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Old 10-21-2008, 04:40 AM   #61
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The only buying we are doing is with the 401k.

I do intend to rebalance some equity positions (within the equity part of the portfolio).

I am not intending to use my fixed allocation to buy more equity... too close to ER. I am worried it might jeopardize my ER plans.

Trying to balance out my greed with my fear.
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Old 11-02-2008, 09:20 AM   #62
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Bought GE @ 18.45 & F @ 2.17 long term holds.... (yrs)

My 401k already has 15,500.00 in it for the yr.

Still adding to the Roth, 26th of every month. Auto dep.
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Old 11-02-2008, 09:44 AM   #63
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still bearish for a quick downwave below the October 10th lows and a rally to start after that
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Old 11-02-2008, 09:52 AM   #64
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I think we have seen the bottom.
JMHO
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Old 11-02-2008, 09:57 AM   #65
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The Dow Transports and Industrials have to confirm each other's moves. Goes back decades. The Transports made a new low, but not the DJIA.

Just like the Transports made a new high earlier in the year but not the DJIA so it went lower. Transports are now rising and the DJIA has to confirm a lower low before it can go up. Transports went up a lot in the last 5-10 days so a correction is in order. Like it is for a lot of stocks and ETF's that already made a lower low and shot up

Charles Dow first picked up on this trend almost 100 years ago that stocks have to confirm each other's moves
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Old 11-02-2008, 09:59 AM   #66
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Well, the good news is..... One of us will be right.
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Old 11-02-2008, 10:48 AM   #67
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I think we have seen the bottom.
JMHO
What about the dismal holiday shopping season and the millions of layoffs in the near future? Won't they have an effect on finding the bottom?

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2008/...-of-the-storm/
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Old 11-02-2008, 11:55 AM   #68
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Maybe, but with so much bad already factored into the market I think we have seen it. It was really over done. Like nothing else we have seen as it was so broad. On top of the 10-15% prior to the collapse.
(Did U.S companies really loose 50% of their value this summer?)
I think not.
I am just giving my opinion. Worth nothing.
On the plus side the election should help, not to mention Dec is generally better than Oct. Poor x-mas turn out or not.
The market generally hates Oct.
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Old 11-02-2008, 02:19 PM   #69
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I've just bought $5K worth of high quality dividend stocks. Had planned this anyhow; decided to do it prior to the US election.
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Old 11-02-2008, 04:54 PM   #70
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Maybe, but with so much bad already factored into the market I think we have seen it. It was really over done. Like nothing else we have seen as it was so broad. On top of the 10-15% prior to the collapse.
(Did U.S companies really loose 50% of their value this summer?)
I think not.
I am just giving my opinion. Worth nothing.
On the plus side the election should help, not to mention Dec is generally better than Oct. Poor x-mas turn out or not.
The market generally hates Oct.
My opinion is that the worst is yet to come.
Over the last 7 years when ever the DOW started to drop, the FED would lower interest rates and pump money into the economy. The DOW peak was artificially achieved through government manipulation. Now that it's come to a head all the government bailouts in the world will not stop the coming deep recession and what the market does during a recession is not usually good..
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Old 11-02-2008, 06:39 PM   #71
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historically the market starts to go up when a recession starts. 2000 - 2002 was a different case. market started to rally in 2001 and right before 9/11 the downtrend was losing steam until the terrorist attack. but even then after a few down weeks we rallied big into 2002 and the Enron/Wcom BK's which were just a confidence issue more than anything else
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Old 11-03-2008, 06:02 AM   #72
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historically the market starts to go up when a recession starts. 2000 - 2002 was a different case. market started to rally in 2001 and right before 9/11 the downtrend was losing steam until the terrorist attack. but even then after a few down weeks we rallied big into 2002 and the Enron/Wcom BK's which were just a confidence issue more than anything else
This time it really is different. The government can only do so much to bailout the financial institutions and prop up the market. They are running out of ammunition. In the coming months there are going to be millions of layoffs which will lead to even more people losing their homes causing even more pressure on the banks. Also it is the beginning of the commercial realestate meltdown and bankruptcy of the big three. There are more shoes to drop before we even start to recover. I expect the market to rise for a few weeks and then start it's search for the real bottom betwwen 5000 and 7000 after the holiday season..
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Old 11-03-2008, 07:37 AM   #73
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GM and Chrysler BK's aren't going to be as scary as predicted. They will be in the BK process for the next 10 years or so while every little detail is litigated, assets sold and contracts negotiated.

in the meantime Toyota and Honda will increase production and start hiring workers that worked for GM. Acuras are made in Ohio and Tundras in Texas.
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Old 11-03-2008, 05:18 PM   #74
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GM and Chrysler BK's aren't going to be as scary as predicted. They will be in the BK process for the next 10 years or so while every little detail is litigated, assets sold and contracts negotiated.

in the meantime Toyota and Honda will increase production and start hiring workers that worked for GM. Acuras are made in Ohio and Tundras in Texas.
There will be thousands layed off from good paying jobs that let them buy homes and support families. Toyota and Honda are going to see lower sales for awhile too while the recession takes hold. I doubt if Toyota will hire the Union boys from the big three.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marke...33490020081103
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Old 11-03-2008, 05:54 PM   #75
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there have been studies done the Japaneese pay their people about as much as the big 3. big difference is they are more efficient and so their production costs are less
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Old 11-03-2008, 10:03 PM   #76
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This time it really is different.
No its not.

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The government can only do so much to bailout the financial institutions and prop up the market. They are running out of ammunition. In the coming months there are going to be millions of layoffs which will lead to even more people losing their homes causing even more pressure on the banks.
Since this is the basis of your prediction, where are you coming from? Have you read articles that say that "millions of layoffs" are coming? Or are you just feeling depressed and negative? I agree that the worst isn't over, but I think you are off by a factor of 10, if not 100 on the layoffs (my gut feeling). And if so than the rest of this doesn't follow.

Quote:
Also it is the beginning of the commercial realestate meltdown and bankruptcy of the big three. There are more shoes to drop before we even start to recover. I expect the market to rise for a few weeks and then start it's search for the real bottom betwwen 5000 and 7000 after the holiday season..
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Old 11-04-2008, 06:10 AM   #77
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No its not.



Since this is the basis of your prediction, where are you coming from? Have you read articles that say that "millions of layoffs" are coming? Or are you just feeling depressed and negative? I agree that the worst isn't over, but I think you are off by a factor of 10, if not 100 on the layoffs (my gut feeling). And if so than the rest of this doesn't follow.

When was the last time the government gave $800 billion to bailout our financial institutions? Yes, it really is different this time even though some refuse to accept it.

Yes, I have read many articles about the upcoming layoffs. During the coming recession experts are predicting unemployement of 7 to 9%. That would mean millions of layoffs. Do the math.

I could see this coming a year ago and took the precautions neccessary to protect my money. I don't feel sorry for anyone that ignores all the indicators and invests on faith.
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Old 11-04-2008, 10:35 AM   #78
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When was the last time the government gave $800 billion to bailout our financial institutions? Yes, it really is different this time even though some refuse to accept it.

Yes, I have read many articles about the upcoming layoffs. During the coming recession experts are predicting unemployement of 7 to 9%. That would mean millions of layoffs. Do the math.

I could see this coming a year ago and took the precautions neccessary to protect my money. I don't feel sorry for anyone that ignores all the indicators and invests on faith.
Not exactly. Faith is the only way to invest.

Target Retirement 2015 - the computers don't seem to get excited and there is an empty collection plate when the basket is passed - gotta love those low expenses.

For those who feel humans should be involved:

Pssst - Wellesley! You knew that was coming didn't ya.

This too shall pass. Stay the course.

heh heh heh - a few down periods since 1966 and was layed off twice - the second time ticked me off so much I ER'd rather than move. Rebalance on.
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Old 11-04-2008, 03:53 PM   #79
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I converted $5000 IRA-Roth earlier this week (Bond to TSM). It's a buy and a sell.
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Old 11-04-2008, 04:50 PM   #80
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Not exactly. Faith is the only way to invest.
Yeah, forget about knowledge and research, they will just confuse you. Stay the course.
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