   #18
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No, staying at 100% stocks (since 1993).
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Old 08-24-2019, 12:39 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
...

Market timing doesn’t work for 99% of even serious investors. Don’t let another poll spook you into thinking smart money is bailing out.
Just want to make it clear that I am not suggesting anybody bail out or change their investment approach. There is no substitute for using your brain and making your own decisions.

I have my own approach but that is not what this poll is about. Just curious what the folks here are thinking.

Now if you want to know what I am going to do ...... your not going to find it here as I don't completely know at this moment which way I will go. This is because I have employed trend following since 2009. I've kept equity allocations in the 50 to 60% range at least as far back as the year 2000.
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Old 08-24-2019, 12:48 PM   #20
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"Scream and Shout!"
Isn't "scream and shout" superfluous?

One is supposed to "Twist and Shout".

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