I kinda think the inversion is a result of ETF's. Our last recession and major inversion was in 2008/2009. Etf's were just getting popular.
Now, when equities are tanking, everyone goes looking for "safety" in bonds (namely bond etfs). As money pours into bond etfs, they have no choice but to invest those funds. As the funds buy more bonds, the yield drops and the etf share price goes up..... Then the retail "screeners" see the great 4 week price performance and pile more money into a "safe" bond fund. Eventually, everything reverts to the mean and yields will normalize. The exceptionally low starting point of yields makes it much easier to invert unlike the good old days of 5% on 10s.
IMO, Etfs are driving everything.
But, I could be wrong too....
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