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Dirty Market-timing billionaires!
Old 09-24-2019, 01:49 PM   #1
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Dirty Market-timing billionaires!

I guess they’re not buy/hold/rebalance...

A majority of ultra-wealthy expect a recession and are hunkering down https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/24/a-ma...pyToPasteboard

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That is according to a UBS survey of 360 global family offices with an average family wealth of $1.2 billion. Results showed 55% of family offices see a recession by 2020, and to mitigate risks, 45% are already adjusting their portfolios, including shifting to bonds and real estate, while 42% are increasing their cash reserves.
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Old 09-24-2019, 02:29 PM   #2
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Old 09-24-2019, 03:51 PM   #3
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"Dirty Market-timing billionaires!"

Some will say the billionaires are dirty even if they do not time the market.
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Old 09-24-2019, 04:10 PM   #4
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Billionaires are pretty smart:
https://philebersole.wordpress.com/2...w-meritocracy/
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Old 09-24-2019, 04:35 PM   #5
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I don't know about "dirty" but why would you think these family office managers are any better at timing the market than anyone else is?
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Old 09-24-2019, 04:46 PM   #6
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Well after 10 years of the bull market, I'm certainly taking some profits out of stocks and putting them into cash/bonds. If that makes me a dirty market timer, I'm OK with that.
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Old 09-24-2019, 04:52 PM   #7
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Well after 10 years of the bull market, I'm certainly taking some profits out of stocks and putting them into cash/bonds. If that makes me a dirty market timer, I'm OK with that.
Ditto. Doing it slowly, just taking all Int/Div/cap gains in cash and then buying CD's in the tIRA and spending in the after tax account.

Slowly got to 55/45, slowly getting to 50/50.
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Old 09-24-2019, 06:08 PM   #8
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I don't know about "dirty" but why would you think these family office managers are any better at timing the market than anyone else is?
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... That is according to a UBS survey of 360 global family offices with an average family wealth of $1.2 billion. ...
Maybe they started with an average family wealth of $2.4 billion?


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Old 09-24-2019, 06:19 PM   #9
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... That is according to a UBS survey of 360 global family offices with an average family wealth of $1.2 billion. ...
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Maybe they started with an average family wealth of $2.4 billion?

-ERD50


If the billionaires do such a poor job of market timing and lose much money, that saves lawmakers the trouble of taxing them to bring down their wealth.

Hmmm... Where does that wealth go? To the buy-and-hold non-billionaire stock owners, no doubt.
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Old 09-24-2019, 06:58 PM   #10
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Dirty?

Judging others against what standard? Let's not be victims...
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Old 09-24-2019, 07:53 PM   #11
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Old 09-24-2019, 08:59 PM   #12
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Some of us are joking, not mocking.

Yeah, that...
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Old 09-24-2019, 10:02 PM   #13
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why would you think these family office managers are any better at timing the market than anyone else is?
You're missing the point - when they do things, it AFFECTS the market! And they know it.
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Old 09-25-2019, 06:22 AM   #14
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Friday Sep 20, after being 100% equity growth and gaining 24.7% YTD, I got "that feeling" that the market was overdue for a major correction. I put all 100% of my 401K into income securities to ride out the storm. I don't so much call this profit taking, as much as I call it profit protecting, and preserving what I couldn't last year at this time.
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Old 09-25-2019, 06:30 AM   #15
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Perhaps we need an official referee to distinguish when it's dirty market timing and when it's prudent re-balancing.

Any volunteers?
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Old 09-25-2019, 07:47 AM   #16
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Perhaps we need an official referee to distinguish when it's dirty market timing and when it's prudent re-balancing.

Any volunteers?
Simple, If their trade history shows it to be inline with a repetitive trading pattern, it is rebalancing. How one would get that info is left to one's imagination.

If it turns out to be rebalancing, it wouldn't make headlines, would it?

p.s. I was told by one advisor who wanted to become my advisor, suggested I should take $ off the table now. A correction is eminent. That was 2+ years ago. Glad I didn't listen to him.
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Old 09-25-2019, 08:32 AM   #17
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If you read into the percentages...they say a "majority" but then they mention...

"That is according to a UBS survey of 360 global family offices with an average family wealth of $1.2 billion. Results showed 55% of family offices see a recession by 2020, and to mitigate risks, 45% are already adjusting their portfolios, including shifting to bonds and real estate, while 42% are increasing their cash reserves."

Soo, it's been a long time since I took math class...and numbers is hard... but enlighten me...

is 42 > 50 ?? Answer NO. So then how in the heck is 42% the majority ? Anyways, end rant. Attention grabbing headline, that is false and misleading . I'm more upset with the editor of this article than the bot that wrote it.

If 42% of billionaires are moving to more cash, then that means 58% are not. SO the title of the article should be "The majority of billionaires are not moving to cash" Or am I wrong ?

EDIT: Okay...so Maybe the title is accurate but hardly. The majority is EXPECTING a recession...


Then it goes on to lie again stating:

"More than half of the super-rich around the world are already preparing for a recession." No, actually only 45% are doing something.?
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Old 09-25-2019, 08:47 AM   #18
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Perhaps we need an official referee to distinguish when it's dirty market timing and when it's prudent re-balancing.

Any volunteers?
When I'm King of the World, I'll make those distinctions.
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Headline: SUN BURNING OUT! WORLD TO END! Story: In 5 billion years
Old 09-25-2019, 08:54 AM   #19
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Headline: SUN BURNING OUT! WORLD TO END! Story: In 5 billion years

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If it turns out to be rebalancing, it wouldn't make headlines, would it?
I dunno. In the olden days, the headline was what sold newspapers. I guess today it's "what generates the clicks". Plenty of mundane stories spark salacious, but misleading, headlines.
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Old 09-25-2019, 09:01 AM   #20
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... If 42% of billionaires are moving to more cash, then that means 58% are not. SO the title of the article should be "The majority of billionaires are not moving to cash" Or am I wrong ? ...
You're wrong.

The reason you're wrong is that you think the purpose of the headline is to provide information. It's not. The purpose of the headline is to generate clicks.

That's the reason that 99% of investment "news" stories are garbage. Our objective in reading them is to become better informed. The authors, however, do not share that objective. In many cases, too, they don't know as much about investing as most of us do. I tell the students in my investment class to just ignore this stuff.
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