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Bird watching - Black Swans
Old 03-07-2018, 06:19 AM   #1
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Bird watching - Black Swans

A Black Swan event is apparently unknowable and therefore likely unhedged, thus very impactful.

Just for fun - what Black Swan event can you conjure up that would take this Bull down?

As an example - the orbiting Elan Musk Tesla somehow falls out of orbit and crashes into the International Space station creating an international crisis.
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Old 03-07-2018, 06:26 AM   #2
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The trade war will do it.
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Old 03-07-2018, 07:03 AM   #3
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War with Canada.
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Old 03-07-2018, 07:15 AM   #4
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Nukes in North Korea or Pakistan and India.
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Old 03-07-2018, 07:22 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by donheff View Post
Nukes in North Korea or Pakistan and India.
They all have them already- the bull should have been over years ago....
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Old 03-07-2018, 07:23 AM   #6
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Giant alien spacecraft appear above major world cities, as in the movie Independence Day.

A highly pathogenic form of avian flu becomes easily transmissible among humans, leading to a deadly worldwide pandemic.

An unknown virus kills off all grasses in the world, including corn, wheat, barley, oats and rice. We all starve as a consequence.
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Old 03-07-2018, 07:25 AM   #7
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Old 03-07-2018, 07:29 AM   #8
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Sky darkening volcano leading to poisoned, ashy seas and severe crop shortages.

Gov’t debt gets downgraded and treated as junk.

A computer virus worms it’s way across the globe, wiping out electronic records of wealth.

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Old 03-07-2018, 07:51 AM   #9
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The one ring is reforged, Sauron rises from the ashes of Mt Doom and takes over the world because there are no more Hobbits for a new quest.
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Old 03-07-2018, 07:59 AM   #10
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Sexually active grasshoppers experience a population explosion and take revenge on serial murderer bicyclists.
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Old 03-07-2018, 08:00 AM   #11
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Since it is unknowable I don't know.
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Old 03-07-2018, 08:09 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
The one ring is reforged, Sauron rises from the ashes of Mt Doom and takes over the world because there are no more Hobbits for a new quest.
I'll take the ring and dispose of it. You can trust me...

...NOT! To be absolutely honest, if you gave me limitless power I'd be abusing it left and right. And I'm a nice person. Now imagine what bad people do when they gain power.


Back on topic: My suggestion for Black Swan event is a solar EMP that fries every electronic device on the planet.
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Old 03-07-2018, 08:13 AM   #13
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The one ring is reforged, Sauron rises from the ashes of Mt Doom and takes over the world because there are no more Hobbits for a new quest.


+100
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Old 03-07-2018, 08:24 AM   #14
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Life imitates art in the movie, "A Day Without A Mexican" when a mysterious fog surrounds the boundaries of the Unites States. All the Mexicans have disappeared bringing the nation's economy to its knees.
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Old 03-07-2018, 08:31 AM   #15
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

Quote:
1. The event is a surprise (to the observer).
2. The event has a major effect.
3. After the first recorded instance of the event, it is rationalized by hindsight, as if it could have been expected; that is, the relevant data were available but unaccounted for in risk mitigation programs. The same is true for the personal perception by individuals.
Cryptocurrency collapse - Now that I told you, it will not be a surprise!

WW III - That fits the criteria, I believe. Maybe we'll have just one WW in this century.

Meteor impact - That will happen.

Take your pick!
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Old 03-07-2018, 08:39 AM   #16
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I think the EMP is good start, but many large utilities have a plan in place to get a start on repairing the grid. I think the real Black Swan will be the aftermath of the EMP, all of the millennials and younger who are totally lost when told to look something up, and they don't know how to use a library!
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Old 03-07-2018, 08:52 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by Newventurer View Post
A Black Swan event is apparently unknowable and therefore likely unhedged, thus very impactful.

Just for fun - what Black Swan event can you conjure up that would take this Bull down?

As an example - the orbiting Elan Musk Tesla somehow falls out of orbit and crashes into the International Space station creating an international crisis.
Your example threw me off since it would cause equities to go up since the ISS is a boondoggle of almost no value to humanity.

But in the same vein, the Chinese Tiangong-1 space station crashes into the White House or U.S. Capitol Building. Then again, stocks might go up.
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Old 03-07-2018, 09:07 AM   #18
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This is fun
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Old 03-07-2018, 09:49 AM   #19
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Sexually active grasshoppers experience a population explosion and take revenge on serial murderer bicyclists.


Does this make us bad people?
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Old 03-07-2018, 09:52 AM   #20
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Oprah Winfrey announces she is running for President in 2020 - as a Libertarian.
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