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Bird watching - Black Swans
03-07-2018, 05:19 AM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: in the sticks
Posts: 473
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Bird watching - Black Swans
A Black Swan event is apparently unknowable and therefore likely unhedged, thus very impactful.
Just for fun - what Black Swan event can you conjure up that would take this Bull down?
As an example - the orbiting Elan Musk Tesla somehow falls out of orbit and crashes into the International Space station creating an international crisis.
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03-07-2018, 05:26 AM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 11,401
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The trade war will do it.
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03-07-2018, 06:03 AM
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#3
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gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
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War with Canada.
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03-07-2018, 06:15 AM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 11,328
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Nukes in North Korea or Pakistan and India.
__________________
Idleness is fatal only to the mediocre -- Albert Camus
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03-07-2018, 06:22 AM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: Tellico Village
Posts: 2,622
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Quote:
Originally Posted by donheff
Nukes in North Korea or Pakistan and India.
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They all have them already- the bull should have been over years ago....
__________________
Retired May 13th(Friday) 2016 at age 61.
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03-07-2018, 06:23 AM
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#6
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Administrator
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 23,038
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Giant alien spacecraft appear above major world cities, as in the movie Independence Day.
A highly pathogenic form of avian flu becomes easily transmissible among humans, leading to a deadly worldwide pandemic.
An unknown virus kills off all grasses in the world, including corn, wheat, barley, oats and rice. We all starve as a consequence.
__________________
Living an analog life in the Digital Age.
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03-07-2018, 06:25 AM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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Repeal of the Law of Gravity.
__________________
Numbers is hard
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03-07-2018, 06:29 AM
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#8
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Lakewood
Posts: 920
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Sky darkening volcano leading to poisoned, ashy seas and severe crop shortages.
Gov’t debt gets downgraded and treated as junk.
A computer virus worms it’s way across the globe, wiping out electronic records of wealth.
Boy, this is a cheery thread. I’m almost sorry I participated.
__________________
Why be normal when you can be yourself?
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03-07-2018, 06:51 AM
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#9
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,714
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The one ring is reforged, Sauron rises from the ashes of Mt Doom and takes over the world because there are no more Hobbits for a new quest.
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03-07-2018, 06:59 AM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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Sexually active grasshoppers experience a population explosion and take revenge on serial murderer bicyclists.
__________________
Numbers is hard
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03-07-2018, 07:00 AM
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#11
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 2,985
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Since it is unknowable I don't know.
__________________
Took SS at 62 and hope I live long enough to regret the decision.
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Direct from Amazon: sunglasses for your cell phone
03-07-2018, 07:09 AM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: The Shire
Posts: 1,504
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Direct from Amazon: sunglasses for your cell phone
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB
The one ring is reforged, Sauron rises from the ashes of Mt Doom and takes over the world because there are no more Hobbits for a new quest.
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I'll take the ring and dispose of it. You can trust me...
...NOT! To be absolutely honest, if you gave me limitless power I'd be abusing it left and right. And I'm a nice person. Now imagine what bad people do when they gain power.
Back on topic: My suggestion for Black Swan event is a solar EMP that fries every electronic device on the planet.
__________________
Paying it forward is the best investment.
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03-07-2018, 07:13 AM
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#13
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 645
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB
The one ring is reforged, Sauron rises from the ashes of Mt Doom and takes over the world because there are no more Hobbits for a new quest.
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+100
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03-07-2018, 07:24 AM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: Cholula
Posts: 1,595
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Life imitates art in the movie, "A Day Without A Mexican" when a mysterious fog surrounds the boundaries of the Unites States. All the Mexicans have disappeared bringing the nation's economy to its knees.
__________________
“Before you criticize someone, walk a mile in their shoes. That way, you’ll be a mile from them, and you’ll have their shoes.” – Jack Handey
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03-07-2018, 07:31 AM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: On a hill in the Pine Barrens
Posts: 9,720
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
Quote:
1. The event is a surprise (to the observer).
2. The event has a major effect.
3. After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the personal perception by individuals.
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Cryptocurrency collapse - Now that I told you, it will not be a surprise!
WW III - That fits the criteria, I believe. Maybe we'll have just one WW in this century.
Meteor impact - That will happen.
Take your pick!
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03-07-2018, 07:39 AM
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#16
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 645
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I think the EMP is good start, but many large utilities have a plan in place to get a start on repairing the grid. I think the real Black Swan will be the aftermath of the EMP, all of the millennials and younger who are totally lost when told to look something up, and they don't know how to use a library!
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03-07-2018, 07:52 AM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 10,252
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Newventurer
A Black Swan event is apparently unknowable and therefore likely unhedged, thus very impactful.
Just for fun - what Black Swan event can you conjure up that would take this Bull down?
As an example - the orbiting Elan Musk Tesla somehow falls out of orbit and crashes into the International Space station creating an international crisis.
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Your example threw me off since it would cause equities to go up since the ISS is a boondoggle of almost no value to humanity.
But in the same vein, the Chinese Tiangong-1 space station crashes into the White House or U.S. Capitol Building. Then again, stocks might go up.
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03-07-2018, 08:07 AM
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#18
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 215
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__________________
DH retired 2014.
Sold my business in '16 and retired 5-17!
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03-07-2018, 08:49 AM
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#19
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 74
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03-07-2018, 08:52 AM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 17,263
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Oprah Winfrey announces she is running for President in 2020 - as a Libertarian.
__________________
Comparison is the thief of joy
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
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