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Did our market timers buy at the bottom?
Old 08-26-2015, 04:12 PM   #1
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Did our market timers buy at the bottom?

Of course there may be another, and another, or twelve, or not.
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Old 08-26-2015, 04:17 PM   #2
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I did just pull the trigger on a Roth conversion.

So there is a pretty good chance the market will go much lower in short order!

As to our main portfolio - not a lot of "excess cash", so no buying.
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Old 08-26-2015, 04:20 PM   #3
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I have to admit I am lousy at buying at the bottom but I am great at selling at the top . I just watch for W2R's whee and I skim some profits . This has worked great for a few years .
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Old 08-26-2015, 04:41 PM   #4
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Didn't buy at the very bottom and didn't sell at the very top, but I have the exact same stock positions I had before August 20 and yet my account has $6,500 more cash in it (and no I didn't write a check or get a dividend).

I guess you don't have to buy at the bottom or sell at the top to win the game, as long as you don't play the game too often.
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Old 08-26-2015, 05:08 PM   #5
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I missed the flash drop but managed to pick up a few shares of XOM at 70 and KMI at 31. I also added to my SCHD at just below 36. All are long term holds.

I'm not schooled enough on option strategies and only sold covered calls in years gone by so I don't play that game.
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Old 08-26-2015, 05:22 PM   #6
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Bottom? There was a bottom?

[wake me up on 10/15]
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Old 08-26-2015, 05:31 PM   #7
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Bottom? There was a bottom?

[wake me up on 10/15]
If you look close, there is a bottom every day. And that is especially true if you listen to the CNBC talking heads.
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Old 08-26-2015, 05:38 PM   #8
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I used some dividend money from one account that were sitting in cash and used it to increase my position in SDLP. Of course it immediately dropped over 12% today right after I bought it.
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Old 08-26-2015, 05:43 PM   #9
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A one-day recovery and we declare the bottom already? What about tomorrow?

I hate having to keep buying every time the market drops until I find that bottom. I do not have that much cash. Guys like Mulligan just keep on selling, more than you can shake a stick at.

Gotta save my cash for when posters here cry uncle.
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Old 08-26-2015, 05:43 PM   #10
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I used some dividend money from one account that were sitting in cash and used it to increase my position in SDLP. Of course it immediately dropped over 12% today right after I bought it.
There was something messed up with that drop. Seadrill was actually up 2% and Seadrill Partners was down 13%. I am still trying to process what this means. I bought 1000 shares at 8.58 which was not even near the low of the day (I think it touched 7.97). It is thinly traded though...a lot of times the bid/ask is 5 or 10 cents apart. I am 73% confident it will trade in the mid 9's sometime in the next week, which was where I planned to sell it. I was 90% confident of that earlier today :-)
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Old 08-26-2015, 05:57 PM   #11
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Yep, bought at the bottom, bought at the top, and bought at points in-between.
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Old 08-26-2015, 06:07 PM   #12
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Didn't buy at the very bottom and didn't sell at the very top, but I have the exact same stock positions I had before August 20 and yet my account has $6,500 more cash in it (and no I didn't write a check or get a dividend).

I guess you don't have to buy at the bottom or sell at the top to win the game, as long as you don't play the game too often.

Congrats this is a great result. I sat there Monday in disbelief that my RPG fund was down so much, I couldn't understand how such a gap from the underlying securities could have existed and failed to buy. I only time my small money except in 2008 when I felt overwhelming need to leave market so what made you buy back in versus wait more?


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Old 08-26-2015, 06:26 PM   #13
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Congrats this is a great result. I sat there Monday in disbelief that my RPG fund was down so much, I couldn't understand how such a gap from the underlying securities could have existed and failed to buy. I only time my small money except in 2008 when I felt overwhelming need to leave market so what made you buy back in versus wait more?


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I didn't buy back in, I bought with cash then sold the same day (and next day for the other trade). What made me buy was the huge drop in two stocks I track like a hawk, Apple and Gilead. I thought it was a computer error when I saw Apple for $95 and Gilead for $86 (nobody I chat with got it for that low though). These are rare times when you can buy into something with very low risk of losing out on the trade. They come up now and then but not often. Always nice to have a little money set aside to quickly jump on them. This has been made easy by saving accounts and short term bonds paying near zero (so you can just leave your money in actual cash and not lose out much vs having it tied up in a short bond)
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Old 08-26-2015, 07:49 PM   #14
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I bought into a fund that I wished I had bought a year ago. I got it at Sept 2014's price on Monday. Missed yesterday's drop, but close enough.
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Old 08-26-2015, 07:50 PM   #15
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There is a stock I have that you would be VERY happy if you bought it yesterday. It pops 41% today.

No, I did not buy it recently. The pop was the result of a takeover announced today. I had it for a few years, sold most of it early this year as the fundamental deteriorated (good thing I did), and kept just a bit as "souvenir".

This takeover with a huge premium happened a couple of times before with stocks I had. One time, I fortuitously bought it only a month earlier. Corporate takeovers are huge risks, or chances depending on how one views it, for insider trading. The SEC watches out for any suspicious trade prior to any takeover. Wonder how effective they are.
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Old 08-26-2015, 08:34 PM   #16
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I'm not a market timer, but I am mindful of Warren Buffett's maxim to be greedy when others are fearful.

I did accelerate about 2/3 of my normal monthly purchases to this morning. About 10 days earlier than normal. About 50% was ETFs which traded at the open, the other 50%was in funds so those will trade at the end of the day.

If we get another big drop, I will accelerate october's as well.
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Old 08-26-2015, 09:04 PM   #17
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A one-day recovery and we declare the bottom already? What about tomorrow?

I hate having to keep buying every time the market drops until I find that bottom. I do not have that much cash. Guys like Mulligan just keep on selling, more than you can shake a stick at.

Gotta save my cash for when posters here cry uncle.

I cry like a baby NW, but the tiny 10k dump is all I could do because of tax reasons. I did buy 200 shares NGHCZ of Monday. But that is just another lowly preferred stock though yielding 8.25% when I bought. No testosterone trades though!


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Old 08-26-2015, 09:31 PM   #18
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Can bet your keyboard buttons I bought some yesterday and probably more tomorrow still discounted.

Could of believed I knew something but I really didn't just got lucky. See I sold a chunk somehow just before this correction few weeks ago. Complete luck, but I"LL TAKE IT!!

Keep shaking that tree so more deals come out.
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Old 08-26-2015, 09:54 PM   #19
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I thought it was a computer error when I saw Apple for $95 and Gilead for $86 (nobody I chat with got it for that low though). These are rare times when you can buy into something with very low risk of losing out on the trade.
I caught AAPL at 96.50 with a limit order I put in at like 4 am monday. I had gotten up early in the am, and just wanted to see what the shanghai closed at early monday. When I saw that it was down again, for another 8.5%, I thought this has got to create some opportunities in the NYSE. So I chose a few positions in sectors that I needed to add to, and put in some really low offers. I hit that one almost at the bottom. That was a rare instance to see something like that happen.
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Old 08-26-2015, 10:13 PM   #20
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The bottom was too high for me.
I put in low orders, but they were too low and never got triggered.....
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