Crystal ball time! Trade + Shutdown resolution

[gstillson]

Ok, so I am thinking if progress is made on China trade negotiations AND we get a resolution to the shutdown, it is good for a 10% move in SPY.

Currently you can buy March $265 calls for $3.75

A 10% move on SPY at 253 would be $278, making the calls worth at least $13.75

I mean you can do stuff like this any time but this is my prediction for a good gamble on a short term move.

Or just go to Vegas. But you have to endure that flight and all the walking. But there are the buffet and crab legs at the Bellagio...

[brewer12345]

Opt for the buffet.

[corn18]

I'll just let my current shares of US total stock go up 10% and rebalance.

[LOL!]

I don't think there will be a 10% move in the S&P 500 because there has already been almost a 10% positive move in the S&P500 since the Christmas Eve low.

There will be a pop for sure, but unlikely to be more than 5% over a couple of days. That's my prediction.

[joeea]

Quote:

Originally Posted by gstillson I mean you can do stuff like this any time but this is my prediction for a good gamble on a short term move. Or just go to Vegas. But you have to endure that flight and all the walking. But there are the buffet and crab legs at the Bellagio...

My crystal ball is hazy. And I don't need it for my investing.

If you enjoy gambling, go and gamble. I like blackjack myself.

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeea My crystal ball is hazy. And I don't need it for my investing.

(In a mystical voice: ) Look inside my crystal ball.....
….. and you will see.... nothing very clearly.

Quote:

Originally Posted by joeea If you enjoy gambling, go and gamble. I like blackjack myself.

+1
Except in my case, I like the quarter slots.

[Hamlet]

Quote:

Originally Posted by gstillson Ok, so I am thinking if progress is made on China trade negotiations AND we get a resolution to the shutdown, it is good for a 10% move in SPY. Currently you can buy March $265 calls for $3.75 A 10% move on SPY at 253 would be $278, making the calls worth at least $13.75 I mean you can do stuff like this any time but this is my prediction for a good gamble on a short term move. Or just go to Vegas. But you have to endure that flight and all the walking. But there are the buffet and crab legs at the Bellagio...

How about this for a scenario? The trade war escalates and the shutdown drags on into the 2nd quarter. Earnings reports in April show negative earnings growth and we are down 25% from here.

Or you get the events you predict, but the market decides that means further rate hikes are coming and goes down anyway.

[Red Badger]

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R (In a mystical voice: ) Look inside my crystal ball..... ….. and you will see.... nothing very clearly. +1 Except in my case, I like the quarter slots.

Video poker machines for me.Years ago, I went on base to the NCO club and bought a pack af smokes for $1.25. Dropped the change ($.75) into a video poker machine. I rolled a royal flush and the machine pooped out $500 in quarters!