Sunset
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Alien space craft appear.
All major religions collapse.
Aliens are hungry...
All major religions collapse.
Aliens are hungry...
Alien space craft appear.
All major religions collapse.
Aliens are hungry...
A Black Swan event is apparently unknowable and therefore likely unhedged, thus very impactful.
Just for fun - what Black Swan event can you conjure up that would take this Bull down?
As an example - the orbiting Elan Musk Tesla somehow falls out of orbit and crashes into the International Space station creating an international crisis.
A Black Swan event is apparently unknowable and therefore likely unhedged, thus very impactful.
Just for fun - what Black Swan event can you conjure up that would take this Bull down?
As an example - the orbiting Elan Musk Tesla somehow falls out of orbit and crashes into the International Space station creating an international crisis.
PS. Oh wait! FIRECalc deals in today's dollars. With inflation, I am sure I will be a billionaire in 100 years.
As he obviously notes it is the looking of an explanation for the event to make the unpredictable predictable. This is the looking of an explanation to go along with a precipitous event, such as the fall of the Roman Empire or the sudden collapse of civilization of the Bronze age. The result is a human need to assign a "reason" to the sudden change, when in reality it was a society based on growth and when growth is no longer possible and there comes a collapse and a previously easily fended issue becomes fatal.If it has already happened and people know about it (earthquakes, grasshoppers, cyber attacks, plagues) it is not a black swan. If it has already happened in recent history , say the last 500 years, you can estimate when and how it will happen again.
Taleb writes:
an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact…. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
*****
So you really need to be thinking much bigger. What has never happened or not happened in the last few hundred years.
I've seen lots of black swans. They even had cygnets!
PS. Oh wait! FIRECalc deals in today's dollars. With inflation, I am sure I will be a billionaire in 100 years.
And due to inflation effects, you'll still get an ACA subsidy.
"G'day sheila, you've been to Perth."
No, there was a big happy family living at an RV park in Kerrville Texas.
The trade war will do it.
Yep. 1st world counties are doomed!The globalist are already wiping out the working class in the 1st world counties around the world.
Yep. 1st world counties are doomed!
How 'bout this as thin ice?
MJ becomes so popular and widespread in North America, that people grow it in home gardens, windows planters, along sidewalks, and public places. Everybody uses it, from children to grandmas, blue collar workers to corporation CEOs and congressmen. Crime rate does go down a bit, as MJ proponents love to point out. The side effect is people are so chilled out, the economy slows down noticeably. Doctors and nurses abandon their work, policemen and firemen call in sick. Teachers chill out with students, and give everyone passing grades. Politicians stop fighting, and embrace each other. "We are all happy together as a big family", Congress majority and minority leaders declare on the steps of the Capitol, while lighting up each other toke for the photo op.
The only workers still gunho are immigrants, and they slowly acquire the assets of the natives, and the latter just do not care. "I have all the MJ I want, and everything else does not matter", they say.
How 'bout this as thin ice?
MJ becomes so popular and widespread in North America, that people grow it in home gardens, windows planters, along sidewalks, and public places. Everybody uses it, from children to grandmas, blue collar workers to corporation CEOs and congressmen. Crime rate does go down a bit, as MJ proponents love to point out. The side effect is people are so chilled out, the economy slows down noticeably. Doctors and nurses abandon their work, policemen and firemen call in sick. Teachers chill out with students, and give everyone passing grades. Politicians stop fighting, and embrace each other. "We are all happy together as a big family", Congress majority and minority leaders declare on the steps of the Capitol, while lighting up each other toke for the photo op.
The only workers still gunho are immigrants, and they slowly acquire the assets of the natives, and the latter just do not care. "I have all the MJ I want, and everything else does not matter", they say.