Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Does this chart indicate anything unsettling to you?
Old 03-28-2016, 02:01 PM   #1
Full time employment: Posting here.
Markola's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 545
Does this chart indicate anything unsettling to you?

I heard on the radio that RV sales are going through the roof, so I Googled some sales figures over time:
The Recreation Vehicle Industry Association: Historical Glance

And even more bad news?
http://m.southbendtribune.com/news/b....html?mode=jqm

I'm not dissing, nor do I much care about one way or the other, the RV lifestyle. But when RV numbers peak, history shows, well, what do you think history shows?
__________________

__________________
Markola is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 03-28-2016, 02:13 PM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 11,964
It shows that gas prices are low again more than anything else. In addition:
  • baby boomers are retiring in big numbers and a lot of them want to retire traveling in RVs, so a prime market for RVs now comprises a bigger share of the population.
  • the economy is doing well, which gives positive job numbers.
  • the US housing market is rebounding
What were you expecting it to mean?
__________________

__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 60% equity funds / 35% bond funds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is online now   Reply With Quote
Does this chart indicate anything unsettling to you?
Old 03-28-2016, 03:21 PM   #3
Full time employment: Posting here.
Markola's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 545
Does this chart indicate anything unsettling to you?

Well, it's just a hunch about the future with some numbers behind it, which is what this particular sub-forum seems for. Your points are very valid but another narrative based on other data points is starting to weave together in my mind as:

- It's getting to be a decade since the start of the last recession.

- Consumer debt spent for luxuries (to wit, the ultimate big ticket American luxury item - RVs) is trending way up again and, historically, that can mean overconfidence.

- The rest of the world's economy is anemic and US corporate profits are really not that stellar.

- Large cap stocks are ahead of small caps lately, which often happens near the end of a cycle.

- PE Ratios are high historically and interest rates have been kept super low, so is there much room left for this bull to run?

- Some of the fizz in stock markets in the last few years has been provided through stock buybacks, not real growth, and those programs are winding down.

I admit to only a hunch but I just can't ignore some of the signals I'm sensing at this point in the long bull market we've enjoyed in stocks and bonds. I am not saying that I will do anything about it, but the RV boom feels Great Gatsby-ish to me.
__________________
Markola is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-28-2016, 03:28 PM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
MasterBlaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,359
I would use this RV indicator to short the stock market. You can't lose !

Personally though, I believe in the Superbowl indicator.

or the Bangladesh Butter production indicator which suggests a very strong buying opportunity:

What does Bangladesh, India, have to do with the U.S. stock market? Plenty, according to some pundits. Using their calculations, taking the change in butter production in Bangladesh and multiplying it by two will give you the exact percentage by which the S&P 500 Index will change in the year ahead. Based on that, a 5% increase in butter production leads to a 10% hike in the S&P. The same statistics are believed to hold true on the downside.

Get ready to buy. Our most reliable technical indicator—one that has historically been 99% accurate—is suggesting that stocks are poised for a major breakout.
Bangladesh butter production surged in February, as moderating grain prices allowed Bangladeshi dairy farmers to boost production by getting higher milk yields from their existing stock of cows. Meanwhile, butter production in neighboring India dropped significantly in February, as a change in government farm subsidies forced Indian dairy farmers to cull their herds. With Bangladeshi butter production set to rise further, we should be looking at a massive rally in the S&P 500 throughout March and April.


http://www.bitlanders.com/blogs/the-...ys-buy/2866536
__________________
MasterBlaster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-28-2016, 04:06 PM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 1,453
The only sensible way to buy one is to buy it used. WE are the 3rd owner of a motorhome that while it is 23 yo only has 50k miles on it. Each time the owner sells it they get half the price. So the first owner paid 56 for it new, the next paid 28 and we paid 14. Now it's worth not much more then half. YOu can get crazy and spend a fortune on those things.
__________________
Teacher Terry is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-28-2016, 04:07 PM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 11,964
Quote:
Originally Posted by Markola View Post
Well, it's just a hunch about the future with some numbers behind it, which is what this particular sub-forum seems for. Your points are very valid but another narrative based on other data points is starting to weave together in my mind as:

- It's getting to be a decade since the start of the last recession.

- Consumer debt spent for luxuries (to wit, the ultimate big ticket American luxury item - RVs) is trending way up again and, historically, that can mean overconfidence.

- The rest of the world's economy is anemic and US corporate profits are really not that stellar.

- Large cap stocks are ahead of small caps lately, which often happens near the end of a cycle.

- PE Ratios are high historically and interest rates have been kept super low, so is there much room left for this bull to run?

- Some of the fizz in stock markets in the last few years has been provided through stock buybacks, not real growth, and those programs are winding down.

I admit to only a hunch but I just can't ignore some of the signals I'm sensing at this point in the long bull market we've enjoyed in stocks and bonds. I am not saying that I will do anything about it, but the RV boom feels Great Gatsby-ish to me.
If you want to time the markets, RV sales are as good an indicator as anything..
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 60% equity funds / 35% bond funds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-28-2016, 04:18 PM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Gone4Good's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 5,381
I'd guess it indicates that it's a bad time to buy an RV.
__________________
Retired early, traveling perpetually.
Gone4Good is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-28-2016, 04:19 PM   #8
Moderator Emeritus
aja8888's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: The Woodlands, TX
Posts: 7,141
Quote:
Originally Posted by Teacher Terry View Post
The only sensible way to buy one is to buy it used. WE are the 3rd owner of a motorhome that while it is 23 yo only has 50k miles on it. Each time the owner sells it they get half the price. So the first owner paid 56 for it new, the next paid 28 and we paid 14. Now it's worth not much more then half. YOu can get crazy and spend a fortune on those things.
Good friend of mine recently bought a 28' Ford powered RV that is 26 years old for $5,000. It has 7 new Michelin tires and new brakes on it and the engine/trans has 44,000. The inside was rough, but all the gas appliances work.

After pouring another $5K into it (fixed A/C, new counter tops, window blinds, mattresses, and a whole lot of tidbits), he has a pretty nice unit.

I'm sure he could sell it for $5,000 when he's tired of fixing things on it.
__________________
......."Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face." -- philosopher Mike Tyson.
aja8888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-28-2016, 04:33 PM   #9
Full time employment: Posting here.
Markola's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 545
Excellent! They laughed at Edison, Jobs, Einstein and Buffet (well not Buffet so much) too so I am surely onto something! Eh, maybe not but my point is that the best investors know that the herd is usually, exactly and with great precision, wrong. So when the herd is focused on buying brand new RVs as one symptom of Americans generally running up needless debt, well, since the 1970s trouble follows within a couple of years if you follow those numbers and recall the years with bear markets. No one knows, of course, and I am prepared either way as a diversified index fund investor first, and a compulsive armchair macro economics prognosticator second.
__________________
Markola is offline   Reply With Quote
Does this chart indicate anything unsettling to you?
Old 03-28-2016, 04:37 PM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Fedup's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Southern Cal
Posts: 2,930
Does this chart indicate anything unsettling to you?

Interesting. My friend just told me to buy an RV like her to travel. I'm never into RV. I like camping though. RVs bubble?


Sent from my iPad using Early Retirement Forum
__________________
When I post IIRC, that means going by memory. Google is your friend for facts. Stop being a lazy bum, I can't do all the googling for you. I'm lazy too. LOL
Fedup is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-28-2016, 04:38 PM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
MasterBlaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,359
Yes, you can count on a recession sometime in the future.

Besides the things you posted, perhaps RV sales are driven in part by masses of Boomers retiring and hitting the road. Did you normalize your indicator by the population of RV-aged people ?
__________________
MasterBlaster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-28-2016, 04:56 PM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,074
Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterBlaster View Post
Besides the things you posted, perhaps RV sales are driven in part by masses of Boomers retiring and hitting the road. Did you normalize your indicator by the population of RV-aged people ?
Another factor, sales in the past few years reflect a pent up demand due to a lack of supply. RV production came to a virtual standstill in 2008/09 and many RV manufacturers went out of business.
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-28-2016, 04:58 PM   #13
gone traveling
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,135
It absolutely predicts with high accuracy that the market with either go up or go down from here.

Personally, I find my magic 8 ball to be equally accurate, plus it's portable.

My sources say yes.

🎱🎱🎱🎱
__________________
papadad111 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-28-2016, 05:01 PM   #14
Moderator Emeritus
aja8888's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: The Woodlands, TX
Posts: 7,141
The oil and gas business swallowed up a lot of them also as migrant oil workers could not find housing in the Dakota's, Wyoming, Colorado and West Texas. Now there are thousands of units abandoned/for sale in these areas an one can find a good deal rather cheaply.
__________________
......."Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face." -- philosopher Mike Tyson.
aja8888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-28-2016, 05:04 PM   #15
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,412
Quote:
Originally Posted by Markola View Post

- It's getting to be a decade since the start of the last recession.

- Consumer debt spent for luxuries (to wit, the ultimate big ticket American luxury item - RVs) is trending way up again and, historically, that can mean overconfidence.
Just two comments WTR to your data points. First, the amount of time since the onset of the last recession has no bearing on the current state of the economu or the onset of the next recession. Second, the household total debt service ration - the % of income households are spending on their current debt - is the lowest it's been in a half century. Here's a chart that shows it since 1980



and here's a blogpost explaining the number. Households have the capacity to borrow for their new RVs and much more.
__________________
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-28-2016, 05:15 PM   #16
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
MasterBlaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,359
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelB View Post
First, the amount of time since the onset of the last recession has no bearing on the current state of the economu or the onset of the next recession.
Some people believe that timelines of recessions and non-recessions can be stochastically characterized. If that's the case then the long growth span since the last recession gives one pause as being on the tails of the growth time distribution.
__________________
MasterBlaster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-28-2016, 07:47 PM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
JPatrick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 2,494
Quote:
Originally Posted by aja8888 View Post
The oil and gas business swallowed up a lot of them also as migrant oil workers could not find housing in the Dakota's, Wyoming, Colorado and West Texas. Now there are thousands of units abandoned/for sale in these areas an one can find a good deal rather cheaply.
Yup, come on down (or up) the deals can't be beat.
__________________
JPatrick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2016, 01:17 AM   #18
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 1,471
I have a friend forced into early retirement by the 2008 recession who has just trained and certified as a mobile RV repair guy. He and his wife sold their California home and are somewhere in the country in their new/used RV. This is good news for him.


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
__________________
EastWest Gal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2016, 06:24 AM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Amethyst's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 5,874
I can only hope. Lots of things need fixin' on the house, and contractors aren't returning calls like they did in 2008. I called three different driveway pavers, with what is at least a $10K job, and none of them called back.

Whereas in 2008/09, when we also had a lot of work done, the phone wouldn't stop ringing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Markola View Post
trouble follows within a couple of years
__________________
If you understood everything I say, you'd be me ~ Miles Davis
'There is only one success to be able to spend your life in your own way. Christopher Morley.
Amethyst is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-29-2016, 06:45 AM   #20
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 16,406
Does this chart indicate anything unsettling to you?

Nope.
__________________

__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
pb4uski is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
How does Pension and Off-Chart Spending Impact Numbers? ace_club FIRECalc support 2 01-22-2016 05:26 PM
My Records Indicate... mickeyd Other topics 20 08-12-2009 05:18 PM
Does anyone know anything common law marriage? accountingsucks FIRE and Money 35 08-21-2006 09:51 PM
Anything, ANYTHING Cheap Out There? Craig FIRE and Money 15 01-06-2006 07:28 PM
Does Canada Stand For Anything? Eagle43 Other topics 12 03-01-2005 10:23 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:31 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.