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Old 12-06-2017, 12:52 AM   #21
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Bitcoin will eliminate the need for shipping tons of gold around the world in settlement of government debts. Money does not need a physical presence, it will have all the advantages that paper money gave humans years ago without the fear of a printing press. So I see many advantages and potential uses for bitcoin. Also Jamie Dimon was being disingenuous as bitcoin transaction would potentially eliminate a huge swath of banking fees. In fact it is this issue that is so worrying the banking industry.

The pricing and action of bitcoin has certainly been bubble like, and could yet turn out to be a bubble if bitcoin never achieves acceptance as a currency, but due to the very finite nature of bitcoins this is not like other manias, if bitcoin ever gains favor as a currency.

However James Altchuter who has extraordinary long term vision and whose opinions I respect very much is a huge bitcoin fan and sees valuations going into the trillions of US dollars, which at this point is only a 10X increase. He is also not worried about 80 percent intermediate term declines as bitcoin has seen that before, that is a bit volatile for my tastes.

Gold is not shipped around the world... all that happens is that they move some from one vault to another in NYC....

https://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/goldvault.html
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Old 12-06-2017, 11:13 AM   #22
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Gold is not shipped around the world... all that happens is that they move some from one vault to another in NYC....

https://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/goldvault.html
Germany had 300 tons shipped this year

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...-york/1840731/

China is building a 1,500 ton gold vault on mainline China
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ors-seek-haven
China is buying a gold vault in London that hold 2,000 tons
China to buy $90 billion gold vault in London - May. 16, 2016

China produces 458 tons of gold a year and directly imports 1,158 tons of physical gold per year or about 20% of the amount of gold held in the vaults of the FED, which is merely a holder of convienence for Central Banks. Gold of course historically flows to countries that have the biggest share of world income, used to be United States which is why US dollar was reserve currency, China is in the midst of taking over that role
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Old 12-06-2017, 06:19 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by Running_Man View Post
Bitcoin will eliminate the need for shipping tons of gold around the world in settlement of government debts. Money does not need a physical presence, it will have all the advantages that paper money gave humans years ago without the fear of a printing press. So I see many advantages and potential uses for bitcoin. Also Jamie Dimon was being disingenuous as bitcoin transaction would potentially eliminate a huge swath of banking fees. In fact it is this issue that is so worrying the banking industry.

The pricing and action of bitcoin has certainly been bubble like, and could yet turn out to be a bubble if bitcoin never achieves acceptance as a currency, but due to the very finite nature of bitcoins this is not like other manias, if bitcoin ever gains favor as a currency.

However James Altchuter who has extraordinary long term vision and whose opinions I respect very much is a huge bitcoin fan and sees valuations going into the trillions of US dollars, which at this point is only a 10X increase. He is also not worried about 80 percent intermediate term declines as bitcoin has seen that before, that is a bit volatile for my tastes.
You may well be correct. Still. I cannot see governments that tolerate no resistance to their absolute power over individuals standing for much of this, once it begins to appear that the King is not in absolute control. The state doesn't stop at murder, why stop at something like this? Again, if/when it cuts. Re; Altucher, maybe is a guru, but it doesn't appear that away to me. To me, he is just a weird guy with really bad hair.

Ha
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Old 12-06-2017, 06:26 PM   #24
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The real value is the total market capital divided by the supply. I don't think BitCoin will come close to this value, but if it did essentially become as valuable as gold (supply/demand), then a single bitcoin would be worth $331,000.
As far as I can tell, there's nothing to prevent the supply of cryptocurrency from expanding geometrically without bounds. Maybe people will want to pay more for bitcoins forever, maybe not.

You pays yer bitcoins and you takes yer chances.
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Old 12-06-2017, 06:33 PM   #25
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However James Altchuter who has extraordinary long term vision and whose opinions I respect very much is a huge bitcoin fan and sees valuations going into the trillions of US dollars, which at this point is only a 10X increase. He is also not worried about 80 percent intermediate term declines as bitcoin has seen that before, that is a bit volatile for my tastes.
This is the same James Altucher who lost $15 million on internet investments in two years, right?
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Old 12-06-2017, 06:37 PM   #26
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Sold 100% of my Crypto today. Waiting on the CBOE Futures determination, it could make Bitcoin go up in the short term but also maybe finally burst the bubble. Just thoughts for the upcoming Dec 10 or so announcement
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Old 12-06-2017, 06:39 PM   #27
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In the article below Larry Swedroe provides a good overview of Bitcoin, what it is and the investment risks entailed. Zweig's article is more generic.

Jazon Zweig's take, Bitcoin, Ignorance and You

"The gravity-defying rise of bitcoin has been drawing in new money from people who appear to know nothing about the cryptocurrency other than the fact that its price has gone up a lot in a hurry."

Larry Swedroe's take, Bitcoin: Investment or Bubble?

"To start, letís agree that the blockchain technology behind bitcoin is a game-changer, and the technology will play a big role in the future. However, that says nothing about bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency, for many reasons."
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Old 12-06-2017, 07:13 PM   #28
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If your opinion is that governments can shut down crypto currencies, I'd like to understand how they'd do that. They might be able to prevent or de-anonymize conversation to their manipulated fiat currency, but nothing stopping individuals or foreign organizations from doing what they want, irrespective of what governments want.
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Old 12-06-2017, 09:35 PM   #29
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This is the same James Altucher who lost $15 million on internet investments in two years, right?
Yes the very same, went to bankruptcy and since 2009 has made 20 million dollars back again, starting from zero. He also suffered from depression and had a nervous breakdown. His ideas are compelling to me, his hair is bad. He has a great ability to see chains of events in my review of his work, reccomendations and ability to admit his failings.
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Old 12-06-2017, 11:10 PM   #30
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So very happy that we got in 4 years ago. WE have cashed out some of ours and earned way more then we put in. We are still hanging onto 10 to see what happens.
I am happy for you.
I wish I had done that as well, just because it's nice to win !
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Old 12-06-2017, 11:20 PM   #31
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If your opinion is that governments can shut down crypto currencies, I'd like to understand how they'd do that. They might be able to prevent or de-anonymize conversation to their manipulated fiat currency, but nothing stopping individuals or foreign organizations from doing what they want, irrespective of what governments want.
Besides making anonymity unworkable to convert to "real" cash.

I could see governments making the use of crypto currencies illegal tender for real transactions of exchange, like how using heroin is illegal for purchasing apartment complexes, paying taxes, etc.

Of course folks can still privately exchange illegal currencies, but the translation of currency into real items is often the main use of money, so governments could knock down the value of crypto currencies.
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Old 12-07-2017, 07:01 AM   #32
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Yep, this is bound to end well:

Bitcoin blasts through $15,000 milestone, soars 20% in 24 hours
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File Type: jpg Bitcoin.JPG (35.5 KB, 15 views)
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Old 12-07-2017, 07:16 AM   #33
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Unbelievable the growth of Bitcoin. Simply amazing. But am I going to buy some? No. Not a chance. I don't understand it . At some point it has to readjust to a more reasonable price I would think. But I don't know. I couldn't even begin to answer the question if the growth is sustainable or not.

My guess would be no. Usually by the time an investment is recognized as great, the big money has already been made it seems.
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Old 12-07-2017, 09:30 AM   #34
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Maybe this time it's different and Bitcoins will continue to accelerate in value, meaning now or a year from now I can buy some and be richer in 6 months.
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Bitcoin price
Old 12-07-2017, 09:41 AM   #35
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Bitcoin price

Here is a "classic bubble" chart from this Forbes article. Here is the punch line, the article was written in 2013. So I will say it, Maybe its different this time! My guess is we are at the "enthusiasm" stage on the chart. Bloomberg and Glenn Beck were both talking about Bitcoin this morning. Taxi cab drivers will be giving bitcoin advice in the coming weeks. I think we are quickly moving into the public stage. But, maybe it is different this time. No, really!
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File Type: png stages_bubble.png (149.2 KB, 13 views)
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Old 12-07-2017, 10:00 AM   #36
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$15k this morning.
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Old 12-07-2017, 10:13 AM   #37
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$15k this morning.
I see $16,900! But then my price is 13 minutes later than your price.
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Old 12-07-2017, 10:17 AM   #38
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i see $16,900! But then my price is 13 minutes later than your price.
crazy!
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Old 12-07-2017, 10:18 AM   #39
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I think one of the problems with this bubble is that there probably is not enough volume... so demand is much higher than supply, the price goes up... people that are holding it feel richer...

But, unless these people sell some to book gains they have the possibility of losing it all....

Once it starts to drop in price and people believe it is going down to a reasonable price the supply side will overwhelm the buy side and it will go down as fast as it went up.... maybe faster...
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Old 12-07-2017, 10:18 AM   #40
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Only went from $12k to $17k in two days. Lol.
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