Bird watching - Black Swans

[NW-Bound]

Giant grasshoppers would not be a black swan.

They were reported in 1937, and were hunted with shotguns, not run over with bicycles.

 

[Just_Steve]

Giant grasshoppers would not be a black swan.

They were reported in 1937, and were hunted with shotguns, not with bicycles.

Mmm, good eating.

 

[4legsgood]

West coast states secede, forming 5th biggest economy in the world...

 

[NW-Bound]

Mmm, good eating.

Tastes like shrimp, but with green juice.

 

[Walt34]

Giant grasshoppers would not be a black swan.

They were reported in 1937, and were hunted with shotguns, not run over with bicycles.

I hate to break yer bubble, but that was an early version of photoshopping. An obvious sign is that while the light is coming from the right, there is no shadow of the grasshopper. And grasshoppers just don't get that big.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/enormous-grasshopper-montana/

 

[marko]

That Black Death killed half the people in Europe. If it happened once is it a black swan?

Asteroids have hit earth before as well, but a repeat wouldn't disqualify it from a Black Swan IMO. Disease wiped out 90% of the Native American population in the 1500-1600's which did in fact collapse an entire economy.

To me, Black Swans are not about a repeat but more about never having seen it coming.

 

[NW-Bound]

I hate to break yer bubble, but that was an early version of photoshopping. An obvious sign is that while the light is coming from the right, there is no shadow of the grasshopper. And grasshoppers just don't get that big.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/enormous-grasshopper-montana/

Was I in a bubble?

 

[brucethebroker]

When the two black swans known to man finally meet, mate, and reproduce like rabbits. Soon, everyone sees black swans everywhere. "Sell, sell, sell", many cry out. "The sky is falling" say others. "Wolf, wolf", cries the young boy.

 

[4legsgood]

...
To me, Black Swans are not about a repeat but more about never having seen it coming.

I think there is some super strict definition done by the authoring academic, but I also prefer a more 'loosey goosey' definition.

I'd like to mention that in keeping with the strict definition, a black swan event -can- be something with a positive outcome.

 

[NW-Bound]

OK, so no giant man-eating grasshoppers.

How 'bout the US being overrun by rats? Hundreds of billions of them.

People have no place to hide from them. Hunting them on the road with your car? Hah! The streets are already slick with their blood and carcasses that car skidding causes numerous accidents.

Skittish women are afraid to leave their home. Firemen, policemen, and volunteers have to deliver food to people who lock themselves in.

 

[atmsmshr]

Millennial wake up and realize work is a trap and all retire early.

Social Security collapses.

 

[NW-Bound]

 

[4legsgood]

Millennial wake up and realize work is a trap and all retire early.

Social Security collapses.

Shhhhhhhh!

 

[Bestwifeever]

Amazon goes into health insurance and the online pharmacy business.

 

[4legsgood]

What if they discover some pharmaceutical that extends a human life for 20 years? All the actuarial tables smashed to smithereens. All that time spent running scenarios on firecalc wasted.

 

[Newventurer]

What if they discover some pharmaceutical that extends a human life for 20 years? All the actuarial tables smashed to smithereens. All that time spent running scenarios on firecalc wasted.

Buy stock in companies that manufacture shuffleboard equipment and Depends

 

[NW-Bound]

A new corn disease proves resistant to all treatments known to man. Entire corn production of the US is wiped out. The public outcry of lack of corn syrup for soda and corn starch for various processed food is deafening. While some experts say that this is a blessing in disguise to cure Americans if not the entire world of obesity, other more solemn scholars point to severe food shortage to come.

Indeed, there are already articles placing blame on various factors. While some say that monoculture is the problem, Monsanto says that its effort to create new GMO, if not hampered, could have avoided the problem. There are cries of "I told you so" coming from all sides. The public does not know whom to believe, while noting that food costs have increased three-fold, and supermarket shelves are no longer fully stocked.

People reminisce of the Irish potato blight, and lament that this time there's no new world to emigrate to.

 

[Newventurer]

A new corn disease proves resistant to all treatments known to man. Entire corn production of the US is wiped out. The public outcry of lack of corn syrup for soda and corn starch for various processed food is deafening. While some experts say that this is a blessing in disguise to cure Americans if not the entire world of obesity, other more solemn scholars point to severe food shortage to come.

Indeed, there are already articles placing blame on various factors. While some say that monoculture is the problem, Monsanto says that its effort to create new GMO, if not hampered, could have avoided the problem. There are cries of "I told you so" coming from all sides. The public does not know whom to believe, while noting that food costs have increased three-fold, and supermarket shelves are no longer fully stocked.

People reminisce of the Irish potato blight, and lament that this time there's no new world to emigrate to.

The bees died

 

[NW-Bound]

The bees died

Corn, wheat, and rice do not need insects for pollination; they rely on the wind.

 

[Newventurer]

Corn, wheat, and rice do not need insects for pollination; they rely on the wind.

The wind broke

 

[RobLJ]

I read once that there is a huge dormant volcano in Wyoming and that if it ever became active and blew, it would make a large part of the USA uninhabitable for quite some time.

Yellowstone sits on a yuge pool of bubbling. . . . lava, not crude, right close to the surface. Last big (caldera) explosion was about 650,000 years ago, with such events typically happening between 600,000-800,000 year intervals (YMMV). If the big one occurs, you can kiss off most of the US.

Cheers!

https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/yellowstone/yellowstone_sub_page_54.html

 

[NW-Bound]

Ugh! Maybe I should look into claiming SS ASAP.

Then, I read this "Fortunately, the Yellowstone volcanic system shows no signs that it is headed toward such an eruption. The probability of a large caldera-forming eruption within the next few thousand years is exceedingly low."

Phew!

 

[RobLJ]

OPTIMIST! Have you run that through FireCalc?

Ugh! Maybe I should look into claiming SS ASAP.

Then, I read this "Fortunately, the Yellowstone volcanic system shows no signs that it is headed toward such an eruption. The probability of a large caldera-forming eruption within the next few thousand years is exceedingly low."

Phew!

 

[NW-Bound]

Hey, thanks for the reminder.

I just went to FIRECalc, and put in 1000 years for the retirement period. The result is kind of weird!

It will not let me enter 10,000 years, but 9,999 years is OK. Result also weird. Try that to see for yourself.

I finally try 100 years. It says I will be rich with my low WR, but still not a billionaire after 100 years. See concurrent thread on billionaires.

How disappointing! I need to tweak my AA a bit here.

PS. Oh wait! FIRECalc deals in today's dollars. With inflation, I am sure I will be a billionaire in 100 years.

 

[RobLJ]

On the other hand--if the caldera does happen to blow in 20 years rather than 20000--you might be worth nothing.
On the other hand, dead is dead and you cain't take it with ya.
(Or to paraphrase Tolstoy badly, 6' is all the real estate a man needs.)