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Old 09-03-2015, 09:40 AM   #41
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not so much as market timing but philosophy.. I try to always sell something when we hit a market high to get at least 5% cash to wait for an 8%+ pullback to buy which in the last several years has served me rather well since this market always has a crisis.
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Old 09-03-2015, 12:07 PM   #42
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Market timing kills my brain cells.

On Tuesday, when the market dropped almost 3%, which was a buy opportunity. But the news said it might be a bear market coming. Then on Wednesday, the market shot up almost 2%, which made me not want to buy, regret not buying on Tuesday. Today it is up again, seems a no buy.
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Old 09-03-2015, 03:20 PM   #43
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Is the market bottom in?
We could test S&P ~1825 several times.... 2011 déjà vu
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Old 09-03-2015, 05:40 PM   #44
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I don't think we've seen the bottom for this cycle just yet but I did make several buys on some of the bigger dips the past few weeks. I didn't get any at their absolute bottoms but I got very close on a couple of buys. All were bought on days the particular stock hit their 52 week lows. (Which wasn't hard to do over the past few weeks) I'll buy again on the next big dips, whenever they may come. I've already sold some after a nice bounce. Some I think I might keep for a while.
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Old 09-03-2015, 07:38 PM   #45
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I didn't buy, because I don't think we are at the bottom, yet. Time will tell
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Old 09-03-2015, 07:46 PM   #46
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Not me, but a friend who likes to put in low ball limit orders on days that might open way down actually got 1000 GE at $19.95 on the August 24 opening.
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Old 09-04-2015, 10:32 AM   #47
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Still waiting for proof. Don't mind giving up a few bucks to ensure and solid upturn. Don't want to be fooled by traders...
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Old 09-04-2015, 11:04 AM   #48
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Fridays before a three day weekend with the market already nervous tend to be sell off days.

But next week we are past Labor Day, and that's when all the regular traders return to work. Hard to predict what happens then, but at least we should be back to normal volume.
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Old 09-04-2015, 01:20 PM   #49
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I think the market has a ways to go before bottoming. Margin calls haven't really kicked in yet. Watch out bellow if and when that happens.
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Old 09-13-2015, 04:01 PM   #50
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I'm sorry did a bell sound to indicate the market has bottomed? It could drop 20% next week...who knows?


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Old 09-17-2015, 03:16 PM   #51
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As mentioned above, I moved $100K into a total stock index on 8/24 (missing the bottom - or more accurately, most recent bottom - by a few points). My intention was to exit when the stock rebounded although when a rebound is enough is hard to guess. Yesterday I realized I could get out with a little better than 5% gain and escape the (temporary) calamity if the Fed decided to raise rates after all. I ended up exchanging $50K yesterday and let the rest ride. Today, after a brief market bump up following the Fed announcement I decided to get rid of the other $50K. The exchange went through at the close a little lower than yesterday's. What the heck, that $100 K was gambling outside my AA and locking in $5K in gains pays for DW's next biking trip (Normandy in June). I could just as easily have lost so I would recommend playing like this with no more than you are comfortable trashing.
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Old 09-17-2015, 03:24 PM   #52
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I bought enough at the bottom that now I am in danger of losing my 2015 ACA subsidy if I sell the wrong things.

Selling just $1000 more in stock gains might lose me $2200 in subsidy. Tricky situation.
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Old 09-17-2015, 03:26 PM   #53
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I bought enough at the bottom that now I am in danger of losing my 2015 ACA subsidy if I sell the wrong things.

Selling just $1000 more in stock gains might lose me $2200 in subsidy. Tricky situation.
I did my exchanges in iRAs so CGs are not an issue.
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Old 09-17-2015, 06:01 PM   #54
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I did my exchanges in iRAs so CGs are not an issue.
I wanted to do that but you can't get free rides in an IRA like you can in a margin account. Even though I never went on margin, I traded over $270,000 one day in an account with only $95,000 in it. With the IRA I would be facing a 90 day suspension of trading if I tried that.
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Old 09-17-2015, 06:32 PM   #55
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I think you have bigger cojones than me. I would be afraid to gamble on margin. I use two of DW's retirement accounts with similar holdings - one to move into the bond fun from total stock and the other vice versus to get around the frequent trading rules. I assume you could do it directly with ETFs but I so rarely do it getting into ETFs seems like more hassle than warrented.
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Old 09-18-2015, 12:22 PM   #56
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Using margin for short term trades is no big deal. I do it all the time. If I buy $250,000 worth of GOOG, Im not going to lose $250,000 on a short term trade. I may lose a few thousand If I'm wrong but that's about it unless theres some big announcement that I dont know about which would be pretty rare on a big stock like GOOG. Better yet, I can control the same amount of GOOG stock using options with less risk and WAY less money outlay
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Old 09-18-2015, 12:35 PM   #57
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I don't think you understand margin vs cash accounts.

In a cash settlement account like an IRA, if you have $10,000 in it, and you buy $10,000 of stock, then sell it for $10,500, then buy $10,500 of the same stock or another stock, you have to wait three days to sell it.

In a margin account, if you have $10,000 in it, and you buy $10,000 of stock, sell it for $10,500 then buy $10,500 of the same stock or another stock, you don't have to wait three days. You can actually keep trading without violating the free ride rules (eventually you might hit a limit of trades depending on the account rules).

If you never have an investment for more than the cash in your account, even in a margin account, you are never really on margin and won't get charged margin interest or risk a margin call.
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Old 09-18-2015, 12:39 PM   #58
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I don't think you understand margin vs cash accounts.

In a cash settlement account like an IRA, if you have $10,000 in it, and you buy $10,000 of stock, then sell it for $10,500, then buy $10,500 of the same stock or another stock, you have to wait three days to sell it.

In a margin account, if you have $10,000 in it, and you buy $10,000 of stock, sell it for $10,500 then buy $10,500 of the same stock or another stock, you don't have to wait three days. You can actually keep trading without violating the free ride rules (eventually you might hit a limit of trades depending on the account rules).

If you never have an investment for more than the cash in your account, even in a margin account, you are never really on margin and won't get charged margin interest or risk a margin call.
Are you talking to me?
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Old 09-18-2015, 12:42 PM   #59
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Are you talking to me?
No, donheff
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Old 09-18-2015, 12:46 PM   #60
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I wouldn't call it market-timing per se, but it became pretty clear pre-market on the 23rd or 24th of Aug that it was going to get very ugly and quickly - just based on SPX and other index futures and overnight news and performance out of Asia as well as the lousy EU opening trading ..

So I placed a number of ridiculously below market limit orders for blue-chip and highly liquid tech names, taking advantage of portfolio margin brokerage account ...

think buying AAPL <95, AMZN <500 an GOOG <600 ... so Sept has thus far been a very profitable month and clearing those postions for nice profits
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