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Old 08-25-2015, 08:19 PM   #61
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I'll take 13725 as the bottom.

To the question of what's fundamentally broken to drive it down from current levels, it's quite possible we're seeing China go thru something akin to 2008. I'm no expert but they appear to have a massive debt problem and their shadow banking market geniuses found a way to slice and dice that debt thoughout the economy in a similar way that the CDO geniuses did here. China may be going thru something they can't simply buy their way out of (though their forex reserves are staggering).
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Old 08-25-2015, 08:51 PM   #62
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If you are more on conservative side of AA, then wait until the Dow drops to 12,000 or less in order to add to your equities.
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Old 08-27-2015, 07:19 AM   #63
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I went back and looked at the DOW 2015 prediction thread.

There weren't a lot of bears.

My prediction was
"It is time for a pull back..
Dow 16,350
S&P 1910"

So with Dow at 16,385 I am hoping they close the market for the rest of the year so I can win..(Also all the puts I wrote would expire worthless)
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Old 08-27-2015, 08:53 AM   #64
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I predict that we hit the bottom today and there's a decent sized reversal. Not to the point of being up today, but being down significantly less than the 3.7% we are down premarket right now.
I was half right. I said the market would reverse significantly and put in the bottom on 8/24. It did reverse significantly from the gap down at the open, but the gap down was WAY worse than I thought and we ended down a tad more than the 3.7% I quoted which was where the futures were at the time.

I stick with my prediction that the bottom is already in.
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Old 08-27-2015, 08:59 AM   #65
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Still think we will see it lower, expect Fed to raise rates by end of year, china to stop buying its market and etc....
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Old 08-27-2015, 09:40 AM   #66
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I think retests are likely. That was a very sharp V shaped correction. The dust doesn't usually settle right away. We are entering a time when the market tends to have selloffs. I expect more up through about mid October. It doesn't mean it will find a lower bottom, necessarily, just that the recent lows will be likely tested, and whether they hold, or fail, who knows?
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Old 08-27-2015, 10:23 AM   #67
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What about all the people who have not got their August statements in the mail yet? Will that not trigger another leg down in September? Not everyone is on top of their portfolios on a daily basis....
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Old 08-27-2015, 01:54 PM   #68
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I stick with my prediction that the bottom is already in.
+1

I'm surprised at all the Chicken Littles on the board.
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Old 08-27-2015, 01:57 PM   #69
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I think retests are likely. That was a very sharp V shaped correction. The dust doesn't usually settle right away. We are entering a time when the market tends to have selloffs. I expect more up through about mid October. It doesn't mean it will find a lower bottom, necessarily, just that the recent lows will be likely tested, and whether they hold, or fail, who knows?
This seems the most likely scenario. But then again, it might not be.
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Old 08-27-2015, 02:26 PM   #70
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I'm pretty much convinced the big boys who control the market and don't make anything when it's not moving are simply setting the stage for a year end rally.
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Old 08-27-2015, 03:28 PM   #71
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This seems the most likely scenario. But then again, it might not be.
Which is why I have a lot of qualifiers like "likely".
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Old 08-27-2015, 03:30 PM   #72
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What about all the people who have not got their August statements in the mail yet? Will that not trigger another leg down in September? Not everyone is on top of their portfolios on a daily basis....
The volume from those individuals is probably not high enough to make a difference.
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Old 08-27-2015, 03:48 PM   #73
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I predict that many people will say they don't predict because there's no way to know... But deep down they are

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Old 08-27-2015, 04:41 PM   #74
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I think we done hit the bottom and bounced !
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Old 08-27-2015, 06:47 PM   #75
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I predict that many people will say they don't predict because there's no way to know... But deep down they are
True that. I think they are afraid of being called a DMT.

I never try to predict how low or high the market can go. Too tough for me.

I try to sense only the market direction, and that's on a probability basis, meaning if it is more likely to be higher or lower, and not daily either but a month from now or a year. And I do not do that well either, else would have more money than I do now.
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Old 08-28-2015, 11:07 AM   #76
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The volume from those individuals is probably not high enough to make a difference.
OK but what about these guys:
Quote:
Originally Posted by BNN
there is a report circling from JP Morgan’s quantitative team that highlights the potential for some significant selling ahead based on option and derivative positioning by trading accounts such as CTAs (commodity trading accounts), Risk Parity portfolios and Volatility Managed strategies. The report reads like a math treatise and easily undermines anyone’s belief that investing is all about buying good companies at good prices.

The upshot of the report is that more wild down swings (like Monday’s 1100 point drop) are ahead. There is one glimmer of hope in the article is that some of these positions could be the first to reverse (that is start buying) when volatility declines. This report is being given some attention because a similar report was distributed last Friday that essentially laid out the events for Monday.
Just reporting the fact ma'am...
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Old 08-28-2015, 11:48 AM   #77
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The derivative and quantitative methods folks can always cause a mess when they are surprised, and you never know when they are going to blow up.
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