Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Crystal ball time! Trade + Shutdown resolution
Old 01-07-2019, 10:36 AM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 170
Crystal ball time! Trade + Shutdown resolution

Ok, so I am thinking if progress is made on China trade negotiations AND we get a resolution to the shutdown, it is good for a 10% move in SPY.

Currently you can buy March $265 calls for $3.75

A 10% move on SPY at 253 would be $278, making the calls worth at least $13.75

I mean you can do stuff like this any time but this is my prediction for a good gamble on a short term move.

Or just go to Vegas. But you have to endure that flight and all the walking. But there are the buffet and crab legs at the Bellagio...
__________________

gstillson is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 01-07-2019, 10:53 AM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,646
Opt for the buffet.
__________________

__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2019, 11:08 AM   #3
Recycles dryer sheets
corn18's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 371
I'll just let my current shares of US total stock go up 10% and rebalance.
corn18 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2019, 03:36 PM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 9,364
I don't think there will be a 10% move in the S&P 500 because there has already been almost a 10% positive move in the S&P500 since the Christmas Eve low.

There will be a pop for sure, but unlikely to be more than 5% over a couple of days. That's my prediction.
LOL! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2019, 03:42 PM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 1,899
Quote:
Originally Posted by gstillson View Post
I mean you can do stuff like this any time but this is my prediction for a good gamble on a short term move.

Or just go to Vegas. But you have to endure that flight and all the walking. But there are the buffet and crab legs at the Bellagio...
My crystal ball is hazy. And I don't need it for my investing.

If you enjoy gambling, go and gamble. I like blackjack myself.
__________________
Old enough to know better.
joeea is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-07-2019, 04:37 PM   #6
Moderator Emeritus
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 41,350
Quote:
Originally Posted by joeea View Post
My crystal ball is hazy. And I don't need it for my investing.
(In a mystical voice: ) Look inside my crystal ball.....
….. and you will see.... nothing very clearly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by joeea View Post
If you enjoy gambling, go and gamble. I like blackjack myself.
+1
Except in my case, I like the quarter slots.
__________________
Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harborless immensities.
- - - H. Melville, 1851
W2R is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2019, 12:39 PM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 1,442
Quote:
Originally Posted by gstillson View Post
Ok, so I am thinking if progress is made on China trade negotiations AND we get a resolution to the shutdown, it is good for a 10% move in SPY.

Currently you can buy March $265 calls for $3.75

A 10% move on SPY at 253 would be $278, making the calls worth at least $13.75

I mean you can do stuff like this any time but this is my prediction for a good gamble on a short term move.

Or just go to Vegas. But you have to endure that flight and all the walking. But there are the buffet and crab legs at the Bellagio...
How about this for a scenario? The trade war escalates and the shutdown drags on into the 2nd quarter. Earnings reports in April show negative earnings growth and we are down 25% from here.

Or you get the events you predict, but the market decides that means further rate hikes are coming and goes down anyway.
Hamlet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-11-2019, 01:41 PM   #8
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Red Badger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Piedmont Region
Posts: 1,428
Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R View Post
(In a mystical voice: ) Look inside my crystal ball.....
.. and you will see.... nothing very clearly.

+1
Except in my case, I like the quarter slots.
Video poker machines for me.Years ago, I went on base to the NCO club and bought a pack af smokes for $1.25. Dropped the change ($.75) into a video poker machine. I rolled a royal flush and the machine pooped out $500 in quarters!
__________________

__________________
Never let yesterday use up too much of today.
W. Rogers
Red Badger is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Crystal ball time... future cost of assisted living? LARS FIRE and Money 28 09-16-2014 03:38 PM
Anyone got an Oil Crystal Ball? JPatrick FIRE and Money 21 03-01-2006 10:32 PM
Looking in your crystal ball for the inflation rate MJ FIRE and Money 21 10-21-2005 06:27 AM

» Quick Links

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:41 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.