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Old 03-29-2016, 06:47 AM   #21
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I can only hope. Lots of things need fixin' on the house, and contractors aren't returning calls like they did in 2008. I called three different driveway pavers, with what is at least a $10K job, and none of them called back.

Whereas in 2008/09, when we also had a lot of work done, the phone wouldn't stop ringing.
Even back then there were some guys who were not particularly responsive. It seems that they are the first ones to complain about how slow things were.
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Old 03-29-2016, 10:25 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by Amethyst View Post
I can only hope. Lots of things need fixin' on the house, and contractors aren't returning calls like they did in 2008. I called three different driveway pavers, with what is at least a $10K job, and none of them called back.

Whereas in 2008/09, when we also had a lot of work done, the phone wouldn't stop ringing.

That's the reason why my husband and I are DYIers in the first place. In Silicon Valley back in the 90s, if we need to do something less than $10k, they don't even bother. They told me they looked at the house value in our neighborhood and thought nothing of quoting $100k as fair.


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Old 03-29-2016, 01:52 PM   #23
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To tally our favored recession indicators so far, we have:

Spiking RV sales (more research needed on boats and yachts)
Butter in Bangladesh
The Superbowl (Is this AFC vs NFC winners?)
Magic 8 Ball says "Maybe So!"
The Contractor Calls-Returned Frequency Index.
Oh, and I have a 74.3% confidence level that Master Blaster agreed with me that this has been an unusually long bull market historically, which might mean something statistically.

What else? The reliable "My nephew and/or shoe shine professional gave me stock tips alarm"? I will go out on a limb and say that any of these are at least as good as the Fed's prediction in 2007 of what was about to happen.
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Old 03-29-2016, 06:35 PM   #24
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The only market predictor that ever worked for me was beaver cheese futures.

As a data point, we bought an RV for $9k in 2003, kept it 10 years or so, and sold it for $7k. But it was an Argosy Airstream born in 1976!
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Old 03-29-2016, 07:24 PM   #25
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Beaver cheese... Never heard of it but my Magic 8 Ball says "You may rely on it" so it goes on the list! :-)
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Old 03-29-2016, 07:43 PM   #26
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It's not clear what you're saying about the RV industry.

Yes, the retail market is up right now, but it (and the marine industry) both suck business wise. The downturn in the market of 2008 took out many, many RV dealerships and there are relatively few dealerships in most of the U.S.

As far as the companies: There are relatively few manufacturers traded on the open stock market. Forest River is another Berkshire Company, and they're a giant. Hedge funds also own a number of "private" companies.

I have a year old fifth wheel trailer, and we keep it stored in the mountains. We are seeing a turnover of campers, with many dying off and younger families coming into the RV world.

I still cannot get over so many people selling their houses and personal belongings to hit the road full time for a few years in RV's. They're very brave people. And I never hear one bad word online about the "full timer" lifestyle.
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Old 03-29-2016, 07:53 PM   #27
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Beaver cheese... Never heard of it but my Magic 8 Ball says "You may rely on it" so it goes on the list! :-)

That's an old joke on the forum, I think started by Brewer. A balm for tinfoil hat times.
Did you ever see the Magic 8 ball app for smartphones? We entertained ourselves for far too long with it.
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Old 03-29-2016, 08:17 PM   #28
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They actually did laugh at Warren Buffet for awhile. Remember when he had lost touch with new economy because he wouldn't invest in hot technology stocks? Yep, old Warren had really lost his touch back then....
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Does this chart indicate anything unsettling to you?
Old 03-29-2016, 10:06 PM   #29
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Does this chart indicate anything unsettling to you?

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It's not clear what you're saying about the RV industry.
Really only that, since the 1970s, peak times for the RV industry is one little data point that correlates nicely with recessions within a year or two thereafter. Others are saying correlation is not causation and why they believe this time is different or that there are no data points at all that can ever under any circumstances provide clues about the future. I, however, think the business cycle is real and that, for many decades, recessions have happened consistently every 8 years on average and last an average of about 18 months. I think we're getting due for one while others here do not think so or prefer not to guess, which is fine. I think it's ok to enjoy watching the big ol' economy gyrate and guestimate where it is going next, without necessarily messing with one's portfolio in response or putting grandma's nest egg long in beaver cheese futures (Hee! That's a keeper. For this recession, gimme a load a pork bellies with a side of beaver cheese). That's entertainment, I suppose.
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Old 03-30-2016, 03:44 PM   #30
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I think it may be like toe jam, only different. But what do I know? And why is there a futures market for it?

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Beaver cheese... Never heard of it but my Magic 8 Ball says "You may rely on it" so it goes on the list! :-)
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Old 03-30-2016, 04:00 PM   #31
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but my understanding is that this time it's different.
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Old 03-30-2016, 04:03 PM   #32
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The only market predictor that ever worked for me was beaver cheese futures.
That's Venezuelan Beaver Cheese, I'll have you know.
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Old 03-30-2016, 05:53 PM   #33
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That's Venezuelan Beaver Cheese, I'll have you know.
Only the genuine stuff.
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Old 03-30-2016, 05:58 PM   #34
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How could we forget
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