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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 9,546
Someone with balls is going to make a boatload of cash on financials noone wants to buy........maybe Art G..........
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Consult with your own advisor or representative. My thoughts should not be construed as investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results (love that one).......:)
Some nice sucker sold me USB shares on July 18 (the bottom for the financials) for 27.50, currently trading 2 months later for 41.25 almost a 50% gain in two months. Pretty crazy for company that has been regularly paying dividends since 1865...
Of course another idiot (that would be me) sold BAC for 27.50 last month, it traded at 38.50 pre market.
It's always nice to see the retail investors good guys win one for a change.
I should point out that Intel dropped below $18/share briefly yesterday, a 52-week low from which they've bounced back up over 9% in 24 hours.
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* For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
Someone with balls is going to make a boatload of cash on financials noone wants to buy........maybe Art G..........
if i had a real set of brass ones i would have bet my play/learn tech analysis money all on Oct 08 calls for the indexes and financials including buying on margin.
since i don't i had to settle for the ultra ETF's and some regular GS stock
people there went short earlier in the week or bought short ETF's and got spanked. when i went long on wednesday i checked the put/call ratio and it hit 1.47 on the 15th and started to drop.
i guess a few smart souls remembered there is options expiration today and decided to close out their puts even though the TV said to buy Guns and Ammo. The US Government has a long history of pulling stunts like this and the next day people always go on CNBC and complain how the US Government is against them, shorts etc.
What I can't understand is why didn't KBE or KRE or VFH (Vanguard Financials ETF) get absolutely crushed at anytime this week? I was waiting for a true fire sale.
-CC
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"There's those thinkin' more or less, less is more, but if less is more, how you keepin' score?
It means for every point you make, your level drops. Kinda like you're startin' from the top..." "Society" - Eddie Vedder
Ahhh. Pesky volume. Gets me every time. But, I'd think, since the volume was above average it'd drive the price down sometime, or at least make it "fairer" priced. And with all the doom and gloom, I'd assume fairly valued means less than the start. Much less than the start of the week.
And then the gov't comes in and takes away all the risk.
The more I watch Mr. Market, the less I understand. Still sticking with indexes.
-CC
__________________
"There's those thinkin' more or less, less is more, but if less is more, how you keepin' score?
It means for every point you make, your level drops. Kinda like you're startin' from the top..." "Society" - Eddie Vedder
What I can't understand is why didn't KBE or KRE or VFH (Vanguard Financials ETF) get absolutely crushed at anytime this week? I was waiting for a true fire sale.
-CC
KBE is capitalization-weighted, so it's price movement is dominated by the larger, less volatile (in a relative sense) banks (JPM, WFC, BAC, USB, etc) and it contains no investment banks (eg GS, MS, etc).
My non-retirement stuff includes a small stock portfolio where the bank holdings are. I figured in 30 years they would have to recover. I am in no rush. In fact, if I had cash, I would probably be buying more.
MODERATOR EDIT
Last edited by Gumby; 09-27-2008 at 06:51 AM.
Reason: remove blog link
Cramer is calling the 4 banks that will survive the Fortress 4. Chase, BofA, Wells Fargo and I think Citi is the last one. everyone else is at risk and the smaller ones aren't going to get bailed out
My WFC was a good plan, but my WaMu was not. Keep in mind that the wolves will let the banks they want to buy swing in the wind and pick up the pieces later. Might want to wait a week or more to see which way things are going in mid-October.
Citi is likely to be shrinking its balance sheet, not expanding it.
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Originally Posted by al_bundy
Cramer is calling the 4 banks that will survive the Fortress 4. Chase, BofA, Wells Fargo and I think Citi is the last one. everyone else is at risk and the smaller ones aren't going to get bailed out
WB went from 9 to 23 in 2 days. Anyone trade that range? I chicken out for 1000 shares.
Bought 300 WB in the 9.70 range on 9/16, sold 100 @18.89 on 9/19, sold remaining 200 @ 15.81 on 9/22, plus wrote two sept 22.5 calls on the open on Sept 19th for 2.20 (and closed them out for .15). So, I was very pleased with that one (but should have sold the stock on open vs writing the calls). Bought 400 WB @ 8.93 on Friday afternoon, still holding it...this trade isn't looking so hot as the stock finished after hours at 8.50 and news reports over the weekend imply possible "take over" at much lower numbers. (Proper term is take under, I guess.)
So, given the amounts ($) above, just play time compared to what else is happening to my portfolio. As I mentioned in another post, it is sort of like winning at poker while on my cruise on the titanic.
Quote:
with that one (but should have sold the stock on open vs writing the calls). Bought 400 WB @ 8.93 on Friday afternoon, still holding it...this trade isn't looking so hot as the stock finished after hours at 8.50 and news reports over the weekend imply possible "take over" at much lower numbers. (Proper term is take under, I guess.) 
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