Did our market timers buy at the bottom?

[Midpack]

Of course there may be another, and another, or twelve, or not.

 

[mpeirce]

I did just pull the trigger on a Roth conversion.

So there is a pretty good chance the market will go much lower in short order!

As to our main portfolio - not a lot of "excess cash", so no buying.

 

[Moemg]

I have to admit I am lousy at buying at the bottom but I am great at selling at the top . I just watch for W2R's whee and I skim some profits . This has worked great for a few years .

 

[Fermion]

Didn't buy at the very bottom and didn't sell at the very top, but I have the exact same stock positions I had before August 20 and yet my account has $6,500 more cash in it (and no I didn't write a check or get a dividend).

I guess you don't have to buy at the bottom or sell at the top to win the game, as long as you don't play the game too often.

 

[aja8888]

I missed the flash drop but managed to pick up a few shares of XOM at 70 and KMI at 31. I also added to my SCHD at just below 36. All are long term holds.

I'm not schooled enough on option strategies and only sold covered calls in years gone by so I don't play that game.

 

[audreyh1]

Bottom? There was a bottom?

[wake me up on 10/15]

 

[aja8888]

Bottom? There was a bottom?

[wake me up on 10/15]

If you look close, there is a bottom every day. And that is especially true if you listen to the CNBC talking heads.

 

[aaronc879]

I used some dividend money from one account that were sitting in cash and used it to increase my position in SDLP. Of course it immediately dropped over 12% today right after I bought it.

 

[NW-Bound]

A one-day recovery and we declare the bottom already? What about tomorrow?

I hate having to keep buying every time the market drops until I find that bottom. I do not have that much cash. Guys like Mulligan just keep on selling, more than you can shake a stick at.

Gotta save my cash for when posters here cry uncle.

 

[Fermion]

I used some dividend money from one account that were sitting in cash and used it to increase my position in SDLP. Of course it immediately dropped over 12% today right after I bought it.

There was something messed up with that drop. Seadrill was actually up 2% and Seadrill Partners was down 13%. I am still trying to process what this means. I bought 1000 shares at 8.58 which was not even near the low of the day (I think it touched 7.97). It is thinly traded though...a lot of times the bid/ask is 5 or 10 cents apart. I am 73% confident it will trade in the mid 9's sometime in the next week, which was where I planned to sell it. I was 90% confident of that earlier today

 

[LOL!]

Yep, bought at the bottom, bought at the top, and bought at points in-between.

 

[Rothman]

Didn't buy at the very bottom and didn't sell at the very top, but I have the exact same stock positions I had before August 20 and yet my account has $6,500 more cash in it (and no I didn't write a check or get a dividend).

I guess you don't have to buy at the bottom or sell at the top to win the game, as long as you don't play the game too often.

Congrats this is a great result. I sat there Monday in disbelief that my RPG fund was down so much, I couldn't understand how such a gap from the underlying securities could have existed and failed to buy. I only time my small money except in 2008 when I felt overwhelming need to leave market so what made you buy back in versus wait more?


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[Fermion]

Congrats this is a great result. I sat there Monday in disbelief that my RPG fund was down so much, I couldn't understand how such a gap from the underlying securities could have existed and failed to buy. I only time my small money except in 2008 when I felt overwhelming need to leave market so what made you buy back in versus wait more?


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I didn't buy back in, I bought with cash then sold the same day (and next day for the other trade). What made me buy was the huge drop in two stocks I track like a hawk, Apple and Gilead. I thought it was a computer error when I saw Apple for $95 and Gilead for $86 (nobody I chat with got it for that low though). These are rare times when you can buy into something with very low risk of losing out on the trade. They come up now and then but not often. Always nice to have a little money set aside to quickly jump on them. This has been made easy by saving accounts and short term bonds paying near zero (so you can just leave your money in actual cash and not lose out much vs having it tied up in a short bond)

 

[marko]

I bought into a fund that I wished I had bought a year ago. I got it at Sept 2014's price on Monday. Missed yesterday's drop, but close enough.

 

[NW-Bound]

There is a stock I have that you would be VERY happy if you bought it yesterday. It pops 41% today.

No, I did not buy it recently. The pop was the result of a takeover announced today. I had it for a few years, sold most of it early this year as the fundamental deteriorated (good thing I did), and kept just a bit as "souvenir".

This takeover with a huge premium happened a couple of times before with stocks I had. One time, I fortuitously bought it only a month earlier. Corporate takeovers are huge risks, or chances depending on how one views it, for insider trading. The SEC watches out for any suspicious trade prior to any takeover. Wonder how effective they are.

 

[Closet_Gamer]

I'm not a market timer, but I am mindful of Warren Buffett's maxim to be greedy when others are fearful.

I did accelerate about 2/3 of my normal monthly purchases to this morning. About 10 days earlier than normal. About 50% was ETFs which traded at the open, the other 50%was in funds so those will trade at the end of the day.

If we get another big drop, I will accelerate october's as well.

 

[Mulligan]

A one-day recovery and we declare the bottom already? What about tomorrow?

I hate having to keep buying every time the market drops until I find that bottom. I do not have that much cash. Guys like Mulligan just keep on selling, more than you can shake a stick at.

Gotta save my cash for when posters here cry uncle.

I cry like a baby NW, but the tiny 10k dump is all I could do because of tax reasons. I did buy 200 shares NGHCZ of Monday. But that is just another lowly preferred stock though yielding 8.25% when I bought. No testosterone trades though!


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[project2501]

Can bet your keyboard buttons I bought some yesterday and probably more tomorrow still discounted.

Could of believed I knew something but I really didn't just got lucky. See I sold a chunk somehow just before this correction few weeks ago. Complete luck, but I"LL TAKE IT!!

Keep shaking that tree so more deals come out.

 

[hesperus]

I thought it was a computer error when I saw Apple for $95 and Gilead for $86 (nobody I chat with got it for that low though). These are rare times when you can buy into something with very low risk of losing out on the trade.

I caught AAPL at 96.50 with a limit order I put in at like 4 am monday. I had gotten up early in the am, and just wanted to see what the shanghai closed at early monday. When I saw that it was down again, for another 8.5%, I thought this has got to create some opportunities in the NYSE. So I chose a few positions in sectors that I needed to add to, and put in some really low offers. I hit that one almost at the bottom. That was a rare instance to see something like that happen.

 

[Sunset]

The bottom was too high for me.
I put in low orders, but they were too low and never got triggered.....

 

[donheff]

If I am basically at my AA (not already heavy on equities) I try to buy some total stock or S&P index shares late in the day of a major drop. Those are my only forays into market timing and have worked so far. I shifted $100K on Monday and hopefully caught a near bottom. But I recognize that this is really a fools game so I don't over do it. No more than I can afford to risk for shits and giggles. I didn't do this during the big 2008 recession drop or I would have gotten slammed - although, even in a worst case like that, I could afford to wait out the return to previous highs before needing to sell the risked funds based on history. I took the risk this week but am still concerned that we could easily drop another 5-10% even without major additional world crises. If we get back to where we were at the beginning of this recent slide I will quickly move the 100K back into the bond fund it came from to get harvest my little gains and get back to my preferred AA - not waiting to match the previous market high.

 

[NW-Bound]

.... I did buy 200 shares NGHCZ of Monday. But that is just another lowly preferred stock though yielding 8.25% when I bought.

I looked and this started to trade only a few days ago. The yield is awfully good, and the issuing corp, an insurance company, appears to have stable financial standing. What's going on here, as I do not believe in risk-free rewards?

I have thought of preferred stocks in the past, but I guess I like the up/down of common stocks, which make life less boring. So, I did not spend that much time researching the universe of this asset class. But the yield above makes it more attractive than, say, SPIA annuities, despite the obvious higher risks.

PS. I could not find out whether the dividend is cumulative, but then perhaps I did not know where to look.

 

[Mulligan]

I looked and this started to trade only a few days ago. The yield is awfully good, and the issuing corp, an insurance company, appears to have stable financial standing. What's going on here, as I do not believe in risk-free rewards?

I have thought of preferred stocks in the past, but I guess I like the up/down of common stocks, which make life less boring. So, I did not spend that much time researching the universe of this asset class. But the yield above makes it more attractive than, say, SPIA annuities, despite the obvious higher risks.

Their interest coverage looks healthy so for a higher yield so it seemed worth a shot. My best guess is this....It is currently in that 30 day premarket selling window before it gets its official ticker symbol. I think it got caught in the market downdraft as underwriters are pushing the shares out to the market. Here is what made it interesting. Its yield is higher than the preferreds of the company which makes absolutely no sense. As you know the debt notes are higher on the pecking order over the regular preferreds. Plus the preferreds are noncumulative.
Yes the note is a 40 year one which presents yield risk on the long end, but heck the preferreds are perpetual.


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[Andre1969]

I bought a few shares of Netflix for around $93/sh the other day. I think it's up to around $116 now.

I initially bought a few shares back in late 2013. At the time it was around $342/sh, but earlier this year it did a 7:1 split, so effectively, that initial purchase is like $49/sh.

But, just to show how often it's best to just buy and hold...I had initially bought some Netflix back in early 2012, for $113.47. For some reason I sold a few months later, for $110.07. I can't remember why I bailed out so quickly...normally I'm not *that* flaky!

If I had just sat on it, my cost basis would've been $16.21/sh ($113.47/7 shares). Sometimes the best course of action is to do nothing at all!

 

[NW-Bound]

Sometimes the best course of action is to do nothing at all!

Yes. I have some stocks like that. And just as often, I wish I got out sooner. Such is the problem with holding stocks instead of a diversified MF or ETF.