Cannabis

[Razor Hog]

Hey Group, first time on this forum. I would like some other peoples thoughts. I just bought 1000 shares of Aurora Cannabis(ACBFF). It's OTC on the Canada stock market. Cannabis stocks is going threw the roof. On Oct. 17 cannabis will be legal in Canada. I was thinking about buying a few more shares. Tilray is going crazy take a look. I know it's a risk, but from all the info I can find, says it's a good buy. I would like the opinion of this awesome forum.

 

[OldShooter]

Hey Group, first time on this forum. I would like some other peoples thoughts. I just bought 1000 shares of Aurora Cannabis(ACBFF). It's OTC on the Canada stock market. Cannabis stocks is going threw the roof. On Oct. 17 cannabis will be legal in Canada. I was thinking about buying a few more shares. Tilray is going crazy take a look. I know it's a risk, but from all the info I can find, says it's a good buy. I would like the opinion of this awesome forum.

Well, those 1,000 shares didn't just fall out of the sky. You bought them from someone who though it was time to sell, almost certainly a professional with far more information on the company and the market than you have. You might even have bought from one of those people who is providing "info that says it's a good buy." The term for that is "pump and dump."

Or, hey, it might go up. Any individual stock purchase is a gamble; stocks like this are just more risky than most. Jason Zwieg's book "Your Money & Your Brain" explains why people are attracted to this game.

 

[bada bing]

It is pretty easy to predict there will be a huge consolidation in cannabis stocks. There are going to be lots of losers and a few winners. The problem is predicting which is which.

Here is a little story that may or may not come true. The USA is moving towards legalization in a lot of states and maybe Federally. If/when that happens, cannabis will be a commodity and freely shipped across state and international lines. If/when that happens, do you think that Canadian cannabis start ups will be competitive with Monsanto growing cannabis in huge plots in Kentucky and Tennessee where the climate is perfect for it ?

Money invested in small start ups has a very real chance of going up in smoke in just a few years.

 

[MRG]

Awesome. Did you know that South Africa just ruled cannabis is legal for personal use?

Here's a link:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-africa-45559954

I'm not sure how to play this trend. Obviously billions are being made. Good luck.

 

[hesperus]

Too bad you didn't buy tilray (TLRY) in mid July when it was 22 bucks a share. Closed at $173 today.
Ahhh, hindsight.

 

[dixonge]

Picked up some IIPR in Nov. 2017 (in the wife's IRA) - just wanted to participate in the 'growth' of this industry. VERY happy with the results so far...

 

[kgtest]

I read somewhere that 40% of the main canadian cannabis stocks had been shorted. FORTY PERCENT! That means although these huge gains are coming this week, next week could be and likely will be a disaster for some of these stocks.

Speculation usually fuels short term rocket like gains in pharma. Its volatile for sure.

 

[kgtest]

I shared a net jet with a private cannabis investor from Sarasota this year. Flew to Denver to make a 350million deal with his partner. Didn't say who with though.

He actually paid for my jet fare, which was about $2,000

Must be a booming time, cuz I didn't even know the guy. Seems like that fracking boom, but bigger.

 

[check6]

Sold all my CRON, CANN, CVSI today. Terrific profits. May buy back on any major dip.

 

[Samething]

Bought Tweed Inc. before they became a subsidiary of CGC. Have a nice paper profit on that stock. I have an etrade account just for speculative stocks. Bought 7 cannabis stocks. 2 have had incredible gains (RSHN is the other winner) 5 have lost value. The problem is that account was just to scratch my stock picking itch. Now it's large enough I'm taking some profits. Hate to see it go poof.

 

[beowulf]

Canada is going to have legal cannabis. That's great for them. In the US, cannabis is illegal on the federal level, except for some very tight exceptions involving certain medical issues. I do not believe there will be legalization of cannabis on the federal level anytime in the near future. In fact, there well may be federal preemption of all state legal cannabis at some point. This is not a doomsday prediction, but it is a real possibility. It's all political. At the current time, the Federal Drug Free Workplace act requires random drug testing for all federal employees with any security clearance as well as for certain jobs. It also applies to all companies that have cleared personnel who are employed by private companies that hold federal contracts. DOT requires testing of airline pilots, truck drivers, railroad engineers and many more in transportation jobs.. All employees of the DoD, DHS, DoJ, ICE, CBP, etc. and all people working at nuclear facilities and many other agencies and companies that do critical infrastructure or dangerous materials work are subject to testing. We are talking about several million people, at a minimum. Testing is for a wide range of opioids and other drugs - and it includes cannabis. The penalties for failing a drug test range from counseling and training to suspension and termination. It's unlikely that any of these folks would would be allowed to use cannabis in their current positions, whether or not it's been legalized.

To me, investing in cannabis companies is like investing if bitcoin. Some to imagine, but not something to put hard earned money into.

 

[kitesurfer2]

Canada is going to have legal cannabis. That's great for them. In the US, cannabis is illegal on the federal level, except for some very tight exceptions involving certain medical issues. I do not believe there will be legalization of cannabis on the federal level anytime in the near future. In fact, there well may be federal preemption of all state legal cannabis at some point. This is not a doomsday prediction, but it is a real possibility. It's all political. At the current time, the Federal Drug Free Workplace act requires random drug testing for all federal employees with any security clearance as well as for certain jobs. It also applies to all companies that have cleared personnel who are employed by private companies that hold federal contracts. DOT requires testing of airline pilots, truck drivers, railroad engineers and many more in transportation jobs.. All employees of the DoD, DHS, DoJ, ICE, CBP, etc. and all people working at nuclear facilities and many other agencies and companies that do critical infrastructure or dangerous materials work are subject to testing. We are talking about several million people, at a minimum. Testing is for a wide range of opioids and other drugs - and it includes cannabis. The penalties for failing a drug test range from counseling and training to suspension and termination. It's unlikely that any of these folks would would be allowed to use cannabis in their current positions, whether or not it's been legalized.

To me, investing in cannabis companies is like investing if bitcoin. Some to imagine, but not something to put hard earned money into.

most all of your comment is way off topic and should be removed. with that said, I held a secret/top clearance for 30 years while working for the DOD on a nuclear installation. I was never tested and neither was any DOD civilian, that I know of.
The military did have random testing.

On topic, I've talked with two financial advisers who advised me against 'penny' stocks. but, I don't think either knows anything about the mj stocks.

 

[ncbill]

most all of your comment is way off topic and should be removed. with that said, I held a secret/top clearance for 30 years while working for the DOD on a nuclear installation. I was never tested and neither was any DOD civilian, that I know of.
The military did have random testing.

On topic, I've talked with two financial advisers who advised me against 'penny' stocks. but, I don't think either knows anything about the mj stocks.

pro-cannabis or not his points are valid.

and it's not just federal employees/contractors who have to be worried.

there has been at least one federal court decision that voided state law that protected cannabis users from adverse actions by their employer.

with no standard for what constitutes impairment literally any level of cannabis metabolites in one's system could result in immediate termination.

beowulf's post plus the above means there remains a huge headwind against cannabis in the U.S. for potential investors.

 

[oneill225]

pro-cannabis or not his points are valid.
and it's not just federal employees/contractors who have to be worried.
there has been at least one federal court decision that voided state law that protected cannabis users from adverse actions by their employer.
with no standard for what constitutes impairment literally any level of cannabis metabolites in one's system could result in immediate termination.
beowulf's post plus the above means there remains a huge headwind against cannabis in the U.S. for potential investors.

Yes, testing will continue to occur for many as a basis of employment. It is off topic because most people are not tested and the market is potentially as big or bigger than the booze market. Can you show up to work drunk or hungover? Of course not. Would the fact that employers do not tolerate being drunk or hungover in the workplace factor in on a decision to buy a beer stock? This is a strawman argument.

Back to the topic, I currently own CARA. This is a company that is looking at the medicinal effects of cannabis. Done well so far. There are a lot of money making opportunities here, but still very early in the game. My only advice is to risk only what you can afford to lose. Future looks very bright for the industry as a whole, however.

 

[MRG]

most all of your comment is way off topic and should be removed. with that said, I held a secret/top clearance for 30 years while working for the DOD on a nuclear installation. I was never tested and neither was any DOD civilian, that I know of.
The military did have random testing.

On topic, I've talked with two financial advisers who advised me against 'penny' stocks. but, I don't think either knows anything about the mj stocks.

+1000

Besides numerous medical conditions there's nine recreational states with legal cannabis. I see a doctor every year to renew my prescription, anyone could get a script with no problems. You need zero proof. Thirty one states have legal medical cannabis at this time. Thirty one states have said the current schedule 1 is nonsense.

Folks have been beating tests for years. I have a few former Marine buddies, they successfully beat the random tests, even when they were observed producing the sample.

Two major world powers have said enough to the prohibition. They're done making criminals out of people who need medicine. There will be many more over the next couple years. Why spend billions preventing something that causes zero harm?

Here's another example of how tests work:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nb...ore-every-nba-game/ar-BBNwFMo?ocid=spartanntp

Matt Barnes admits he smoked cannibis before before every NBA game.

Understand what's going on in our country. Look at New York City, no more arrests:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/20/nyregion/marijuana-laws-new-york.html

NYC stops arresting people for cannabis.

 

[OldShooter]

All this blather about laws, testing, etc. is completely irrelevant to the OP's question. Everybody knows all of this and it is reflected in the stock price, which is the current consensus maximum that the optimists are willing to pay for the stock. If one feels that this price is incorrect, then one either shorts it, buys it, or (wisely IMO) stays out of a high risk situation by instead holding a diversified portfolio.

 

[ncbill]

Yes, testing will continue to occur for many as a basis of employment. It is off topic because most people are not tested and the market is potentially as big or bigger than the booze market. Can you show up to work drunk or hungover? Of course not. Would the fact that employers do not tolerate being drunk or hungover in the workplace factor in on a decision to buy a beer stock? This is a strawman argument.

Here's another negative for investors.

In the U.S. cannabis industry has no access to the banking system, so all transactions need to be in cash.

A potential investor has no idea what exactly is happening with the finances of any cannabis company here in the U.S.

There simply no practical financial controls when you're dealing with that much cash.

 

[jim584672]

The problem for US investors is legally these companies could be considered ongoing criminal enterprises. Is it likely they go after them? No. But they COULD technically.

 

[beowulf]

"most all of your comment is way off topic and should be removed."

"I see a doctor every year to renew my prescription, anyone could get a script with no problems. & "They're done making criminals out of people who need medicine."

Two quotes here from different posters. The first claims I'm off topic. I'm not lobbying against use of cannabis. I am pointing out, as others have done, that investing in these companies is akin to betting on a specific number on a roulette wheel. Except you probably have better odds on a roulette wheel. I might consider putting a small amount in an EFT that was made up of cannabis companies, as long as I was willing to lose the whole investment. It's the risk vs return.

The second poster states that he goes to a DR every year to get a cannabis RX and that they are given out freely. The latter part of that quote is "making criminals out of people who need medicine." If anyone get get an RX, how is it medicine? It's a palliative for certain pain issues. As you define it, it's simply recreational, no different than alcohol, with many of the same risks. Again, I'm not against the use of alcohol or cannabis - but cannabis is no more medicine than alcohol. And to invest in something that's still illegal at the federal level is way out of my personal risk range.

YMMV. It's your money, do what you want with it. But pushing investments that produce a product that's illegal sounds like pump and dump. As in telling folks what a wonderful investment is and selling what you have the moment the prices starts moving up. Do you see any cocaine or heroin producing companies selling stock in the US?

 

[Fedup]

most all of your comment is way off topic and should be removed. with that said, I held a secret/top clearance for 30 years while working for the DOD on a nuclear installation. I was never tested and neither was any DOD civilian, that I know of.
The military did have random testing.

On topic, I've talked with two financial advisers who advised me against 'penny' stocks. but, I don't think either knows anything about the mj stocks.

I was selected randomly, it was suggested by my manager. I guess with my sweet face, they were betting I was not a regular user. They were right. But this random thing is a fake.

 

[Cassius King]

Is it going to be a huge industry? Yes.
Is it a taxable industry? Yes.
Does the government like taxes? Yes.

 

[imoldernu]

I don't do investing, but this might be interesting;

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4207132-cannabis-short-tilray-73-percent-downside-40-price-target

 

[beowulf]

I was selected randomly, it was suggested by my manager. I guess with my sweet face, they were betting I was not a regular user. They were right. But this random thing is a fake.

I disagree completely. In DoD, both civilians and military are tested randomly. They use the last two numbers of your SSN as selection criteria, unless you are recommended for a test. In one year I was tested twice. I another not at all. The numbers are not tested in sequence, but are selected by a computer. This is how the program is administered. If you have proof this isn’t true, I’d really like to see it.

 

[oneill225]

The problem for US investors is legally these companies could be considered ongoing criminal enterprises. Is it likely they go after them? No. But they COULD technically.

Many of the businesses are not illegal under federal law. GNRH is a company that builds growing rooms and systems; CARA is in the pharmaceutical business developing cannaboid pain killers. Others, like COKE will benefit starting in Canada with cannabis beverages. I promise you that Coke understands the laws and would not be teaming up with cannabis suppliers if the feds were about to go scorched earth on pot (just the opposite is true).

 

[kgtest]

In the case of TLRY , that stock has limited shares available to the public. The employees will be unrestricted to sell come Jan15th. The gettin was good but won't be by the time we can buy.