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Old 11-05-2008, 01:58 PM   #81
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When was the last time the government gave $800 billion to bailout our financial institutions? Yes, it really is different this time even though some refuse to accept it.

Yes, I have read many articles about the upcoming layoffs. During the coming recession experts are predicting unemployement of 7 to 9%. That would mean millions of layoffs. Do the math.

I could see this coming a year ago and took the precautions neccessary to protect my money. I don't feel sorry for anyone that ignores all the indicators and invests on faith.
what were the same experts predicting this time last year? last year i listened to an interview with an economist who predicted slowing economic growth and the SP500 would hit 1600 by the end of 2007 and that's it
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Old 11-05-2008, 04:12 PM   #82
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what were the same experts predicting this time last year? last year i listened to an interview with an economist who predicted slowing economic growth and the SP500 would hit 1600 by the end of 2007 and that's it
I guess I listened to better experts. They said the market was being propped up by rate cuts and the FED pumping money into the economy. The record DOW was all done with smoke and mirrors. It could not last. They said the financial institutions were in trouble and the housing bubble bursting would lead to record foreclosures, some bank failures, thousands in the housing industry would be laid off and too much consumer debt would cause spending to drop. Also that our economy can not survive just on credit and consumerism and we actually needed a manufacturing base and sending jobs overseas was not such a great idea.

It was not just one expert, but dozens that I got bits and pieces from. All the clues were there.
I moved all my equity funds into stable value funds 10/07 and I feel really good about it. I quit listening to financial advisors after getting burnt twice before.
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Old 11-06-2008, 02:52 PM   #83
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tech looks very nice. looking for the SP to rally to around 970 tomorrow or Monday and then will probably sell my SSO and get into some tech

USD and ROM look like they made a bottom 2 weeks ago and are just retracing part of the rally from the bottom. along with Nvidia and Mem-C. might even diversify into UYM
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Old 11-06-2008, 02:55 PM   #84
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After pausing last week, I have resumed my equity purchases today.
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Old 11-06-2008, 03:03 PM   #85
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even bob prechter was scared by monday's rally and the newsletter that day had a theory with a disclaimer that the this pattern has never been seen in decades if ever if this is what is in progress.

my guess is we'll rally to 970 tomorrow or in the next day or so and then a final leg down below October 10th lows. once we go below 845 this is most likely the case.

still a possibilty that this is just a very deep retracement of the rally that started last week or two weeks ago when SP hit 845 intraday
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Old 11-06-2008, 04:31 PM   #86
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Since this is the basis of your prediction, where are you coming from? Have you read articles that say that "millions of layoffs" are coming? Or are you just feeling depressed and negative? I agree that the worst isn't over, but I think you are off by a factor of 10, if not 100 on the layoffs (my gut feeling). And if so than the rest of this doesn't follow.
This is only the beginning.....


Large job losses expected for October - MarketWatch

The median forecast by economists surveyed by MarketWatch was for a loss of 210,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in October, the most since March 2003. According to a survey of work sites, payrolls have already declined for nine straight months for a total of 760,000 fewer jobs.
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Old 11-06-2008, 04:37 PM   #87
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i'll believe it when i see it

i remember reading the LTCM chapter in Cramer's bio. Nasdaq dropped 50% in 1998 and everyone was talking recession. last year most economists were talking slight recession or slow growth.
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Old 11-06-2008, 05:28 PM   #88
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I could see this coming a year ago and took the precautions neccessary to protect my money. I don't feel sorry for anyone that ignores all the indicators and invests on faith.
Razor, I can understand why such a superior person would have little sympathy for his inferiors. I am grateful that you are still willing to spend time with us.

Ha
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Old 11-06-2008, 05:31 PM   #89
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i'll believe it when i see it

i remember reading the LTCM chapter in Cramer's bio. Nasdaq dropped 50% in 1998 and everyone was talking recession. last year most economists were talking slight recession or slow growth.

All the bubbles have burst. What is going to pull the economy out of this mess? Manufacturing? Housing? the service industry? Technology? The Financial sector? Or will the government be the saviour?
Looks like most economists were wrong.
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Old 11-06-2008, 07:29 PM   #90
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razor, i can understand why such a superior person would have little sympathy for his inferiors. I am grateful that you are still willing to spend time with us.

Ha
lol.
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Old 11-06-2008, 07:33 PM   #91
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All the bubbles have burst. What is going to pull the economy out of this mess? Manufacturing? Housing? the service industry? Technology? The Financial sector? Or will the government be the saviour?
Looks like most economists were wrong.
pssst - corn. And you heard it from Missouri not Iowa.



heh heh heh - I wonder if anyone can untangle the transparency problem in the markets near term. I really don't want to see a 66-82 long stretch. I expect to survive one if necessary but I sure won't like it.
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Old 11-06-2008, 07:39 PM   #92
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pssst - corn. And you heard it from Missouri not Iowa.



heh heh heh - I wonder if anyone can untangle the transparency problem in the markets near term. I really don't want to see a 66-82 long stretch. I expect to survive one if necessary but I sure won't like it.
psst...Obama is the man to fix the problems. Good times are ahead.
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Old 11-06-2008, 07:42 PM   #93
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All the bubbles have burst. What is going to pull the economy out of this mess? Manufacturing? Housing? the service industry? Technology? The Financial sector? Or will the government be the saviour?
Looks like most economists were wrong.
Let's just shoot ourselves. You go first...
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Old 11-07-2008, 06:00 AM   #94
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Let's just shoot ourselves. You go first...
Why would I shoot myself? I got out of the market before it started to plummet. It always amazes me how people only listen to good news and ignor bad news even if it's the truth. I guess they think the bad things will go away if they ignor them and then they are surprised when everything goes south.
I would love to hear something positive, but when a stock gains when they reported that losses weren't as bad as forecasted I know something is wrong.
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Old 11-07-2008, 06:06 AM   #95
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Razor, I can understand why such a superior person would have little sympathy for his inferiors. I am grateful that you are still willing to spend time with us.

Ha
Not superior at all. Just had my eyes open and did not listen to cliches from financial advisors. "You're in it for the long hall", "the market always goes up", "you can never lose money in real estate", "you need stocks to keep up with inflation", "he market has historically averaged over 10% return".........
Why do some of you get so irrate when one gives a differering opinion?
I reaaly had nothing to do with your losses.
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Old 11-07-2008, 06:53 AM   #96
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Why would I shoot myself? I got out of the market before it started to plummet. It always amazes me how people only listen to good news and ignor bad news even if it's the truth. I guess they think the bad things will go away if they ignor them and then they are surprised when everything goes south.
I would love to hear something positive, but when a stock gains when they reported that losses weren't as bad as forecasted I know something is wrong.
That was supposed to be funny...

The stock market is not directly tied to any particular piece of data, so what it did yesterday, or what it will do tomorrow, is anyone's guess. I'm not wearing any rose-colored glasses, thank you, but I consider the absolute worse-case scenario to be of relatively low probability. And I have some hedges; nothing too fancy - bonds, cash, a smidgen of CCF. And a j*b...

You need a new piano. The one you're playing only has one note, and it's off pitch...
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Old 11-07-2008, 06:22 PM   #97
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That was supposed to be funny...

The stock market is not directly tied to any particular piece of data, so what it did yesterday, or what it will do tomorrow, is anyone's guess. I'm not wearing any rose-colored glasses, thank you, but I consider the absolute worse-case scenario to be of relatively low probability. And I have some hedges; nothing too fancy - bonds, cash, a smidgen of CCF. And a j*b...

You need a new piano. The one you're playing only has one note, and it's off pitch...
Is that supposed to funny, too?

Worse case scenario is low probability? That is where we differ. It is only November and we have this:
Employers cut 240,000 jobs in October - Stocks & economy
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Old 11-07-2008, 07:18 PM   #98
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so why did the market go up today then?
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Old 11-07-2008, 08:17 PM   #99
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Not superior at all. ....

Why do some of you get so irrate when one gives a differering opinion?
I'm not irate, but maybe this perspective will help:

So a while back, Razor says "go to cash!". That same day, his arch-nemesis, Rozar says "buy, buy, buy the market!".

Later, depending on the direction of the market, either Razor or Rozar comes back, and says "If you would have listened to me, you would have done well - don't be mad at me for my success!".

With so many posters, someone's prediction was bound to match up with the reality that was to be. This time, it was Razor.

Next time?

Listen Razor, many of us have been through a number of up/down cycles in the market. There was *always someone* who got it "right". Some of them even said it before it happened. Tell you what - start a fund, beat the market on a risk adjusted basis for your investors for 20 years, then give us a call.

In the mean time, share your views. I'm usually interested in an alternative view. But don't assume we are irate, some of us are just weary.

-ERD50
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Old 11-07-2008, 09:03 PM   #100
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The real brain buster is when are the dirty market timers gonna get back in.



-CC
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