Did our market timers buy at the bottom?

[donheff]

If I am basically at my AA (not already heavy on equities) I try to buy some total stock or S&P index shares late in the day of a major drop. Those are my only forays into market timing and have worked so far. I shifted $100K on Monday and hopefully caught a near bottom. But I recognize that this is really a fools game so I don't over do it. No more than I can afford to risk for shits and giggles. I didn't do this during the big 2008 recession drop or I would have gotten slammed - although, even in a worst case like that, I could afford to wait out the return to previous highs before needing to sell the risked funds based on history. I took the risk this week but am still concerned that we could easily drop another 5-10% even without major additional world crises. If we get back to where we were at the beginning of this recent slide I will quickly move the 100K back into the bond fund it came from to get harvest my little gains and get back to my preferred AA - not waiting to match the previous market high.

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mulligan .... I did buy 200 shares NGHCZ of Monday. But that is just another lowly preferred stock though yielding 8.25% when I bought.

I looked and this started to trade only a few days ago. The yield is awfully good, and the issuing corp, an insurance company, appears to have stable financial standing. What's going on here, as I do not believe in risk-free rewards?

I have thought of preferred stocks in the past, but I guess I like the up/down of common stocks, which make life less boring. So, I did not spend that much time researching the universe of this asset class. But the yield above makes it more attractive than, say, SPIA annuities, despite the obvious higher risks.

PS. I could not find out whether the dividend is cumulative, but then perhaps I did not know where to look.

[Mulligan]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound I looked and this started to trade only a few days ago. The yield is awfully good, and the issuing corp, an insurance company, appears to have stable financial standing. What's going on here, as I do not believe in risk-free rewards? I have thought of preferred stocks in the past, but I guess I like the up/down of common stocks, which make life less boring. So, I did not spend that much time researching the universe of this asset class. But the yield above makes it more attractive than, say, SPIA annuities, despite the obvious higher risks.

Their interest coverage looks healthy so for a higher yield so it seemed worth a shot. My best guess is this....It is currently in that 30 day premarket selling window before it gets its official ticker symbol. I think it got caught in the market downdraft as underwriters are pushing the shares out to the market. Here is what made it interesting. Its yield is higher than the preferreds of the company which makes absolutely no sense. As you know the debt notes are higher on the pecking order over the regular preferreds. Plus the preferreds are noncumulative.
Yes the note is a 40 year one which presents yield risk on the long end, but heck the preferreds are perpetual.


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[Andre1969]

I bought a few shares of Netflix for around $93/sh the other day. I think it's up to around $116 now.

I initially bought a few shares back in late 2013. At the time it was around $342/sh, but earlier this year it did a 7:1 split, so effectively, that initial purchase is like $49/sh.

But, just to show how often it's best to just buy and hold...I had initially bought some Netflix back in early 2012, for $113.47. For some reason I sold a few months later, for $110.07. I can't remember why I bailed out so quickly...normally I'm not *that* flaky!

If I had just sat on it, my cost basis would've been $16.21/sh ($113.47/7 shares). Sometimes the best course of action is to do nothing at all!

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andre1969 Sometimes the best course of action is to do nothing at all!

Yes. I have some stocks like that. And just as often, I wish I got out sooner. Such is the problem with holding stocks instead of a diversified MF or ETF.

[Dreaming of Freedom]

I funded this year's Roth IRA on Friday & Monday with buy orders. I didn't buy at the very bottom, but got a great deal relative to prices over the past year.

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[MichaelB]

All this talk about market bottoms reminds me of the recent song by Meghan Trainor...

[NW-Bound]

Aren't you going to post it, or does someone have to ask?

[FUEGO]

Yep. Caught the flash crash with IUSV at 101 and IJS at 82 (currently sitting on 25-32% gains in those positions, though I partially hedged by selling some other LV and SCV elsewhere in the portfolio).

Also rebalanced into some emerging markets Tuesday. Missed the absolute bottom but I still got in at a decent position.

And +1 to those questioning whether we've seen the bottom yet. Your guess is as good as mine.

[nash031]

I "tactically rebalanced" about $10K from corporate bonds to stocks on Monday. Winner winner chicken dinner. But I'm not a market timer.

[Cheesehead]

I bought an additional 1% of our equities position in Total Stock Market Index at the very bottom (Tuesday's close) but that was blind good luck. It could have one down further. Since it bounced back as of Wednesday I consider Tuesday afternoon the bottom.

[W2R]

I invested half the proceeds from selling my house, in mutual funds according to my asset allocation, at the first opportunity. That was Monday, and although the Dow was down around 1674 points from the previous Monday, it went down another 205 points or so on Tuesday. So, I didn't hit the bottom but close.

I'm still happy. I wasn't trying to market time and had planned my reinvesting strategy last week. Still, I love it when things work out like this.

[audreyh1]

Quote:

Originally Posted by W2R I invested half the proceeds from selling my house, in mutual funds according to my asset allocation, at the first opportunity. That was Monday, and although the Dow was down around 1674 points from the previous Monday, it went down another 205 points or so on Tuesday. So, I didn't hit the bottom but close. I'm still happy. I wasn't trying to market time and had planned my reinvesting strategy last week. Still, I love it when things work out like this.

Congrats! You are a lucky lady!

[Midpack]

So we called the bottom for you market timers on 8/25, did you buy? Didn't you believe us?

[splitwdw]

Quote:

Originally Posted by NW-Bound Aren't you going to post it, or does someone have to ask?

"All About that Bass"

[donheff]

I did Midpack. Can't remember if the 25th or 26th but before the bounce back up. Of course we may be heading for lower lows soon.

[Senator]

Are we even at the bottom yet?

I am not a market timer, other than making monthly IVV purchase. I bought my September allocation about a week early, as the market looked low. So far, that was a decent bet.

If the market roars from here, it is good. If it declines, not as much.

In the long run, it really doesn't matter.

[audreyh1]

Give it at least three weeks (from 8/25)!

Historically things are dicey until mid October.

[Midpack]

I was joking of course, I know no one can consistently call a bottom that day, least of all me. Rebalancing is the most reliable way for me to buy low, sell high...

[HFWR]

Have taken no action, since nothing has exceeded my rebalance bands.