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Don't you just love biotechnology stocks?
Old 04-17-2011, 03:25 PM   #1
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Don't you just love biotechnology stocks?

Anyhow, I imagine if Nords can be thinking about messing around with Hawaii's Central Pacific Bank, I figure I can mess around with a bio-tech or two.

I have done quite well with the one bio-tech that I bought. And, I really do believe that it will double in price in the next year or so. (I'm not quite sure what this belief is based on--except from what I read on Seeking Alpha). I don't believe there is much risk in this stock as per it going down. It has a product that has passed all the FDA tests (or, whatever tests it needed to pass).

But, get this: here comes along another bio-tech which I feel is for sure a riskier bet, but maybe has a chance to be a five-bagger in the next two years or just go bust. This company's product has only passed the phase 1 test. (Actually, I recently just missed passing my phase 1 test...again, but, that's a completely different story).

I'm still working (about 2/3 time) and figure to retire in two years. This is going to be (probably) my last wild dumb-sh*t investment ever so I plan to invest an unreasonable sum in one of these two stocks. I just can't quite figure out which one to invest in. I do own shares of both already. But, more is better...maybe?

Any thoughts?
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Old 04-17-2011, 05:01 PM   #2
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I do not have any bio tech stock right now.

But generally, I do love any stock that goes up. I hate stocks that go down.
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Old 04-17-2011, 07:01 PM   #3
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That is a gutsy move being so near to retirement .I would probably add some to stock one and look for a biotech mutual fund . I have Vanguard Health Care which is 9% Bio tech or you could go to Vegas at least they serve drinks as you lose your money .
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Old 04-17-2011, 07:50 PM   #4
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My answer depends on whether this is in your "play money" account (ie. you can afford to lose it all)

If so:
  • Buy both, half and half

If not:
  • Buy the one that is going up. If you don't know which one that is, Buy neither
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Old 04-17-2011, 09:11 PM   #5
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I've mostly gotten my clock cleaned with the bios over the years.
Still part of a class action suit from years ago that has actually paid out some decent cash.
I couldn't resist AMRN a few months ago and it has given me a quick double. My current plan is to sell half next week and sell May calls on the rest. The call premiums are out of this world at the moment.
One thing about the bios, they never bore you...Good Luck..
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Old 04-17-2011, 11:33 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redduck View Post
Anyhow, I imagine if Nords can be thinking about messing around with Hawaii's Central Pacific Bank, I figure I can mess around with a bio-tech or two.
Any thoughts?
Maybe I should emphasize that I started that thread to try to figure out why it's priced the way it is, and my conclusion is that it's not worth the money. The fundamentals aren't there (yet, maybe in a year or two) and the investor psychology is unpredictable.

Quote:
Originally Posted by redduck View Post
I have done quite well with the one bio-tech that I bought. And, I really do believe that it will double in price in the next year or so. (I'm not quite sure what this belief is based on--except from what I read on Seeking Alpha). I don't believe there is much risk in this stock as per it going down. It has a product that has passed all the FDA tests (or, whatever tests it needed to pass).
But, get this: here comes along another bio-tech which I feel is for sure a riskier bet, but maybe has a chance to be a five-bagger in the next two years or just go bust. This company's product has only passed the phase 1 test.
When you're using words like "not quite sure", "believe", "whatever", and "feel"... that's called "speculating". Maybe you should enjoy the testosterone-poisoned fling with what money you already have in those shares.

You could put your spare cash in a biotech index or focus on a dividend-paying ETF like DVY. But what it really seems you could stand to do is to figure out your asset allocation and invest according to that. If nothing else then focus on a spending goal 2-3 years away and put the money in a CD ladder.

At least the $25 blackjack table offers free drinks.
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Old 04-18-2011, 07:05 AM   #7
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Quote:
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I've mostly gotten my clock cleaned with the bios over the years.
Still part of a class action suit from years ago that has actually paid out some decent cash.
I couldn't resist AMRN a few months ago and it has given me a quick double. My current plan is to sell half next week and sell May calls on the rest. The call premiums are out of this world at the moment.
One thing about the bios, they never bore you...Good Luck..
Well don't that beat all..
The AMRN I mentioned last night is showing a 83% pop in the pre-market this morning.
Still planning to sell half and option the rest.
Some days you actually DO get the elevator..
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Old 04-19-2011, 07:40 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by Moemg View Post
That is a gutsy move being so near to retirement .I would probably add some to stock one and look for a biotech mutual fund . I have Vanguard Health Care which is 9% Bio tech or you could go to Vegas at least they serve drinks as you lose your money .
Moe:

I do own Vanguard Health Care: It's my fourth largest holding behind pssst....Wellesely (which unclemick turned into a pump and dump mutual fund) and TIPS and Vanguard Energy Fund. I also own a very little bit of IBB which is a biotech mutual fund.

However, I truly dislike Las Vegas and I never trust "free drinks." Actually, I drink very little and, in any case, I can afford to buy my own drinks.

Buying stock one is probably the most sensible (?) of the two stocks.
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Old 04-19-2011, 07:42 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by kumquat View Post
My answer depends on whether this is in your "play money" account (ie. you can afford to lose it all)

If so:
  • Buy both, half and half

If not:
  • Buy the one that is going up. If you don't know which one that is, Buy neither
Actually, this is pretty sound advice. Kumquat, did you mean it to be?
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Old 04-19-2011, 08:27 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Nords View Post
Maybe I should emphasize that I started that thread to try to figure out why it's priced the way it is, and my conclusion is that it's not worth the money. The fundamentals aren't there (yet, maybe in a year or two) and the investor psychology is unpredictable.


When you're using words like "not quite sure", "believe", "whatever", and "feel"... that's called "speculating". Maybe you should enjoy the testosterone-poisoned fling with what money you already have in those shares.

You could put your spare cash in a biotech index or focus on a dividend-paying ETF like DVY. But what it really seems you could stand to do is to figure out your asset allocation and invest according to that. If nothing else then focus on a spending goal 2-3 years away and put the money in a CD ladder.

At least the $25 blackjack table offers free drinks.
I did have an asset allocation plan, and it included DVY. Then something bad happened a few years ago (the market stumbled a bit) and most everything went down, including DVY (which I truly thought/believed) was fairly safe/conservative). I still kept my asset allocation--I just had less to allocate. Now, like many of us, I'm a bit ahead of where I was before the bad stuff happened.

And, what is it with you guys and the free drinks? Nords meet Moe. Moe meet Nords. Meet at the $25 blackjack table. If things don't go so well with these biotechs, I'll be the guy serving you the drinks. I won't be offended with an inappopriately large tip. Don't even give it a second thought.
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Old 04-19-2011, 08:54 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by redduck View Post
I did have an asset allocation plan, and it included DVY. Then something bad happened a few years ago (the market stumbled a bit) and most everything went down, including DVY (which I truly thought/believed) was fairly safe/conservative). I still kept my asset allocation--I just had less to allocate. Now, like many of us, I'm a bit ahead of where I was before the bad stuff happened.
And, what is it with you guys and the free drinks?
Maybe you need to figure out an asset allocation that you firmly believe in for your own reasons, and not just on the strength of the recommendations from a bunch of strangers on the Internet.

DVY was and is fairly safe & conservative, especially compared to the biotechs you're considering. That "bad thing" you're referring to had just about every asset class' correlations go to 1.0, although I suspect that DVY would've been slightly less bad than the biotechs you're considering. Maybe you should compare their 3-4-year histories and see how you feel about that volatility.

So perhaps the question you want to answer is how biotechs fit into your asset allocation plan, and then how the individual biotech stocks you're considering will fit into that asset class.

Or you could keep blaming us Internet strangers for steering you astray.
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Old 04-19-2011, 09:40 PM   #12
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Maybe you need to figure out an asset allocation that you firmly believe in for your own reasons, and not just on the strength of the recommendations from a bunch of strangers on the Internet.

DVY was and is fairly safe & conservative, especially compared to the biotechs you're considering. That "bad thing" you're referring to had just about every asset class' correlations go to 1.0, although I suspect that DVY would've been slightly less bad than the biotechs you're considering. Maybe you should compare their 3-4-year histories and see how you feel about that volatility.

So perhaps the question you want to answer is how biotechs fit into your asset allocation plan, and then how the individual biotech stocks you're considering will fit into that asset class.

Or you could keep blaming us Internet strangers for steering you astray.
Whoa, no blame at all. Actually, you guys tend to keep me in line when I have the urge to go astray. I appreciate that. And, if I stray off on occasion, well, I stray off on occasion. However, I really don't stray off all that far.
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Old 04-19-2011, 11:53 PM   #13
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Actually, this is pretty sound advice. Kumquat, did you mean it to be?
Pretty much. Biotechs are kinda risky and I hate risking $ I can't afford to lose.
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Old 04-20-2011, 08:55 AM   #14
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DW and I have been reluctant biotech investors for the past 10 years. We work/worked in Biotech and stock grants have always been part of our compensation. As a result, Biotech sometimes represented as much as 50% of our portfolio.

Overall, biotech has been very good to us. But it has been one hell of a ride. Most of our market gains for the past decade came from a single biotech stock. Our portfolio's average annual return since 2000 has been respectable at 13.8%. When taking out the gains from biotech stocks, our portfolio's average annual return falls to 4.2%. Now that we have made our money, I don't think I would voluntarily go back into biotech stocks in a big way.
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Old 04-20-2011, 11:45 AM   #15
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Whoa, no blame at all. Actually, you guys tend to keep me in line when I have the urge to go astray. I appreciate that. And, if I stray off on occasion, well, I stray off on occasion. However, I really don't stray off all that far.
No problem. And check your PMs!
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