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Old 11-08-2008, 09:44 AM   #101
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I would love to hear something positive, but when a stock gains when they reported that losses weren't as bad as forecasted I know something is wrong.
This seems a very odd statement.
As long as I can remember this has always been the case for short term movements.
The analysts would forcast quarterly results. If the actual results are better than the forcasts (no matter how bad the results) the stock would go up. If the results were worse (no matter how good the results were) the stock would go down.
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Old 11-08-2008, 10:07 AM   #102
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Originally Posted by Razor View Post

I would love to hear something positive, but when a stock gains when they reported that losses weren't as bad as forecasted I know something is wrong.
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Originally Posted by Zathras View Post
This seems a very odd statement.
As long as I can remember this has always been the case for short term movements.

The analysts would forcast quarterly results. If the actual results are better than the forcasts (no matter how bad the results) the stock would go up. If the results were worse (no matter how good the results were) the stock would go down.
Exactly. If Razor is not aware of this long standing reality, he is not the student of the markets he professes to be.

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Old 11-08-2008, 06:11 PM   #103
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so why did the market go up today then?
Because the market is disconnected from reality. I believe it has not found it's bottom yet and there will be at least another million people laid off before it does.

I keep asking what is going to drive the market higher and no one has given an answer. Except "that it always goes up".
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Old 11-08-2008, 06:16 PM   #104
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Exactly. If Razor is not aware of this long standing reality, he is not the student of the markets he professes to be.

-ERD50
I have never claimed to be an expert on anything. I just believe in common sense.
We are facing some even tougher times ahead so I would guess that the market will go down before it starts a recovery. Some think the worst is over and the market has hit bottom. In my opinion they are just ignoring reality.
The only reason the market has not totally collapsed is government intervention.
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Old 11-08-2008, 06:42 PM   #105
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I have never claimed to be an expert on anything. I just believe in common sense.
We are facing some even tougher times ahead so I would guess that the market will go down before it starts a recovery. Some think the worst is over and the market has hit bottom. In my opinion they are just ignoring reality.
We may be facing tougher times, or maybe not. How can you refer to it as "ignoring reality", when reality hasn't happened yet? The market factors in what it knows (like a stock is expected to report a loss) - so you are, by definition, delving into the unknown.

You have already demonstrated that you don't understand markets by saying that you don't understand how a stock can go up after reporting bad news. So why should we give your claims much weight?

I'm not trying to knock on you, but that is simply my view of "reality".

-ERD50
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Old 11-08-2008, 07:02 PM   #106
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The real brain buster is when are the dirty market timers gonna get back in.



-CC
probably when the indexes sans the Nasdaq Comp go below the Oct 10th low.

most of the up days except the one right after the lows was on low volume and poor breadth where very less and less stocks participated. I caught Fast Money on CNBC yesterday and they said only the agricultural stocks and a few other commodity names rallied. just means short covering on the most beaten down names.

SP is making a nice triangle that will probably complete late next week. Dow is also making a consolidation pattern. Nasdaq completed it's down cycle and is just retracing the first wave of it's rally.

tech seems like a nice buy once we make the lows. looking at USD, ROM, NVDA and WFR for now
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Old 11-08-2008, 07:15 PM   #107
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I have never claimed to be an expert on anything. I just believe in common sense.
It isn't your level of expertise I question, it is your own 'common sense'. In stating you believe something is out of whack when you noticed stocks being bought when their quarterly results were bad, but better than expectations.
Again, this is the way it typically works and has for a very long time.
Now, in saying this, I am not saying we have reached bottom. I suspect we have not. But I am not ready to start buying tinfoil, guns and gold and setting myself up off-grid
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Old 11-08-2008, 07:46 PM   #108
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add uso and an oil etf to my list as well. oil is probably going to $110 or so next year
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Old 11-08-2008, 07:53 PM   #109
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Why do some of you get so irrate when one gives a differering opinion?
I reaaly had nothing to do with your losses.
Razor, we are not irate. It's just that you are annoying.

Ha
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Old 11-08-2008, 09:24 PM   #110
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I put 2 on my ignore list this week. First time I have ever done that. Feels good too.
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Old 11-08-2008, 09:50 PM   #111
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I've had Razor on my ignore list for awhile now. But you guys keep putting his posts in quotes. So, the ignore list isn't the complete solution to ignoring him. Guess I can run, but I can't hide.
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Old 11-08-2008, 10:40 PM   #112
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probably when the indexes sans the Nasdaq Comp go below the Oct 10th low.
I'm not much for TA, but it does seem I've heard from several angles that the making of new lows on LOW volume is an indicator of a turning point.

It makes some "emotional" sense to me - seems like that could be a sign that whoever was going to get out has pretty much already sold. So nowhere to go but UP.

Is that what you are looking for?

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Old 11-10-2008, 02:59 PM   #113
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most times the lowest low of a bear is on low volume and lower VIX like in 2002. this is usually true for a temporary low. sometimes you get a situation like 9/11 where the market is close to making a low and something spectacular happens.

you also get bad breadth on the final lows as most stocks have already gone down as far as they will go and a lot have started to go up

i've always wondered why we hit the lows we did in 10/1987, 9/2001 and 10/2002 until i started reading about Elliott Wave

didn't go long or short today, came close but didn't. horrible day today and i bet almost everyone who went long or short lost money
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Old 11-10-2008, 06:01 PM   #114
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No did not buy, when dow goes below 8200, I buy into an index, when it goes to 9200, I bail out. Did this a few times. Good trading market.
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Old 11-11-2008, 10:09 AM   #115
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probably will buy today

one newsletter says 885 target for the SP and the other is 877. from here we should rally to around 950 - 970 and probably go back down from there
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Old 11-12-2008, 03:32 PM   #116
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Razor, we are not irate. It's just that you are annoying.

Ha
Well, just keep thinking happy thoughts.
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Old 11-18-2008, 12:12 PM   #117
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currently holding a bear credit spread on AAPL - so far enjoying being able to profit off of the market *not* going up
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Old 11-18-2008, 10:05 PM   #118
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This week, More GE & some GOOG.
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