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Current thoughts on Apple and where it might go?
Old 05-16-2013, 09:36 AM   #1
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Current thoughts on Apple and where it might go?

Most of my friends still use Iphones and Ipads, with a few androids (nobody has a Lumia).

Do you think Apple is getting a bit unfairly punished in a market where every other tech is going through the roof? Have you switched to an android phone and are falling in love with windows8? Has the market got it right?

I am tempted to buy a bit if it gets pushed down to $390. Not a lot, but just a little in my small trading account.
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Old 05-16-2013, 09:43 AM   #2
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I used to have a lot of Apple stock, but bailed out as it started to come down. Wish I had the foresight to sell it off when it hit $700 or so! I sold the majority of mine in the $520-560 range, although I also sold off a few around the $610-670 range.

Right now, I'm just trying to keep my Apple holdings at a specific dollar amount. If it goes to around $450-460 per share, I'll sell off a few. And if it goes to around $375, I'll buy a few. And then re-evaluate my next by/sell thresholds at that time.
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Old 05-16-2013, 09:44 AM   #3
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I'm a ridiculously devoted Apple fan, getting ready to switch out a first gen Air with a MBPro. Our two person household has 6 devices. Why so devoted? Since retired I have no "tech department" to help me figure out why my PC is so slow or doesn't work with other things. I've never had a problem with the Apple stuff that a simple search didn't resolve. So I'm loyal. Yes, I know it's expensive but it's worth it to me.

My DS, DD, and others feel the same way. Wouldn't consider adding an alternate to the stable. So yes, I believe Apple has staying power. Now, from a business standpoint will others take their market share? Absolutely. I have no idea where there stock will go. I'm a MFund guy so I own a lot of A but not directly.
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Old 05-16-2013, 09:53 AM   #4
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I felt this way about Green Mountain Coffee Roasters when it was bashed to $17 but didn't act on it.

I had friends still using K-cups...swearing by them. I saw them in Costco on a prominent display.

The market had me thinking GMCR was going to zero.

today it is trading for $81


makes you wonder about other stocks like Apple getting destroyed in a generally up market...
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Old 05-16-2013, 12:02 PM   #5
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I am holding the course. Was it worth $700. I doubt it. But is it worth more than $450. Sure!

(I bought in at an ACB of $8 then sold all at $75 and repurchased half for $52. Just counting the dividends now from those 300 shares. What surprises me most is what happens to a stock when it captures the attention of Wall Street.)
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Old 05-16-2013, 06:48 PM   #6
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Fund manager rotation, a game of mutual fund chicken. It will end as the company becomes viewed as innovative again. It's hard to be patient, but Apple is not another Research in Motion (Blackberry).
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Old 05-16-2013, 08:33 PM   #7
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I bought apple at $450 few months ago knowing that was to cheap, then listened to CEO talk stupid about not giving cash reserves to shareholders or investing it in acquisitions. He has since changed course but thru the pain I was glad to sell at $425 and cut my losses. Leadership of cook is the problem and his disregard of shareholders, not the products.
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Old 05-17-2013, 07:59 AM   #8
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I had AAPL from back in the 90s at an adjusted price of ~$10/share. Sold most of it at $180, bought some back at <$100 (in 2008), and then sold it all again at $395 at the end of 2011 because I was in the 15% bracket and wanted to lock in the 0% CGs. I was planning on buying it right back to readjust my cost basis, but then watched as it climbed over $700, cursing all the way. I was able to buy back in recently at $400, completing my cost basis plan. But I missed the run up and the chance to sell again. Still, based just on AAPL, I'm a stock market genius. We won't talk about Enron or Worldcom or any of those others.

I still think AAPL is a great company, but there are two things that will be required to make it a great investment. One, obviously, is the ability to redefine markets like they did when Steve Jobs was in charge. That's a huge question. The other is whether the corporate tax landscape changes in a way that allows them to repatriate their $100+ billion dollars locked up overseas. If it does, they could end up paying a huge dividend without impacting any other aspect of their business.

Either way, they are worth having in your portfolio. Of course, I'm talking about an Uncle Mick-style testosterone portfolio, just something to play with. I'm not an individual stock investor in big dollar amounts. And all of the above is JMO, and worth what you paid for it.
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Old 05-17-2013, 04:21 PM   #9
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I am tempted to buy a bit if it gets pushed down to $390. Not a lot, but just a little in my small trading account.

+1
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Old 05-18-2013, 11:15 AM   #10
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I think that AAPL is moving from a growth play to a value play. This is mostly due to the lack of vision ascribed to Tim Cook. But then it is nice to get that nice dividend and also know that the downside is not great on the stock price. Plus there is those stock buybacks that are bound to have an effect on the price eventually.

(Of course my cost base is $52 so I can afford to wax philosophic.)
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Old 05-18-2013, 11:49 AM   #11
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....

(Of course my cost base is $52 so I can afford to wax philosophic.)
Son in law bought in at $600. Imagine his bruises from kicking himself.
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Old 05-18-2013, 12:21 PM   #12
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I think that AAPL is moving from a growth play to a value play.
+1. Bought a few shares at $425 for the well covered dividend by this cash cow business.

I am an Apple fan and own most of their products (though I never owned the stock until recently). What concerns me is that they seem to be losing what made their products attractive in the past. Apple is not "cool" anymore because their products have become so ubiquitous, and they are losing their innovative edge really fast it seems.
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Old 05-18-2013, 10:40 PM   #13
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I bought 100 shares @438. I really like that have 5 years of dividends in the bank.
No clue what the future will hold.
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Old 05-19-2013, 08:18 AM   #14
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Most of my friends still use Iphones and Ipads, with a few androids (nobody has a Lumia).

Do you think Apple is getting a bit unfairly punished in a market where every other tech is going through the roof? Have you switched to an android phone and are falling in love with windows8? Has the market got it right?

I am tempted to buy a bit if it gets pushed down to $390. Not a lot, but just a little in my small trading account.
The market has it right. Once Jobs passed, the sizzle was gone.

I played with an iPhone for a while, and decided it was too limited for me. Wife and daughter got new iPhones, and I settled for a Droid Charge. When it came time to buy something with power, I went for the Nexus 10 tablet. We have ipads, but the Nexus 10 is superior for my uses.

I have not seen a Windows phone in use, not ever.

I don't buy individual stocks, so can't comment on your stock purchase. I do know that APPL is in several of our stock funds. So we may have something like a 4% stake in AAPL already.
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Old 05-19-2013, 08:39 AM   #15
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I believe the AAPL will trade between $400-$500 for at least the next 6 months which is why I trade options on it and not the stock itself. There is tons of money to be made in options when a stock stays in a fairly consistent range.

I can't see it breaking the resistance at $500 anytime in the next 6 months to a year. A stock this big that isn't moving up consistently when the market is exploding is going to be hard pressed to move up when the market stagnates or pulls back.
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Old 05-25-2013, 09:30 AM   #16
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Back in Oct. 12, a co-worker asked me what he should do with is apple stock. He bought at around 300 and it was around 690 then. Said technicals indicate topping and major drop. He did not sell, and says 'shed's tears everyday'. Well don't kick someone when their down. So, yes I agree intermediate term bounce; sell then to get some profit if you can. Option's guys, well you know what to do I guess, go long, then short it at top again. It will ultimately be lower than it's last low. (Back in 1999 Cisco was selling at around $80, said technicals say sell if breaks support, it did and went down to around $14, I think.) Well at lot of people lost their gains. I lost a girlfriend who bought at $80 - said I was thinking crazy, she was in IT and she and her IT friends knew it was only headed up. I am really sad when people lose $, but usually they get angry at me, like I did it.
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Old 05-25-2013, 09:57 AM   #17
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Apple makes interesting products, but others are also doing so these days. I think its products are becoming more commodity like. Whether that continues or they can reverse it, is hard to say.

I would love to see Apple make a line of small home appliances that really work well. Are there any toasters that actually make nice evenly toasted bread, handle different breads well, can be adjusted easily, and are easy to clean?
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Old 05-25-2013, 10:05 AM   #18
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I'll go with your commodity thinking. Personally, I'm not a fan of how Apple locks you in to their proprietary products / services. Therefore never bought an Apple product, stayed with MS, Android, etc. But, a toaster, know they may get me with that, as long as I don't have to buy my bread from only Apple. Have a good one.
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Old 05-25-2013, 02:03 PM   #19
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I would love to see Apple make a line of small home appliances that really work well. Are there any toasters that actually make nice evenly toasted bread, handle different breads well, can be adjusted easily, and are easy to clean?
+1 So many everyday products have such obvious lack of thought in them. I've actually toyed around with the idea of making my own toaster. I'd use tempered glass so you can see when the toast is to your liking, no timer/sensor gets it right. The whole thing would 'accordion' in-out to accommodate different thicknesses and still maintain the same distance from heater to bread surface.

I thought Woz was working on a remote control? Remotes need help, buttons not distinctive enough, all sorts of issues.

Even though Apple has a reputation for good UI, and it is often deserved, they have huge gaps in many of their products that they have never fixed. And they've gone backwards in many cases. I'm mostly on Xubuntu now, so I tend to forget what they are now. But I recently was troubleshooting a problem on DW's MacBookPro, and I had to search for a hidden system file. OMG, what a PITA! You have to jump through some hoops to force it to search in the system files, and you can't make it remember that setting - you need to dig through the menus each time (edit/add: and there is no indication that certain folders are not searched, you just have to 'know' this!). And then, you need to go into the terminal to enable hidden file viewing, and kill/restart the Finder for it to take effect, and then reverse that for normal operation.

In Ubuntu, it's Control-H to toggle hidden file view, or go to the pull down menu. Oh, and browsers have tabs, but not the Finder. I use tabs for my file browsing all the time, and am lost in OSX w/o it. I feel like I'm driving a Model T.

First World problems

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