Beyond this land...There will be Dragons!

[NYEXPAT]

Quote:

Originally Posted by gstillson Annnnd, just sold the 1000 Gilead for $66.64, a one day gain of ~$1700

You got more moves then "Jagger"!

[gstillson]

Oops I did it again. Bought 1000 of Gilead yesterday for $64.85 and just sold it for $66.61 this morning.

I really don't know how many times I can slay this dragon. It just keeps respawning and I keep killing it.

[gstillson]

And now a shutdown has been averted which will cause a relief rally tomorrow and I will make another $2000 on Gilead.

You couldn't write a movie script about this stuff...nobody would believe it.

Oh, I forgot to mention I bought 1000 shares at $63.97 near end of day.

...excuse me, have to look up this hubris word and see what it means...

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by gstillson And now a shutdown has been averted which will cause a relief rally tomorrow and I will make another $2000 on Gilead. You couldn't write a movie script about this stuff...nobody would believe it. Oh, I forgot to mention I bought 1000 shares at $63.97 near end of day. ...excuse me, have to look up this hubris word and see what it means...

I don’t know. Futures are not looking so good right now.......

[hotwired]

Keep in mind EVERYTHING is market timing to some degree. I think it behooves us to stay away from that label because the minute it gets attached to an action, that action suddenly becomes radioactive (like being short like the original poster was, which was a VERY prudent move, with a MORE acceptable risk reward scenario than being long, by far)

DCA is market timing. Rebalancing is market timing. Investing a lump sum all at once is market timing. Spreading it out is market timing (all to some degree). But I think it's prudent to overweight or underweight based on historical valuations.

[gstillson]

My trading finally caught up with me a little bit as I am now stuck with a unrealized loss of a couple thousand bucks in Celgene and Gilead. They were just too cheap to pass up at $61.50 and $63

Maybe can get some sort of small Santa rally later this week?

[Lsbcal]

Quote:

Originally Posted by gstillson My trading finally caught up with me a little bit as I am now stuck with a unrealized loss of a couple thousand bucks in Celgene and Gilead. They were just too cheap to pass up at $61.50 and $63 Maybe can get some sort of small Santa rally later this week?

I put in a special request in your honor with that Santa dude for after Xmas:

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by gstillson My trading finally caught up with me a little bit as I am now stuck with a unrealized loss of a couple thousand bucks in Celgene and Gilead. They were just too cheap to pass up at $61.50 and $63 Maybe can get some sort of small Santa rally later this week?

I've done some of these plays in the past. And it is a lot of fun to take some small % (though decent $ amount), sometimes several times a day. You find yourself singing that song 'This ain't workin', That's the way ya do it, Money for nothing...' (I never did get the 'chicks for free', though ).



But then, it always seemed that eventually, the trading stock would drop, and the drop wiped out most/all/more of the gains. I'd get stuck with a lot of loser, dead-weight stocks, and not enough liquidity to do much trading (with the amount that I limited myself to for this). I decided to stop, but it is fun while it goes your way.

Good luck!

-ERD50

[OldShooter]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ERD50 ... I decided to stop, but it is fun while it goes your way. ...

Yup. BTDT.

In "Your Money and Your Brain" Jason Zweig explains this. It turns out that when we have an unexpected gambling "win" our brain gives itself a dopamine shot. The brain learns to anticipate situations where a "win" might occur and actually releases some dopamine in anticipation, encouraging the gamble.

If no "win" occurs, we don't get a dopamine shot. So that basically keeps us looking for those "wins" and those dopamine rewards.

We don't have as much free will as we think we do.

[ERD50]

Quote:

Originally Posted by OldShooter Yup. BTDT. In "Your Money and Your Brain" Jason Zweig explains this. It turns out that when we have an unexpected gambling "win" our brain gives itself a dopamine shot. The brain learns to anticipate situations where a "win" might occur and actually releases some dopamine in anticipation, encouraging the gamble. If no "win" occurs, we don't get a dopamine shot. So that basically keeps us looking for those "wins" and those dopamine rewards. We don't have as much free will as we think we do.

It was also interesting to note, that Celgene and Gilead really only dropped about as much as the overall market, it wasn't some out-sized swing.

EZ come, EZ go.

-ERD50

[gstillson]

I actually feel pretty good about Gilead. It is at the bottom of a 5 year range and essentially is back to where it was before they bought Pharmasset. They have some 27 billion in cash on hand with a market cap of around 85 billion and a pretty high dividend now of 3.7% or something around there.

Not AT&T high dividend but then again they are not in debt up to their eyeballs like T is.

Celgene is a bit of a stinker, I only bought it cause I thought it might bounce. I should have just bought double in Gilead.

[Koolau]

Full disclosure - I haven't even checked my port in the last few months. I do have some stock from my old company that I check once in a while. It's down a good chunk in the latest sell off but WAY above what I "paid" for it (a form of employee compensation from back in the day). In short, I have about a 30% or so (heh, heh, probably less now) commitment to stock in my total investible portfolio. I rarely do anything with it. Maybe tweak it every 3 or 4 years (I think I have now been 'tweaked').

But what I wanted to comment on was the thread title. "Beyond this land, there be dragons." This phrase was uttered in the TV miniseries FARGO. Billie Bob Thornton played a (somewhat) likable character (a stone killer, probably sociopath, but let's not call names, here.) To warn off a police officer who had pulled him over (BBT was driving a stolen car at the time) this phrase was used - and it was delivered so well that it worked. Returning you now to tonight's scheduled subject. May your 2019 performance in the stock market be awesome. Of course, YMMV.

[NYEXPAT]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Koolau Full disclosure - I haven't even checked my port in the last few months. I do have some stock from my old company that I check once in a while. It's down a good chunk in the latest sell off but WAY above what I "paid" for it (a form of employee compensation from back in the day). In short, I have about a 30% or so (heh, heh, probably less now) commitment to stock in my total investible portfolio. I rarely do anything with it. Maybe tweak it every 3 or 4 years (I think I have now been 'tweaked'). But what I wanted to comment on was the thread title. "Beyond this land, there be dragons." This phrase was uttered in the TV miniseries FARGO. Billie Bob Thornton played a (somewhat) likable character (a stone killer, probably sociopath, but let's not call names, here.) To warn off a police officer who had pulled him over (BBT was driving a stolen car at the time) this phrase was used - and it was delivered so well that it worked. Returning you now to tonight's scheduled subject. May your 2019 performance in the stock market be awesome. Of course, YMMV.

BBT used very different phrasing to say essentially the same thing. But since we passed below 2600 we can see the Dragons clearly now and they are called "support/resistance levels"!

[Koolau]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NYEXPAT BBT used very different phrasing to say essentially the same thing. But since we passed below 2600 we can see the Dragons clearly now and they are called "support/resistance levels"!

Here's the exact scene - I haven't watched it for a while. Always gives me the creeps - in a good BBT way!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-Dp...&frags=pl%2Cwn

Sorry for the interruption to a serious discussion - a little BBT "levity" seemed like a nice distraction - or not. YMMV

[Lsbcal]

I looked at the width of the "V" in 3 past SP500 declines not associated with a recession, i.e. the time to get back to past market highs. The data:

Quote:

1962..... -26% 14 months 1987..... -32% 8 months 1998..... -18% 5 months current.. -20%

Have decided to go to sleep for the next year.

P.S. this was posted in another thread but maybe more appropriate to this thread.

[imoldernu]

An older link that puts together the major things that happen to the economy in a downturn. Simple, but a reminder of the pieces.

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/3...n-a-recession/