Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Bond Yield Inversion again .. Buying opportunity?
Old 08-14-2019, 11:15 AM   #1
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 768
Bond Yield Inversion again .. Buying opportunity?

So the 2yr-10yr bond yields inverted again today .. an indicator of recession .. but everyone says recession will be in early 2020 and the White House as posponed the latest China tariffs to Dec.2019.

Are you buying the dip today for another equity run to Nov/Dec and then taking it out
__________________

__________________
No to consumerism, Living a simple life, enjoying the experience - not the material stuff
cyber888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 08-14-2019, 12:25 PM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Grapetown
Posts: 1,810
I believe US interest rates are falling due to flood of foreign money pouring into the US. Many foreign countries have negative rates, so the US is only place for a return.
__________________

Winemaker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2019, 12:31 PM   #3
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: Rapid City, SD
Posts: 186
I’ll wait a few months to verify a market downtrend. If I “miss out” on bargains by waiting that long, no loss to me (literally.)
Cessna152 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2019, 01:04 PM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: North
Posts: 2,306
Buying the dip tomorrow. DCA every week baby. Riding the elevator...up, down, sideways...wherever it takes us! Got some buddies and talking heads who have already rotated out of equities. I'm not a sissy though. Imma give it another month or two.
__________________
AA (Stock/Bond/Cash ): 96.5/0/3.5% MIX (Small/Mid/Large): 25/25/50% BLEND(US/Foreign): 100/0%, REIT (Real Estate Equity): ~50% of Assets

FIRE in 2031 @ 50yrs old (+/- 2yrs) w/ a hypothetical $2.5mil portfolio, 3 appreciated homes worth $1.0mil and rental income to fund my gap years until RMD. Assets will go to an inherited IRA where I plan on watching the investments grow until I die or the trust gets executed.
kgtest is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2019, 01:11 PM   #5
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 865
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cessna152 View Post
I’ll wait a few months to verify a market downtrend. If I “miss out” on bargains by waiting that long, no loss to me (literally.)
Thats the modern malfunction: today's markets seem to "flash crash" rather than establish a 'downtrend', and I always move slower than the PPT or algos.
Spock is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2019, 01:26 PM   #6
Recycles dryer sheets
dirtbiker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Posts: 287
I know there's a downturn coming. There has to be. There always is. The question is when. This is always the question. The one very few have the answer to.

I sold some of my growth stocks and my Nasdaq ETF (QQQ) yesterday when everyone was frothing at the mouth to buy. I also haven't been buying much lately; I've been letting my cash contributions sit. I've got more in cash in my accounts than I ever have. I'm staying put in my high dividend blue chips, and will be keeping a lot in cash and invest a bit more in short term bonds. I don't want to get out of the market entirely, so I'm not cashing out completely (though today made yesterday seem like a great day to do it. lol). I'm just keeping my positions in my ETFs and blue chips and keeping cash on hand to invest when the time is right. Most everything seems overvalued to me right now.
dirtbiker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2019, 02:11 PM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 9,757
I think only short-term plays are appropriate here. That is, buy and then sell within a few days. Higher volatility that we have seen in the past week has historically just been a prelude to a lower market in the intermediate term I think.

Be careful. I see no reason not to do one's normal rebalancing though.
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2019, 02:16 PM   #8
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Tampa
Posts: 4,331
No one pure buy and hold anymore? lol
__________________
TGIM
Dtail is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2019, 02:33 PM   #9
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: Topanga
Posts: 55
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirtbiker View Post
I know there's a downturn coming. There has to be. There always is. The question is when. This is always the question. The one very few have the answer to.
Many said the market was overvalued in 2013, 2015, 2016, and 2018
timbervest is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2019, 02:40 PM   #10
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 596
Bought some more Fidelity S&P 500 today..not a huge amount, but still a buy..

Buy low, sell high...could we go lower? Of course. But the algos are running the show nowadays and turning on a dime (or a tweet).
24601NoMore is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2019, 02:49 PM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
SecondCor521's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 3,667
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtail View Post
No one pure buy and hold anymore? lol
I am still LTBH low-cost broad-based index funds. Still at 93/7.

Today's explanation for today's market downturn make little to no sense to me. I have heard the following three things from people who seem to know what they're talking about:

1. Inverted yield curves are not always followed by recessions.
2. When they are, the recessions happen many (many = 9 to 18?) months later.
3. Between the inversion and the recession, the market usually goes up another X% (20%?).

Maybe some or all of the above are not true. Maybe the explanation given to the talking heads from the floor traders and other financial types is inaccurate or deceptive. Maybe I'm missing some logical position which allows both to be correct.

In any case, I still have lazy intent to move my stock allocation higher. If the downtrend grinds on and people start to worry (including me), then I'll reallocate.
__________________
"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
SecondCor521 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2019, 02:52 PM   #12
Recycles dryer sheets
dirtbiker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Posts: 287
Quote:
Originally Posted by timbervest View Post
Many said the market was overvalued in 2013, 2015, 2016, and 2018
Agreed. I may be leaving some money on the table staying in a higher percentage of cash and bonds than I normally do, but I'm hedging against a bear market. If the stock market follows the bulls, I've still got money in stocks, so I'm still making money. If it crashes, I'll suffer some paper losses, but also have some money to invest at a bargain.

I think there's a reason why Warren Buffet is sitting on such a large pile of cash. He can't find any companies to buy at a value right now either.
dirtbiker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2019, 02:53 PM   #13
Recycles dryer sheets
dirtbiker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2019
Posts: 287
Quote:
Originally Posted by SecondCor521 View Post
I am still LTBH low-cost broad-based index funds. Still at 93/7.

Today's explanation for today's market downturn make little to no sense to me. I have heard the following three things from people who seem to know what they're talking about:

1. Inverted yield curves are not always followed by recessions.
2. When they are, the recessions happen many (many = 9 to 18?) months later.
3. Between the inversion and the recession, the market usually goes up another X% (20%?).

Maybe some or all of the above are not true. Maybe the explanation given to the talking heads from the floor traders and other financial types is inaccurate or deceptive. Maybe I'm missing some logical position which allows both to be correct.

In any case, I still have lazy intent to move my stock allocation higher. If the downtrend grinds on and people start to worry (including me), then I'll reallocate.
So it sounds like you have plans to buy high and sell low?
dirtbiker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2019, 02:56 PM   #14
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
target2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 5,306
Quote:
Originally Posted by kgtest View Post
Buying the dip tomorrow. DCA every week baby. Riding the elevator...up, down, sideways...wherever it takes us! Got some buddies and talking heads who have already rotated out of equities. I'm not a sissy though. Imma give it another month or two.
When will it end (when will it end)
Hey! Hey! Hey! Hey!
target2019 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2019, 03:16 PM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
SecondCor521's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 3,667
Quote:
Originally Posted by dirtbiker View Post
So it sounds like you have plans to buy high and sell low?
Of course. You got me. My WR is so low I have to find a way to blow all my dough.
__________________
"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
SecondCor521 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2019, 03:18 PM   #16
Administrator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: lumpen slums of cyberspace
Posts: 30,023
Quote:
Originally Posted by SecondCor521 View Post
My WR is so low I have to find a way to blow all my dough.
Hey, happy to help ...
MichaelB is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2019, 03:58 PM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
NYEXPAT's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Miraflores,Peru
Posts: 1,796
BTFD
Attached Images
File Type: png Clipboard - August 14, 2019 4_27 PM.png (772.5 KB, 36 views)
NYEXPAT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2019, 04:54 PM   #18
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
joeea's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,500
Quote:
Originally Posted by cyber888 View Post
everyone says recession will be in early 2020
Who says that?

Quote:
and the White House as posponed the latest China tariffs to Dec.2019.
Which has nothing to do with inversion or anything else.

Quote:
Are you buying the dip today for another equity run to Nov/Dec and then taking it out
No thanks.
__________________
Old enough to know better.
joeea is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2019, 04:57 PM   #19
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
joeea's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,500
Quote:
Originally Posted by LOL! View Post
That is, buy and then sell within a few days.
Why wait a few days?
__________________
Old enough to know better.
joeea is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2019, 05:07 PM   #20
Full time employment: Posting here.
ESRwannabe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 787
There's nothing for me to do right now. If we get a big drop, I will do some tax loss harvesting though.
__________________

ESRwannabe is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Inversion Table For Lower Back Pain frayne Other topics 35 08-21-2019 02:20 PM
How To Translate A 7 Day Yield Of Of 0.04% To A 1 Year Yield ? ownyourfuture Stock Picking and Market Strategy 16 07-13-2016 10:10 AM
Inversion countdown brewer12345 FIRE and Money 84 04-07-2006 06:02 PM
Another inversion today brewer12345 FIRE and Money 21 01-18-2006 02:54 PM
Yield Curve Inversion Helen FIRE and Money 10 09-12-2005 01:39 PM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 10:41 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
×