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Calling the market bottom
Old 08-24-2015, 06:02 AM   #1
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Calling the market bottom

Time for a little game while we watch the show. My prediction on market bottom, DOW 12,622.
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Old 08-24-2015, 06:24 AM   #2
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No clue. But I am making a bourbon run later this morning.
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Old 08-24-2015, 06:27 AM   #3
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Most people that are predicting the bottom, will overshoot. They will be expecting more carnage, and watch what they think is a dead cat bounce turn into a full-blown bull run.

They do not get back in, as they 'know' it will go down further. They got out plenty early, and are waiting to get back in. Getting back in now will have saved these people a lot of money. The trouble is, they got out of the market several months ago, and the market is now at the point where they got out.

Having said that, my thought is another 5%-10% more is the max it will fall. 15,200 is my guess.

Either way, I will put my next buy in for September ~9/5/15. Win, lose or draw, I am out of the cube farm on 7/5/2016 or sooner.
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Old 08-24-2015, 06:30 AM   #4
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Appx 30% fall 11,900. fasten your seatbelts.....
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Old 08-24-2015, 06:46 AM   #5
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No clue. But I am making a bourbon run later this morning.
Wow. This is deja vu all over again...
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Old 08-24-2015, 07:04 AM   #6
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Wow. This is deja vu all over again...
Good excuse to drink.
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Old 08-24-2015, 07:12 AM   #7
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One thing for sure, it is indeed different this time relative to interest rates and the Federal Reserve's ability to calm/alter the markets.
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Old 08-24-2015, 07:32 AM   #8
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I'm looking across the economy and the people ...lots of confidence, lots of car and truck buying, lots of real estate investing, restaurants are full, parents sending their kids to college, industrial investment rolling along ....while we are influenced by China et al, this could be a major blip ...I think it will be. Been wrong before, though ...

Other than buying in with some leftover mad money, I'm holding tight.


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Old 08-24-2015, 07:33 AM   #9
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"We are running into some choppy markets ahead. Please beam me up, Scotty."
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Old 08-24-2015, 07:49 AM   #10
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So what do you think will be the close tomorrow afternoon if the rout today continues?
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Old 08-24-2015, 07:59 AM   #11
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I predict that we hit the bottom today and there's a decent sized reversal. Not to the point of being up today, but being down significantly less than the 3.7% we are down premarket right now.
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Old 08-24-2015, 07:59 AM   #12
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Looking at the futures this morning it appears we have a "Panic".
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Old 08-24-2015, 08:40 AM   #13
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I predict the S&P 500 will be down around 5% today.
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Old 08-24-2015, 08:54 AM   #14
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Hah!

Although I do admit seeing DOW down 1000 points right after the open made me sit up!

S&P500 moved into 10% correction territory today, finally, after many years. I'll be glad to not hear the bemoaners on the particular point for a while.
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Old 08-24-2015, 08:56 AM   #15
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Time for rebalancing soon. Glad I don't need to sell right now. Might just look into buying.


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Old 08-24-2015, 09:42 AM   #16
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I'm looking across the economy and the people ...lots of confidence, lots of car and truck buying, lots of real estate investing, restaurants are full, parents sending their kids to college, industrial investment rolling along ....while we are influenced by China et al, this could be a major blip ...I think it will be.
I tend to agree.

Conversely, I do worry sometimes about the "low information" population. As long as the Kardashians are on tonight, everyone is happy and out buying new cars. The old Roman "give them bread and circus".

With a good portion of the population not being able to mentally connect "evil Wall St" to their own 401k's I wonder how much of that optimism is warranted.
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Old 08-24-2015, 09:54 AM   #17
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Old 08-24-2015, 09:57 AM   #18
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The only bottom I know for sure is the one I'm sitting on. As for major market indices, my guess is they will end this year above where they are now.
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Old 08-24-2015, 09:58 AM   #19
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No clue. But I am making a bourbon run later this morning.
Wait till 5pm and I will join you.
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Old 08-24-2015, 10:01 AM   #20
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Good excuse to drink.
I prefer vodka martini, three olives, shaken not stirred. If gin then stirred.
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