Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 03-13-2018, 01:09 PM   #81
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,882
Quote:
Originally Posted by Newventurer View Post
A Black Swan event is apparently unknowable and therefore likely unhedged, thus very impactful.

Just for fun - what Black Swan event can you conjure up that would take this Bull down?

As an example - the orbiting Elan Musk Tesla somehow falls out of orbit and crashes into the International Space station creating an international crisis.
The drop happens and then the cause is assigned, this is what makes the black swan "cause" of the end of the bull market unknown, it is like news musical chairs. The market is not after "revenge" of some event, Mr Market will eventually enact a reckoning on overbullishness.
__________________

Running_Man is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 03-13-2018, 02:14 PM   #82
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 1,780
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
PS. Oh wait! FIRECalc deals in today's dollars. With inflation, I am sure I will be a billionaire in 100 years.
And due to inflation effects, you'll still get an ACA subsidy.
__________________

__________________
Old enough to know better.
joeea is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-13-2018, 05:08 PM   #83
Recycles dryer sheets
Blueskies123's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Miami
Posts: 232
If it has already happened and people know about it (earthquakes, grasshoppers, cyber attacks, plagues) it is not a black swan. If it has already happened in recent history , say the last 500 years, you can estimate when and how it will happen again.
Taleb writes:
an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact…. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
*****
So you really need to be thinking much bigger. What has never happened or not happened in the last few hundred years.



__________________
FIRE July 2015
Blueskies123 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-13-2018, 05:45 PM   #84
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,882
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blueskies123 View Post
If it has already happened and people know about it (earthquakes, grasshoppers, cyber attacks, plagues) it is not a black swan. If it has already happened in recent history , say the last 500 years, you can estimate when and how it will happen again.
Taleb writes:
an event with the following three attributes. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact…. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
*****
So you really need to be thinking much bigger. What has never happened or not happened in the last few hundred years.



As he obviously notes it is the looking of an explanation for the event to make the unpredictable predictable. This is the looking of an explanation to go along with a precipitous event, such as the fall of the Roman Empire or the sudden collapse of civilization of the Bronze age. The result is a human need to assign a "reason" to the sudden change, when in reality it was a society based on growth and when growth is no longer possible and there comes a collapse and a previously easily fended issue becomes fatal.
Running_Man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-13-2018, 05:49 PM   #85
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 20,171
What about the great magnetic pole inversion? I hear it’s imminent!
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-13-2018, 05:54 PM   #86
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 20,171
I've seen lots of black swans. They even had cygnets!
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-13-2018, 06:07 PM   #87
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Nemo2's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Belleville, ONT
Posts: 5,346
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
I've seen lots of black swans. They even had cygnets!
"G'day sheila, you've been to Perth."
__________________
"Exit, pursued by a bear."

The Winter's Tale, William Shakespeare
Nemo2 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-13-2018, 06:11 PM   #88
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 22,263
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
PS. Oh wait! FIRECalc deals in today's dollars. With inflation, I am sure I will be a billionaire in 100 years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by joeea View Post
And due to inflation effects, you'll still get an ACA subsidy.
All right!

With healthcare costs outrunning inflation, in 100 years the premium is going to be $100 billion a year. But the cost to keep a 162-year-old alive is enormous, so how does one complain?

PS. What was I talking about? I will be on Medicare. In 3 years, as well as 100 years from now.
__________________
"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-13-2018, 07:02 PM   #89
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
HFWR's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Lawn chair in Texas
Posts: 13,451
Doris Day becomes popular again...
__________________
Have Funds, Will Retire

...not doing anything of true substance...
HFWR is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-13-2018, 08:25 PM   #90
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 20,171
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nemo2 View Post
"G'day sheila, you've been to Perth."
No, there was a big happy family living at an RV park in Kerrville Texas.
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
audreyh1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-13-2018, 08:31 PM   #91
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Nemo2's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Belleville, ONT
Posts: 5,346
Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
No, there was a big happy family living at an RV park in Kerrville Texas.
Did you check their documentation?
__________________
"Exit, pursued by a bear."

The Winter's Tale, William Shakespeare
Nemo2 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-14-2018, 04:50 AM   #92
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 250
Quote:
Originally Posted by Meadbh View Post
The trade war will do it.
The globalist are already wiping out the working class in the 1st world counties around the world.
alaska55 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-14-2018, 05:05 AM   #93
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 4,359
Quote:
Originally Posted by alaska55 View Post
The globalist are already wiping out the working class in the 1st world counties around the world.
Yep. 1st world counties are doomed!
target2019 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-14-2018, 08:52 AM   #94
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 250
Quote:
Originally Posted by target2019 View Post
Yep. 1st world counties are doomed!
That's not what said.
alaska55 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-14-2018, 09:04 AM   #95
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 250
About the same time when a lot of good paying blue collar jobs started leaving the US, what jobs were left the wages just flat lined. That is due to more people chasing less decent jobs. At the same time CEOs's and upper management pay started to skyrocket.
They just keep chasing low wages, China pay starts going up,they move to Vietnam, and so it goes on.
alaska55 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-14-2018, 09:31 AM   #96
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Chuckanut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 7,913
One bird I am watching is actually a flock of birds.

Basically, I believe that our economy is a feedback loop and all the birds are flying around the circle in formation. People are employed and earn money, they demand goods and services , capital is used to make more goods and service, people are employed and make money. The circle starts again.

Working people ( the middle class mostly) are not going to demand more goods and services if they don't hae the money to pay for them. Those with capital to invest are not going to build a factory to make more widgets if nobody will buy them.

It's a feedback loop. And yes, it is more complicated than my simple explanation.

My concern is that our system is focusing too much on the capital part which supplies goods and services (not that it is unimportant) and not enough on the demand part.

The point is that if a few birds leave the circle for whatever reason, the circle either gets smaller (not good for growth) or it may collapse all together.

Are we there yet? I don't think so, but I do wish the recent tax overhaul would have given a bit more the the middle class and a bit less to the corporations. I am also concerned that the new trade policies may force a few birds to leave. Time will tell.
__________________
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
Chuckanut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-14-2018, 09:49 AM   #97
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 709
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
How 'bout this as thin ice?

MJ becomes so popular and widespread in North America, that people grow it in home gardens, windows planters, along sidewalks, and public places. Everybody uses it, from children to grandmas, blue collar workers to corporation CEOs and congressmen. Crime rate does go down a bit, as MJ proponents love to point out. The side effect is people are so chilled out, the economy slows down noticeably. Doctors and nurses abandon their work, policemen and firemen call in sick. Teachers chill out with students, and give everyone passing grades. Politicians stop fighting, and embrace each other. "We are all happy together as a big family", Congress majority and minority leaders declare on the steps of the Capitol, while lighting up each other toke for the photo op.

The only workers still gunho are immigrants, and they slowly acquire the assets of the natives, and the latter just do not care. "I have all the MJ I want, and everything else does not matter", they say.
Isn't this already happening? Well, except for the politician stuff.
copyright1997reloaded is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-14-2018, 11:07 AM   #98
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Sunset's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Spending the Kids Inheritance and living in Chicago
Posts: 5,903
Quote:
Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
How 'bout this as thin ice?

MJ becomes so popular and widespread in North America, that people grow it in home gardens, windows planters, along sidewalks, and public places. Everybody uses it, from children to grandmas, blue collar workers to corporation CEOs and congressmen. Crime rate does go down a bit, as MJ proponents love to point out. The side effect is people are so chilled out, the economy slows down noticeably. Doctors and nurses abandon their work, policemen and firemen call in sick. Teachers chill out with students, and give everyone passing grades. Politicians stop fighting, and embrace each other. "We are all happy together as a big family", Congress majority and minority leaders declare on the steps of the Capitol, while lighting up each other toke for the photo op.

The only workers still gunho are immigrants, and they slowly acquire the assets of the natives, and the latter just do not care. "I have all the MJ I want, and everything else does not matter", they say.
I see it with cell phones.
Workers are literally stopping work to check their phones many times a day for many minutes on end.
Shoppers will stop in the aisle to gaze at their phone, even when grocery shopping.
Car drivers sit at green lights, or drive slowly, making traffic move slower.

All this means less work is getting done, and less shopping in stores, so businesses will not expand, maybe layoff people due to lack of business. Everyone will text each other about the worsening economy, and it will worsen as they read about it.
__________________

__________________
Fortune favors the prepared mind. ... Louis Pasteur
Sunset is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Terminology Funny: Black Monday vs Black Friday 38Chevy454 FIRE and Money 9 08-27-2015 06:39 AM
Larry Swedroe's "Reducing the Risk of Black Swans" kevink FIRE and Money 37 06-29-2015 11:47 AM
It is not about "black swans" it is about leverage and how you plan for it donheff FIRE and Money 8 02-11-2012 11:13 PM
Watching some bird on a nest. Live. calmloki Other topics 6 04-08-2009 06:47 PM
Bird Flu Marshac Other topics 25 08-04-2005 03:42 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:19 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.