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08-07-2010, 10:56 PM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 84
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Dow / s&p
Okay ............ so where we going now 8200 on the DOW?
that will mean a lower S&P as well.
Gold will stay up there.
Whata ya tink
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08-08-2010, 05:16 AM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 6,258
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by Florida
Whata ya tink
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I think that Equities depend upon better earnings, Currencies upon a weaker U.S. economy, Commodities on a stronger economy, Bonds on deflation, and Gold on inflation and instability. My signature lines should help guide your decision(s) as they do mine.
__________________
"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
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08-08-2010, 06:04 AM
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#3
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Administrator
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 23,038
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Florida
Okay ............ so where we going now 8200 on the DOW?
that will mean a lower S&P as well.
Gold will stay up there.
Whata ya tink
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Why do you think the Dow will drop to 8200? It seems a rather precise figure.
__________________
Living an analog life in the Digital Age.
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08-08-2010, 08:03 AM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: On a hill in the Pine Barrens
Posts: 9,720
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The OP is waiting for a double dip that will approximate the low of 2009 Q1.
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08-08-2010, 09:06 AM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 18,085
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I admire your confidence in your ability to predict the future.
As for the actual prediction, well...
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"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others."
- George Orwell
Ezekiel 23:20
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08-08-2010, 09:43 AM
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#6
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 2,083
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I believe there was someone else predicting DOW 8400 or so earlier in the summer?
And then the person that was absolutely certain the S&P would drop 20% within a few weeks ( a year ago April or so?). Then a month, then a couple of months, then S&P 740 by the end of Oct.
None of these came to pass.
Don't get me wrong, any of these things COULD happen. But betting everything that a certain result will happen is generally a loosing proposition.
My strategy is to be well diversified, so I don't care (much) if the DOW goes up or down or when it does so.
__________________
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.
(Ancient Indian Proverb)"
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08-08-2010, 03:34 PM
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#7
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 889
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My guess is that the US will have a non-recovery similar to Japan. I wouldn't be surprised if we are stuck in a rut for a decade or more.
We could certainly get inflation in imported goods and oil, but I really doubt we will get wage inflation, except in a few select areas (like STEM fields). Also, I am guessing that the politicians will want to export our way out of this by decreasing the dollar. So, I don't see the interest rate going up much at all.
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08-08-2010, 04:12 PM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 1,934
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My Eliot Wave has entered a death cross with my fibonacci sequence, indicating that stocks are likely either to rise or to fall sometime in the future.
__________________
And if I claim to be a wise man, it surely means that I don't know.
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08-08-2010, 04:24 PM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,588
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Onward
My Eliot Wave has entered a death cross with my fibonacci sequence, indicating that stocks are likely either to rise or to fall sometime in the future.
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Maybe.
__________________
I have outlived most of the people I don't like and I am working on the rest.
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08-08-2010, 05:40 PM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 26,893
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Onward
My Eliot Wave has entered a death cross with my fibonacci sequence, indicating that stocks are likely either to rise or to fall sometime in the future.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed_The_Gypsy
Maybe.
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-ERD50
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08-08-2010, 06:10 PM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 7,733
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I have picked up most of the pieces of my crystal ball which was attached to my views about dividends, and dropped by a black swan from 14,000 feet and came to rest on top of Haleakala at about 7800 feet. Nords found it and returned after it a grueling journey.
Sadly many pieces are missed at the cracks make it all very fuzzy but being more stubborn than wise. I believe we are in trading range between Dow 9800 and Dow 11,000 and am actually making minor portfolio corrections based on this belief . Ya'll can snigger now.
If we break out of this trading range on the upside or the downside, I don't have a clue, and have even less of an idea when it will occur.
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08-10-2010, 01:17 PM
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#12
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,860
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I think I can read sophisticated financial-analysis thread-starters like these on just about every Yahoo! stock board.
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Co-author (with my daughter) of “Raising Your Money-Savvy Family For Next Generation Financial Independence.”
Author of the book written on E-R.org: "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement."
I don't spend much time here— please send a PM.
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08-10-2010, 01:36 PM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
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My excitement is these matters usually gets going when regular season college and pro football starts.
Hmmmm? Hormones? eh?  
heh heh heh - meanwhile on full auto balanced index. However expect to venture some mad money come sept/oct ish. 
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08-10-2010, 03:29 PM
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#14
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Mid Hudson Valley
Posts: 1,781
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Doom! Gloom! Doom! Gloom! Close your eyes, can't you hear the drums? I can.
I pay attention to the noises in my head...
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In a panamax down by the river.
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08-10-2010, 04:08 PM
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#15
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Palma de Mallorca
Posts: 1,419
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Florida
Okay ............ so where we going now 8200 on the DOW? Whata ya tink
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I think that Dow futures are readily available. Let us know when you've bought some for 8200.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Florida
that will mean a lower S&P as well.
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Thanks for that, I'll call my broker and see if he was aware of it.
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08-10-2010, 04:10 PM
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#16
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Location: No fixed abode
Posts: 8,765
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Yay! He's back! Pssst Wellesley! 
__________________
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Anonymous (not Will Rogers or Sam Clemens)
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
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