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Old 03-12-2012, 10:52 AM   #81
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Companies were pretty terrorized by the 2008 sudden credit crisis that left some of them panicking to cover payroll when short-term revolving credit dried up. This is one big reason why companies are hoarding cash now - to stay independent of the short-term credit/finance markets. They self-finance now for short-term stuff.
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Old 03-12-2012, 10:54 AM   #82
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Excellent chart and commentary. Thanks for posting it.

But I am at a loss about how this could make you bullish. If anything, this is a bearish chart. It does show the power of government manipulation. That is pretty much the only missing link- how long can Li'l Dr Ben keep the balls in the air?

Ha
Ha - since in real dollars the DJIA is currently below its century+ trend midline, that signals it's underpriced, thus I'm bullish. The charts at that site plot only to January, so probably have bumped up a bit with this year's run up, so likely are now not quite as bullish as at year start.
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Old 03-12-2012, 11:36 AM   #83
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Ha - since in real dollars the DJIA is currently below its century+ trend midline, that signals it's underpriced, thus I'm bullish. The charts at that site plot only to January, so probably have bumped up a bit with this year's run up, so likely are now not quite as bullish as at year start.
Thank you for explaining your thinking. I look at the same thing and think-2% real return on average - "I'm going home till things get foolish on the downside." Selling program for me today, though I have to be careful in my taxable accout as I did a Roth conversion in 2010 which is being taxed last year and 2012.

Ha
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Old 03-12-2012, 11:55 AM   #84
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I look at the same thing and think-2% real return on average - "I'm going home till things get foolish on the downside." Selling program for me today, though I have to be careful in my taxable accout as I did a Roth conversion in 2010 which is being taxed last year and 2012.

Ha
Plus dividend. So it's more like 4% real.
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Old 03-12-2012, 01:06 PM   #85
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Plus dividend. So it's more like 4% real.
Yes; I don't dispute that. I just am not attracted by it. Stocks have very very long duration. Unless one is a skilled trader, IMO best to wait for set-ups. They never fail to arrive sooner or later.

Ha
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Old 03-12-2012, 01:30 PM   #86
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Thank you for explaining your thinking. I look at the same thing and think-2% real return on average - "I'm going home till things get foolish on the downside." Selling program for me today, though I have to be careful in my taxable accout as I did a Roth conversion in 2010 which is being taxed last year and 2012.

Ha
The Dow/Gold ratio graph, recently down near its bottom trend line, is IMO also bullish for stocks
http://home.earthlink.net/~intellige...com-dow-au.htm
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Old 03-12-2012, 01:36 PM   #87
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The Dow/Gold ratio graph, recently down near its bottom trend line, is IMO also bullish for stocks
Fred's Intelligent Bear Site - Dow-Gold Ratio
Basically, if you are happy, I am happy.
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Old 03-12-2012, 02:15 PM   #88
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Basically, if you are happy, I am happy.
And I'm happy that you are happy. Of course, med's make me happy.
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Old 03-12-2012, 03:40 PM   #89
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And I'm happy that you are happy. Of course, med's make me happy.
ER is my version of meds! Don't need 'em when I awaken every morning thrilled that I never have to w*rk ever again. I'm happy that you are happy that Ha's happy that GrayHare's happy.
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Old 03-12-2012, 04:51 PM   #90
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This is one big reason why companies are hoarding cash now - to stay independent of the short-term credit/finance markets. They self-finance now for short-term stuff.
What a concept!

Imagine if most businesses ran that way...
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Old 03-12-2012, 05:10 PM   #91
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What a concept!

Imagine if most businesses ran that way...
Well they DO now! 2008 was a rude wake-up call.
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